summer blizzard

1.2 bounced back up but 3.4 stayed the same. Another westerly burst strangely.

All models tonight vary between average and poor in days 5-15 for me, certainly not a stunning set of runs for July..

Not an inspiring run as we see at the day 5, 10 and 15 intervals..

Oh dear. These runs lack the channel low type floods of 07/12 but they are some of the worst summer runs i have seen.

Given the poor modelling, what do we have to work with for sub-15C values to the 10th in terms of year.

As optimistic as GFS is the Euro and GEM don't really go with it..

Geronimo... As alluded to previously easterlies have both expanded and strengthened causing upwelling and we've seen a quick dive in readings by 0.5C for 1.2 and 0.6C for 3.4. Current readings then.. 1.2: -0.1 3.4: -0.4 La Nina on the way.

Lower me to an average 16.7C.

Christ, it's not even July. Fodder storms but its only a matter of time before one of these unusually aggressive waves is ready as far west as the Antilles.

1.2 has cooled but 3.4 increased to 0.2 according to the NOAA. Easterlies returning though as the current westerly wind burst ends so i'd expect another round of cooling to begin in the next week or two.

We have Tropical Depression 4. Will only be over water another 24-48 hours though so probably a name waster.

Pencil me in for 17.7C. A wet month but a warm one due to minima.

I suspect it's just a bit of luck on the timing in terms of actual development, the B&C storms both formed during the last period of Pacific divergence which in the near Tropics (Atlantic) probably produced a La Nina like signal (lower pressures, more convergence). This one is a bit more weird in that the Pacific is seeing convergence and westerlies so development should be unlikely in the Caribbean. The better question is why these waves are making it across the Atlantic strong enough to actually develop. So far as we can see the MJO has not been especially active over Indonesia so we are not seeing an especially unusual frequency of waves dropping off Africa and nor should the Atlantic be massively favourable to survival (though it may suggest an enhanced Cape Verde season perhaps?). Perhaps one of the boffins who knows more about Kelvin and walker cells and whatever else will be able to give us an answer.

Been watching it in recent days but development was unsure.

Having looked around at the data i don't consider the coming La Nina to be under much threat from this rise, it looks temporary as it's mainly being driven by a converging wave and associated westerly wind burst. The next area of divergence is already progressing from the west and should strengthen the easterlies causing further declines in time. I would be highly doubtful that June as a whole will register a rise even if the next update or two do. I'm with the dynamic over statistical models with this one.

Once again the GFS parks the high west of the Azores and then just keeps it there the entire run. The Euro shows what happens when that ridge starts to amplify.

An interesting GFS18z, the Azores high from day 5 to 16 basically parks itself in the same place and just stays there. Strong evidence of a westerly dominated pattern if that's the case though with the troughs and transient ridge extensions fighting it out.

2005 and 2011 both had 32C hit before the solistace.

Strange to see how much 1.2 has jumped around although its interesting that 3.4 rose too.

That's a chart from Bonnie. It formed and gave us rain.

I suspect the GFS and Euro are right but in the interest of balance they may be thinking something like the GEM..

Interesting outputs suggesting the warmest June since 06 may be likely. I'm still very wary of this warm June not been born out during most of the summer though with the analogues posted a few pages ago for shadowing that.

GFS is a little better than the Euro but loses pretty quickly. The outlook to day 10 is cyclonic and given the potential for showers, probably fairly wet.

A lot of optimism in this thread but to be honest, only the Euro looks remotely acceptable by day 10. This may not be 07 but it's pretty poor for the next third of June.

Lovely weather Sunday-Tuesday albeit it was too warm last night. Cloud has increased here this morning and Friday now looks a washout so i suspect those of us in West Yorkshire will have probably seen the best of it yesterday even if it stays warm for the remainder of the week. It's notable that whichever model you look at, those heights to the north seem to be ever present.