Ben Sainsbury

Anyone can get any pictures of the line of storms?

ESTOFEX have issued a Level 2 for East Anglia, not much interest elsewhere in UK actually. http://www.estofex.org/

For those in western areas disappointed by lack of storms, do not worry we have a nice little treat Fri Night into Sat Morning which has gone under the radar. May produce some nasty thunderstorms for a time.

Gone very under the radar and haven't heard much, but the potential for a few nasty thunderstorms for us late Fri Night into early Sat Morning. Moderate CAPE, High DLS with the perfect trigger of the front looking interesting. Not a scenario I've really ever seen...

Looking east towards Bath/Wilts, understandable why showers are forming here.

Netweather lightning detector isn't real time; I'm using Blitzortung.

And our first strikes woooo!

A quick run down, whilst looking at the 3 Hi-Res models of the Netweather NMM, EURO4 & AROME, as can be seen initiation on the NMM & EURO4 take place at 3pm. NMM at 4pm. NMM & AROME are focusing its storm initiation over Lincolnshire. Whereas the EURO4 further northwards towards Hull. We could expect storms within the next hour!

Shower looks to have been initiated by an area of altocumulus castellanus and probably won't develop into much more at this time in the day. Expect little rainfall hitting the ground because of dry mid-levels evaporating much of the rainfall.

You are certainly are within the firing line although you may be at risk earlier in the day than most as the storms move northwards. Temperatures in your area are currently around the mid 20's. Tomorrow may provide a higher risk of storms for you.

Very well played with the current Met Office warning issued today and in line with my current thinking. Initiation should take place in connection with a developing convergence zone across Lincolnshire, along with temperatures in and around low to mid 30's, we could see some very explosive development & will be interesting to watch on the Sat24. Once we see lift off with the storms, I expect to see a sorta "chain reaction" where the outflow may initiate surrounding cells. Tomorrow (potential wise) looks incredible!

I'm still not sure if I agree with the Met Office for Thursday, I would've liked to have seen anywhere along and east of the M6 covered with the yellow warning along with much of East Anglia (though a lower risk here). I still feel there is the potential for many central areas. (Map Attached) We are continuing to see a further westward correction, with support from the AROME model suggesting many central areas may see something too. EURO4 is many concentrated towards Yorkshire with relatively no action anywhere south of Lincolnshire. The Netweather NMM probably the most widespread with any storms hugging the coastline and hence the extension towards East Anglia in my opinion. However must be noted the NMM generally performs relatively bad in regards to location of storms but moreso with imports than home-grown. I'll update on the Thurs night potential tomorrow.

Met Office warning area for Friday seems a little odd when the majority of attention from what I've seen is for the elevated imports on Thurs Night into Friday. However imports are considered much more uncertain to forecast than surface based. I would expect to see a yellow warning issued for Swindon eastwards touching the east coast for Thursday and Friday in the coming days as confidence grows. Haven't posted in a long while, but the excitement of the growing confidence of some "real" storms into Thursday and Friday means I shall return, excited to see what will take place even though much of the SW looks to miss out.

Quite surprised the rain band to the NW has also made it this far SE, I feel in Bristol we’re just the wrong side of the convergence zone. We shall see!

Now for extreme heat the GFS 6z is perfect, deepening of low towards Iberia allowing the heat to build across France to move Northwards. For a time the 22’c 850hpa isotherm skims the far SW incredible.

EURO4 and AROME both very underwhelming on the latest runs, EURO4 especially bad nothing of note for the rest of the UK after the recent rains in far SW.

An example of how dry the air is, currently Oxford has a negative 1 dew-point, incredible!

Incredible, 22'c by 9ish here I haven't seen that in a long long time. Again the BBC/MetO have undercooked temperatures as aren't expected to hit 22'c by at least 11am. Could we see a 30'c today!?

Looks like we’re gonna exceed the predicted maximum once again here, already 21’c, 23-24’c possible? Can definitely see 30’c hit next week.

Tom we are all inspired by your excitement, that's exactly what we want! In other news, I have lots of confidence for Scotland tomorrow, whenever ConvectiveWeather issue a MDT zone you know it's about to go down!

One post of few from the next few days as I'm very busy. Latest AROME run modelling the current precipitation very well tonight.

Particularly dangerous situation evolving now for Eastern Parts of Edinburgh, some extremely intense rainfall rates in excess of 150mm/hr approaching the area in next 15 minutes, wouldn't be surprised if one or two localised reports of 60-80mm or more in the next few hours. Looks like storm is back building too.

I'm intrigued to why you think parts of the West Country/Wiltshire into CS England are also at a higher risk of storms compared to other areas, not saying you're wrong at all just interested! Would agree with your other two risk areas though!

The storm potential today feels very similar to yesterday and hence why I believe ConvectiveWeather have only gone with a Slight over a Moderate. Obviously today as it appears CAPE values aren't quite to the same level as yesterday but only marginally lower (in & around slightly <1000J/kg). We also see a basic level of DLS again of up to 30knts from North England to Southern Scotland. Yesterday we saw the strongest and longer living storms across much of Oxford and into the Midlands, these storms were marginally more organised because of the additional DLS which many other didn't have. Therefore as you see below, I favour much of the far North of England into Southern Scotland as my location of interest today. We already have a small cumulus field developed towards Edinburgh due to a good amount of surface heating already. May possibly see a greater frequency of lightning today compared to yesterday too.

I personally think the Met Office issued the Amber warning far too early, as they primarily based their risk zone on models and not as the situation was evolving. The Amber warning placed over the Midlands a few days ago, was placed after the storms formed and merged for longer spells of rain. That being said here in South Bristol, we weren’t under the majority of showers and had some very torrential rain at times so I’m not complaining just my opinion. I wonder what today provides...