Ben Sainsbury
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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury
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Do you have corresponding 850hpa temps for the ECM Mean for that particular time?
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Typically rainfall to snow accumulation ratios are what, 1:8 or 1:10? so 20mm would correspond to 16/20cm of snowfall within a 6 hour period.. WOW.
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Apologies, here is the Scotland accumulations up until Wednesday 9am also.
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ECM Snow Accumulation Amounts - Wednesday 9am. (ECM accumulations all falling snow, so slightly overdone) From this I expect 2-3cm along M4 Corridor, 3-5cm along coast & 5-8cm across far SE.
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Netwx MR Model - Snow Risks till Friday: Sunday: Back-edge sleet/snow? Monday: Feature moving across UK, snow risk highest north. Tuesday: Precipitation clips south coast, no notable snow. Thursday: Heavy snow to rain event, the back to snow.
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And GFS Parallelish
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Remarkable consistency from GFS Parallel bringing another widespread snow event Tuesday night.
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I already get the vibe the GFS P is going to deepen the first low up a lil again and not leave it like the OP run.
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GFS Parallel coming next... The last few runs of the GFS P have been remarkably snowy so we shall wait and see what it lays on our tables! It has always been quite keen to deepen the low pressure for Tuesday's event!
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Whilst the feature at T72 on GFS 12z is a lot shallower this run compared to ICON 12z, it helps pep up the snow showers running across England so even these could be heavy and widespread.
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GFS Parallel a positive step forward on the 6z, low is 5mb shallower and is further south, almost like a jelly bean shape at T120!
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Widespread 10-15cm on that run easily!
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It’s certainly not a million miles away, we just really don’t want the low to deepen any further and as you could see it’s at least 5mb deeper this run which will lead to consequences later on.
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Even this shortwave is tracking southwards.
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Quite possibly & we should all remember that whilst these lows might track quite far south, there will be numerous small features forming within this polar air bringing a few surprises at short notice. A small feature when areas of the SE last week brought to 6-7cm in places. If we see several of these move through the UK next week who knows...!!!
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T90: T114:
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ICON 18z bringing a snow event as a front moves eastwards at T90, this bringing the goodies to Midlands southwards. Another small slider event at T114, south of the M4 only.
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FV3 shows a very snowy Southern England, Tuesday night into Wednesday. Uppers well on our side of marginal.
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Typically when looking at precipitation type charts, if you want to approximate accumulations, normally 10mm of rain accumulating corresponds to 100mm of snowfall accumulation. So a ratio of snow 10:1 rain, therefore 10mm corresponds to 10cm of snowfall. This is ratio can vary however depending on air mass and direction of wind.
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Yes this! And this is where one recent event springs to mind. Until we’re at T48-72 regarding the low then I expect no less than more changes.
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Led the way when models were picking up the potential easterly and then led the way when it decided to drop the easterly
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Snowfall possibilities for the south look good on ICON 18z, from T63 through T120, the uppers remain around or colder than -5 at 850hpa so not a bad start!
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By T132 on the ICON 12z, the building blocks are in place for a decent north-easterly by T180... hopefully! Azores high moving westwards with heights extending towards Greenland, Arctic high beginning to edge south and low heights moving into Southern Europe.
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I do have slight random coverings here but obviously am much further east compared to you. -
Yes the snow flakes are so huge, literally feathers like someone said.
