Ben Sainsbury

ESTOFEX have a very talented bunch of forecasters, but imo I don't feel they pay much attention to the UK. Regardless, It's just clear they're too busy at the moment to issue a forecast for Europe as they're voluntary.

ECM 12z increasingly unstable for Mon-Wed now. Tuesday has 1200J/Kg across Central England which is some of the highest I've seen from the model for our shores.

Due to the highly unstable and relatively moist atmopshere, storms could pop up almost anywhere from Sunday night to Tuesday night in my opinion. Just have to hope any crud from elevated thunderstorms doesn't inhibit any strong/severe convection the following day.

It's not always that easy to understand, but the UKV is linked to the UKMO. The UKV utilizes the boundary conditions from the UKMO, so effectively the UKV will use the bigger picture (outside the map boundaries of the model) from the UKMO and then runs its own forecast based on the boundary conditions at that time (I think that's how it works).

Just thought I'd take a little bit of a deeper look into the Thunderstorm Risk for Sunday/Early Next Week. Saturday night would expect a few elevated thunderstorms to approach S Ireland/far SW England but nothing too much of note at this point. Sunday we see some quite large CAPE developing across Ireland and less so for N England/Scotland. I'd expect a combination of strong surface heating/convergence zone/orographic lifting to initiate scattered thunderstorms, possibly strong/severe at times given modest DLS over Ireland. By Sunday night, as the low gradually drifts a touch eastwards, I would expect storms to become increasingly elevated as the boundary layer cools with some impressive lightning shows right across the Irish Sea and up towards NW England/Scotland, given the magnitude of MUCAPE. Monday looks to have a more widespread thunderstorm risk, with large instability (for UK standards). With a slack low sat right over the UK, wind shear will likely be weak, however given the magnitude of instability, some strong thunderstorms are likely to develop again; this time across much of England, Wales and into S Scotland. Shear across NW England/N Wales is less weak, so some organisation is possible for a time here. Storms becoming increasingly elevated overnight. The last day I'm going to cover is Tuesday given there are still uncertainties on the positioning of the low near the UK. However, I would expect a similar day to Monday albeit the risk transferring a bit further south. Strong thunderstorms developing once again, however as the low pulls south there are some indications that modest wind shear will exist across C/E England. Assuming this (UKV) to be the case, then multicellular development is possible with the potential to upscale into a homegrown MCS into the evening. Flash flooding, prolific lightning and relatively large hail are the likely risks. But at this stage, this is all speculation and to be taken with a large pinch of salt. That saying, there is relatively good agreement between the models for Monday at least to be a fairly active day, some a close eye is being kept on model developments over the next few days.

Good model consistency now for more widespread thundery activity Monday/Tuesday than there was a few days ago. Relatively large magnitude of instability forecast on majority of the models.

From what I've seen, models have been firming up on a few scattered thunderstorms from Monday-Wednesday. Airmass still warm, so probably a loaded gun setup with the risk of homegrown elevated storms overnight. At the moment N Wales, Peak District and up to the Lake District seems most at risk so far, but obviously a good 5 days out yet.

Quite possibly, but I guess there is no concrete way of knowing! This has to be the worst year for homegrown activity that I can remember.

Models have been performing quite poor lately regarding any convective activity. Though at the moment today seems to be going to plan. Ed is right though, ConvectiveWeather for example is probability of lightning within a 25 mile radius. That's actually quite a large area and too often people will see they're under a SLGT for example and expect to see a storm when in reality that's only approx 30-45% chance of lightning with 25 miles.

I'm not sure I agree with these statements. Technically, you want it windy higher up because this is effectively what wind shear is. Even if it is windy as the surface, it has a negligible impact on storm development. Personally, I wouldn't say there is more chance of storms today... if anything I'd say the opposite. But the important thing to note today, is the difference in storms. Those yesterday was elevated thunderstorms whereas today we're expecting a few surface-based thunderstorms.

I'm not entirely sure it's going to be as active as some other forecasters suggest. I'm a bit skeptical about chasing today, but will make the drive should a cell become organised enough to utilise some upper level wind shear, though am working this evening eek!

Well that's good news at least!

Gonna pose a problem then as they move inland.

Quite a lot of lightning strikes given the precipitation rates on the radar, just shows how high the cloud bases are and how much precipitation is evaporating before it hits the ground.

Ignore, wrong thread.

UKV 9z still wants to kick off an isolated but severe surface-based thunderstorm across East Midlands into NE England next hour or two.

Even if skeptical of Charlwood, it's now approaching .5C above the record and temperatures continuing to rise, it's inevitable to break record anyway.

Hearing 38.8C has been provisionally hit now.

Such a flawed system if that is the case, ugh.

I've just been using Weatherobs WEATHEROBS.COM Global weather observations (METAR, SYNOP, BUOY, SHIP, TAF, CWOP) decoded to enable display of latest temperatures, weather, snow depths, precipitation, wind and wave conditions and more

Yep 37.6C.

It's all to play for.

Very close to that 100F. With higher 850s continuing to progress northwards, I'd expect at least 2 or even 3 hours of heating left to go.

UKV 9z for late this afternoon/evening is marginally warmer than UKV 6z, which is good for record-breaking temps as I'd imagine new data/observations have been fed into the 9z run. So 38C is increasingly likely and a little more confident we may break our record than I was earlier.