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Everything posted by Retron

  1. No need to faff around with Dutch ensembles - the UK ones have updated just fine. ECMWF 14-day ensemble weather forecast for London WEATHER.US London, England, United Kingdom - The ideal weather forecast for the next 14 days. See the results of all 50 ensemble members of the ECMWF model in direct...
  2. Oh yes you can. Here's a ready-reckoner chart which I've used for many a year - the source site for the raw data was posted a while back. (It shows the percentage chance of snow and I did it after a thread on TWO years ago where I suggested that if the temperature and dewpoint added together came to zero or less, there was a good chance of snow. Turns out that it's a good rough estimate.)
  3. For those wondering, that Estuary in-fill is powder snow - and it's hitting the ground and blowing around, rather than insta-melting as this morning's snow did. Lovely stuff!
  4. Erm, yeah, which is what I said! (Bearing in mind that was 20 minutes ago, which means my original comment relates to an hour ago...) Good to see, anyway. I was wondering whether we'd see much in-fill given the warnings.
  5. It's been going for the last 40 minutes or so - ranging from extremely light snow to light snow, with such shallow convection that the radar doesn't always pick it up! I'd imagine it'll get a bit heavier as time goes by! It's also powder snow by the looks of it rather than the sopping wet stuff that fell earlier. Here in Leysdown (east end of Sheppey, on that map) the temperature's now an impressive -0.4!
  6. Wow - jackpot! http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack0a.gif (That's a convergence line, rare as hen's teeth).
  7. Nope. Freezing rain is in fact supercooled rain (i.e. still liquid below zero, not having had time to refreeze into an ice pellet). It turns to ice on hitting anything, whether that surface is below zero or not.
  8. That's not Norwich, it's Sheerness in 1987, the other end of the Isle from me. (Of course, I couldn't actually get to Sheerness as we were cut off for a week, with bread and milk airlifted in. It was great as an 8-year-old!)
  9. Polar low alert with GFS! GEM also has one, but the model seems to have a lower res and so you can't see the tell-tale cut-off small circulation. Note that the models will not be resolving these features properly at this range, but it's an exciting thing to see anyway - it shows conditions are ripe for them to form. If one heads in your direction you'd be in for a memorable amount of snow!
  10. Here's a cropped version of the 12z GEFS for London. These are the coldest ensembles I've ever seen for London, and that's going back to the late 90s. Sadly I didn't know about ensembles in 1997, as I suspect that was the last time we saw such cold values.
  11. As ever down here, Feb 86 brought plenty of snow. My grandpa had died and for whatever reason the funeral went from our house... my dad and other mourners had to clear the road of snow so that the hearse could leave, as it got stuck in the snow. I was 6 at the time and didn't really know what it was all about, but I enjoyed the snow even if everyone else was down in the dumps! This part of the world used to be amazing in easterlies. I suspect it still would be, if we ever got them.... which is why the potential of a deep cold easterly in a week's time is exciting!
  12. Depth peaked at 15cm or so here, but it was a world of "drip drip drip" and the snow was melting even as it was falling... no ice days, you see, and the dew point kept going up to or just above zero. Great for forming big sticky flakes, but rubbish for forming a good base of snow. What's interesting then is, like now, the models were showing negative double-digit dewpoints and next to no convection. What actually happened was plenty of convection, but with it came much higher dewpoints than modelled. Something to bear in mind should the current mega-cold charts come off! The attached
  13. While you rummage around, here's the ensemble output just before the cold spell of 2010 started. They're for "London", from WZ, which is closer to the Isle of Wight than London IIRC! FWIW, the mean eventually ended up at -10/-11 for 3 days by the 29th November.
  14. Thank you, it'd be nice to see if only to prove that we can still get long-fetch continental easterlies. It's been a hell of a long time, after all. With the wording of the Met Office update, it looks like they're taking the ensemble output seriously. Although the focus will undoubtedly be in the south and east, as they mention snow could pop up almost anywhere. If we do in fact end up with -15C 850s, I'd expect convective activity to be widespread given the stronger sunshine we're now enjoying... hopefully everyone would see at least a bit of snow.
  15. Ah, the reason I mentioned 2005 is because I live in Kent - that was the last time we saw syntopics similar to this, ie a long-lived easterly spell. I was lucky enough to see some snow out of that 2005 spell, but I know many areas missed out completely. At least if things pan out the way they're looking at the moment there would be more widespread snow and - with temperatures a degree or two down on 2005 - whatever falls would probably linger too.
  16. Hah, no - I'm Retron here as well, albeit I usually just lurk. I guess there are quite a few of us who use both forums! Mind you, both forums are absolutely buzzing today. As I said on TWO, it really does look like 2005 all over again... although to be fair the ensemble output from both GEFS and EPS is colder than it was then. EDIT: And thank you, Chionomaniac - yes, maybe I will post a bit on here!
  17. We do have one, thanks to weather.us: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017120800/great-britain/temperature-925mb/20171210-1200z.html (That has pretty much all the parameters, in 3-hourly intervals)
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