Ben Sainsbury
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Everything posted by Ben Sainsbury
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AROME 12z looking great as well, 5-10cm widely, 20-25cm over Welsh hills.
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Warning matrix suggests an increase in confidence will result in an amber so...
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When confidence increases, I expect an amber to be in place for much of Wales and the moors of the SW.
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Hardly any snow from Midlands north, M4 southwards should have no worries because this accounts for further southerly corrections between now and the event.
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EURO4 6z looking good yet again for tomorrow, areas seeing 6 hours+ of snow in places. Looking at 5-10cm widely!
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EURO4 finally reaches the next potential significant snow event for England but only reaches the M4 corridor at T48. Dewpoints clearly below 0 or all; 850hpa temps below -5 excluding far SW & winds off the continent, looking good!
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You don't want to look at ARPEGE even more underwhelming... From what I've seen tho ARPEGE tend to underestimate the amount of snow.
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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 07/11/2018
Ben Sainsbury replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Regional
It has been snowing here in Reading for a long while, but relatively weak so has not settled. However it appears the front intensified a little as it passed by. Good luck all -
Turning to sleet now at Reading Uni.
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Temperature has dropped 0.7'c in 10 minutes here as its now dropped to 3.9'c, dew-points still remains at 2.3'c
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Currently on campus at the moment and the first few specs of rain are falling though much seems to be evaporating before reaching the ground. Current temperature of 5.1'c and a dew-point of 2.3'c which has bizarrely gone up in the past hour. Though sun is setting now so fingers crossed.
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For all towards Somerset and Devon, watch out for the Bristol Channel streamer tonight, may prove to have more potential of accumulating snow tonight than the front passing through atm.
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But then we’re in a never ending cycle of searching for cold in FI, when in reality some cold and snow is right on our doorsteps, seems perfectly reasonable that 95% of people are focusing on the next 3 days. We have cold NOW why look ahead 10 days for it. I don’t get it lol.
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By T72 a significant movement south of the -4'c isotherm potential for many more to see snow further south along with those further north. Could be a widespread event! EDIT: The whole front just loses its energy...
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ICON 18z seem very few comment on it so far, but just at T24 the low and any precipitation are noticeably northwards still! Lots like more coming into play! And by T63 the next low is definitely sliding, good signs!
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Don't even want to post the Netweather Hi-Res model for Tuesday 4pm... Um extremely underwhelming but typically this model doesn't perform too well.
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The simple answer is yes!
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Wouldn't take much on the ICON 18z for the same shift northwards as it was from the 12z and we'd be looking at some SIGNIFICANT accumulations across much of England. EDIT: For a time it actually develops a tiny hidden feature just off the SE coast!
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By T33 on the ICON 18z there are already hints of the low being a tad further northwards as a result of it being a little deeper too!
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Not that I can see, if there is one it may have formed after it goes to lower res so I cannot view.
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Here is the NetWx Hi-Res model, this is as far as it goes for now however. Chart is for Tuesday at midday, 3, 6 & 9pm. The lower res goes on to show this...
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Indeed the ICON 12z is a touch south, but the features over the UK remain and the outcome is relatively similar. For the system on Thursday the low remains a little shallower at the moment and so less warm air is dragged into the system.
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ECM has the best verification stats on average for the entire globe; nobody can be sure on its verification for our part of the world. Also the ECM hasn't performed particularly great this winter either especially regarding the last fortnight or so.
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A few frames later and the next slider doesn't seem to phased as much with the low to the North of the UK, hinting possibly at a slightly shallower low on Thursday.
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Obviously because of all our home biases, being in Reading, the ECM mean is probably a little too north for for an all snow event for M4 southwards, so a southward correction would be welcomed. I don't think I've found a potential snow event so nerve-wracking before! Can we all compromise here, Tuesday = Midlands southwards & Thursday = Midlands northwards?
