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Shiny_Bottom_1

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  1. As the information was for a newbie, I would just like to correct this. The ECM Op is one of the milder runs, up until about Monday next week (varying on days). It however is not an outlier, and has clear support for the same time frame from the control run. In fact, for tomorrow it has support from most of the other members, only a few on Thursday (op is a milder member), and then most of the members again on Friday. It is from Saturday is loses the majority support, but again the control run is quite parallel to the operational run. But they do all go for something similar by around Tuesday. However, if you are looking for cold, from Saturday onwards, more and more of the ECM members go for colder temps (for the Netherlands just to point out, in case your were wondering where they were based too).
  2. Interesting to note, whilst there was not a major difference on the 06z 850 profiles on the GFS, it was quite widely missed that the Op run was actually one of the driest, for example, here. I'm still, and always have been, dubious of the ppn being snow, bar above around 500m (give or take -200m), but the ppn was really there on the 06z...just looking in the wrong place. Agree though that the GFS may be wrong (has it has been quite a bit in this time frame, but not exclusively), as the UKMO showed the front decaying. Who knows, it may work out alright, but personally, I would say "Computer says...no" - bar the higher ground of course. If its the case, then funnily enough, inside the mid term projections, the GFS would have spotted Wednesday well, but faultered in the <T+48 time frame.
  3. In that first article, second paragraph, the result of the winter snow was similar. Whilst northern parts of Derbyshire has had some decent snow, down here in the southern parts, there was much less. Interesting article Mr D.
  4. Before people start jumping down Richards throat, what perhaps we need to watch is, no matter the name (Bartlet, Azores, Euro), is that High Pressure is sitting to our south. We are presuming that high pressure will be more dominant from the east, because...well...the jet etc are forecast as such. But the jet and pressure forecast are linked, no matter how many times I mention it, it is still used as a reason why there can't be a different outcome. Teleconnections, and influences outside of what the models show, such as the thoughts of GP/CM/BFTP/RJS, use this and for me, show a far less biased view on the outcome. Some teleconnections favour a colder scenario, but some do favour a milder scenario. But, the longevity of both, is not being stated, but there is an assumption on a milder scenario, people assume that it would be a south HP for months. Never assume! But back to the high pressure situation. People are talking about there being nothing mild in the charts, but in the same breath, there is nothing cold similar to what we have experienced either (or cold to the same scale as what people rant their worries on when someone mentions mild/milder). My issue is, why can't somebody discuss a mild potential, especially when there is a pressure in a position to potentially deliver this (and this is all thats been pointed out...the potential), yet anybody can discuss a cold potential (again, potential). I understand its winter, and I would much prefer cold to mild (and average), but we need to inject some realism. This is a thread to discuss the models, but, and i'm glad, we discuss our personal opinions (or instinct if you want to call it that). But there is too much emphasis on jumping on peoples backs when they note their opinions, when it isn't about what others want to show. Again, the points made about the high pressure to our south, is about the potential, not the deliverance (the same as people are discussing the potential of the high to our east, not the deliverance). This is why it gets on my wick, because there are quite often too many double standards (in this is much more emphasised in winter). I could go on for ages about my own annoyances on how people both perceive their own opinions, and how they criticise others, but the crux is, for these reasons, I hardly post in this thread anymore. Its not worth it, when you give a balanced (mild or cold) view, if you don't have a clique of followers. Because if you says the word 'mild' or 'milder', you're perceived as being a 'mildie' or 'wind up merchant'. It bores me, and I find at times some of the posts on here childish and 'band-wagon' style. Anyway, i've said before, and i'll say again. Watch the High Pressure to our south. Do not presume i'm talking about heat waves, or particularly hugely above average temps, but watch it. I do not see it going anywhere fast, just as much as (at the moment) I do not see the high pressure to our East particularly making it over all of the UK or for a long period of time. The pressure to our south, may, in the long run, be to our benefit. In the mean time, low pressure from our west looks the most predominant feature.
  5. Come on Dave Thats a slight stretch to what you said yesterday:
  6. Not actually sure how mild charts could have been posted, as there haven't been any that have embedded the UK? But then if they had, and had been posted, it would have been just as relevant as posting a cold chart. A balance is needed when posting these charts, not just one that we wish to see. Looking at Wednesday, for the whole 24 hour period, based on the the GFS 12z, neither the 850's, 500's dew points, T2m temps, ppn intensity, 0oC Isotherm or ppn type support anything bar some snow over the northern UK hills about 500m - unless i've missed something on analysing the charts. A short period of lower dew points (0-3 hours) unfortunately happens when there is no ppn about. Stranger things have happened, but instinct of these situations, where this has fallen as snow, is not something that is quantifiable, and is such, is not something we should get the hopes up of those reading this thread. It is the model discussion after all... Slightly off topic, but also a quick question on your gull forecasting. If there is a large flock of gulls, what is the time frame you apply to the cold actually hitting?
  7. Regarding Wednesdays event, looking a the GFS 12z 850's, 500's, dewpoint, T2M temps, ppn intensity and ppn type, I can't see support for snow bar the far northern hills (outside of our region). I would say a chilly day, but a chilly and wet day (similar to Thursday).
  8. I'd probably say a decent chance tomorrow for your location. As you say above, a good location for ppn being snow due to ASL. Can't believe those pics of the A54. Heard the A53 from Leek to Buxton was bad. Due to the lack of snow here, was considering going up from here to Leek, Macclesfield on to Holmes Chapel, and then up the M6/56 to Warrington. That was until I heard the road was closed due to snow drifts (this Monday). Used to live in Wilmslow, and used to love going to the peaks in the winter. A little further now living in South Derbyshire, but intend on still coming over the next month of so. Mind you, i'm in Denmark and Slovakia over the next 4 weeks, so if I don't see any decent snow by then, i'll be gutted. BTW - like the BV206 :lol:
  9. <_< We didnt even get that in 20 days, let alone 20 minutes
  10. But there are many many people on here Dave who let go of the 12z bar on the monkey frame, and then jump to swinging on the 06z. There needs to be consistancy by people when reading the models and claiming which is the most reliable. I will agree the colder air is further west on this run (compared to yesterdays 12z at T+114), but if we want to talk about reliability, then we should wait for the UKMO which has proven recently (from a post yesterday) as the most reliable in this sort of time frame. I would also prefer to wait for the ensembles to see the agreement...it might be there, but it might not. The GFS Op run is one of dozens from just the GFS and ECM.
  11. Looks like the fog is making a difference. Outside of it, I got to the (compared to recently) dizzy heights of 5oC. Nice to see still a good covering of snow driving along the M1 between jnctn 22 to 23. Postcode NN9 (Kettering) and DE73 (Derby) appear to have had the same problem over the last few weeks...not much lying snow Still, my foot square of snow is still there, although now down to 1/2 a foot square.
  12. Well I see snow outside...albeit my last remaining square foot of it Should be some interesting potential for at least some wintriness over the next 7 days. May be not snow, but perhaps not rain either. Its more of a low fluctation around the normal temps.
  13. Ahhhh...but if things 'could only shift a few hundred miles west', then could it not go the other way as well?!
  14. See above...possible, and been showing since his morning. I would say more wintry than snow, but better than naught.
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