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summer blizzard

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Everything posted by summer blizzard

  1. summer blizzard
    Anything for today?
  2. summer blizzard
    Glorious. We've got full thunder and lightening.
  3. summer blizzard
    Rain but no thunder or lightening.
  4. summer blizzard
    Radar shows one has formed east of me annoyingly.
  5. summer blizzard
    Shower developing just to my south but probably going to pass before it produces. Grey cloud everywhere though.
  6. summer blizzard
    Uplift west and east of Sheffield!
  7. summer blizzard
    cheese Yes. As noted previously there's a chance this will just ride the western Pennies but I'm relatively sure that the gap between the Peak District and Pennies should work to our favour in helping it across since the flow is east of north.
  8. summer blizzard
    Gray-Wolf Current track is NNE so I'm cautiously optimistic for west and south Yorkshire.
  9. summer blizzard
    WYorksWeather Movement is NNE so I suspect the modelling struggles with interaction with the Pennies. That will dictate if it makes it over.
  10. summer blizzard
    Movement looks NNE from the Bristol to Birmingham cell as it develops. Not sure about here but I'd be very excited if I were in Stoke On Trent or Manchester. Once this starts riding the Peak District, it may well become significant.
  11. summer blizzard
    Starting to tower.
  12. summer blizzard
    WeatherArc Fantastic cloudscape. Looks like it should get going somewhere near the West Midlands.
  13. summer blizzard
    Puffy and dark ish but no towers here.
  14. summer blizzard
    Dark cloud already here but fairly flat. Extremely humid. I assume we expect nothing today.
  15. summer blizzard
    Addicks Fan 1981 -QBO was not sufficiently developed to have much impact last summer. Most strong ISH El Nino's don't produce great summers and the -PDO probably had more impact than the QBO.
  16. summer blizzard
    Addicks Fan 1981 Tropics will be dead towards months end.
  17. summer blizzard
    Yes, here in BD19 we've seen thunder, lightening and a degree of hail although mostly rain.
  18. summer blizzard
    Is any of this thundery, it's pretty muggy for what the sensor says is 18C.
  19. summer blizzard
    Addicks Fan 1981 Thought you'd like this. It will probably change so don't base a forecast or anything meaningful from it but for the first time, the GFS is forecasting a wall of trades to be strong enough to kill the progression of convection across the Pacific. Notice the fairly vertical blue just east of the dateline.
  20. summer blizzard
    Addicks Fan 1981 As Don says, cycle 25 is stronger than 24 but below 23 which was almost statistically bang on average. One hemisphere already peaked so 2025 is likely to see the outright peak but after the first hemispheric peak you normally start to level. I also doubt that solar activity produces warm months overall. Enhanced westerlies in winter are warm but in summer are potentially cool at our latitude.
  21. summer blizzard
    No 20C here as yet, not especially late though. Hopefully a signal.
  22. summer blizzard
    24APR2024: Nino3: 0.6, Nino3.4: 0.8, Nino4: 0.9 April ONI is +0.9.
  23. summer blizzard
    Suspect the model differences relate to the progression of convection through the Pacific. Although I don't have the Euro chart, the GFS has weakened this a lot in recent days though it is still progressing.
  24. summer blizzard
    WYorksWeather I'd be pretty dubious of that and suggest it's likely noise rather than signal. That is to say that years with a late final warming and stronger than average vortex may be followed by a +AO but the forner is not likely the cause. I don't really see much reason why slightly weaker net easterlies in the stratosphere would result in westerlies further down the troposphere. They are still trying to impinge net easterlies on the troposphere.
  25. summer blizzard
    Addicks Fan 1981 Posted earlier in this thread but essentially the La Nina's that are not declared by JJA on ONI tend to be relatively blocked with the Azores High close to the UK. 2016 was in that group. La Nina's which go guns blazing tend to have a cyclonic July and August and end up stronger on average. Currently we are marginally on course to be in the slower group (dropping around 0.3 per month).
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