anthonym

So, classic wave 2 response reaching top of stratosphere in about a week. Around that time, we may have some tropospheric players in-place to favor a wave 1 (N. Atlantic High / a brief return of the Aleutian Low). The uncertainty, there, will be if their transient nature reduces the amount of meridional heat flux. The deformation from the wave 2 seems to allow the Siberian-end of the dipole to wind-up the strongest. A wave 1 could help push it back towards the pole and consolidate/reconfigure the PV again? Or will the next wave 1 further break the beast down? By the way, MJO-modeling right now is terrible. I would caution against its use. The wave is around phase 3 or so and will be propagating through Indonesia / W. Pac next week or so.

Besides what chio said here structurally, you also have the issue of advection and location. At this early stage, the vortex being pushed slightly closer to Siberia will cause even more irreversible heat transfer, as parcels radiatively cool more than if it was just climo. In fact, notice in the upper stratosphere the "warmer" temperatures over Europe currently become abruptly cold as they move over Siberia in 3+ days. This is exactly the process described.

Yes, this is true, especially in a regional sense. Easterly wind anomalies basically slow the Earth down, causing +AAM to be transferred from the solid Earth to the air. In the case of mountain ranges, a surface low anomaly to the west of it (and high to the east) will cause a net easterly over the mountain range and slow the Earth even further than if it were just the mountain range alone. So a negative frictional torque and a positive mountain torque contribute to regional +AAM anomalies. The correlation with the AO is actually not so clear-cut; and, in fact, the +MT showed a +AO tendency in some research. This is because the +MT increases the net Mid Latitude westerlies over time, intensifying the jet and PV. There exists an internal AAM cycle across the Mid Latitudes that occasionally is independent of the tropical source to mid latitude sink cycle we are accustomed to (tropical forcing). The internal cycle is simply mid latitude (mainly over the ocean) frictional sinks eating the momentum produced by the mountains in the same latitude-belt. So, not all +MT events are created equal and not all will occur with, and/or lead to, a +GLAAM/meridional flow. I hope this helped.

First of all, I want to introduce myself: I am Anthony but you may know me better as "HM" from Americanwx. I just wanted to say hello and tell you all what a great thread this is and that I regularly read it. Finally, I agree with your last sentence here. I'm trying to warn everyone here in the eastern US to wait it out and that mild bouts will likely continue through the end of the month.