John Badrick
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Posts posted by John Badrick
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not really let down, only snow was really going to be for Scotland, not expecting any here, generally a 'mild' night predicted for the south on Saturday with rain as a warm front moves down from the north
Mild on Saturday ? Where did you get that from??? It's gonna be anything but mild on Saturday, pretty much everywhere in the Uk including the south!
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Plenty of changes still afoot. I think there's some exciting times to come from the models, detail still to be decided for the weekend.
and plenty of excitement from the guys over in the strat thread. something afoot up in the stratosphere which wasn't really expected this early on,
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No mention of any wintery ppn even on the moors from david braine tonight when discussing the weekend. I wonder if he is waiting for more info before "worrying" the local population......
Are you expecting any action regarding snow with you over the weekend fk? Wondering if it'll be worth a trip to Princetown on Sunday? Will keep an eye on the Dartcam with interest!
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Agreed - but everyone who knows a bit about our weather knows that we sit right on the boundary between continental cold and maritime warmth throughout our winter, and tiny adjustments in patterns can have a massive difference for us. When the atlantic is in charge then outside of the Highlands we struggle to see snow... but every single winter without fail we get periods of meridional flow that throw up all kinds of potential. My memory is littered with these. So people need to chill out a bit (no pun intended) and wait patiently for these opportunities to occur. 9 out of 10 times these will disappoint most people because rain rather than snow is our default setup... but it is those glorious 1 in 10 moments where the thicknesses are just right that we look forward to. And be in no doubt - we will have chances again this year.
For my part I'm very glad to see November mild and westerly. Our patterns rarely stay fixed for long - occasionally we will have a few weeks dominated by one weather type, but not often. On that basis if we had blocking now we would be looking at a change once we get into winter proper. Let's have mobility now - indeed let's have it right up until the second half of December... and then the change when it comes has a chance of giving us air cold enough to make a difference,
In the meantime we just have to suffer the gloomy twerps who enjoy telling us - as if we dont already know - that our dominant weather type is westerly and hence usually mild for our line of latitude. I dont quite know why they bother to be honest - I guess they must think we are all as dull as they are in their desire to state the bl**din obvious. Monster El Nino or not - our weather comes off the atlantic most of the time. Not a terribly exciting observation.
I 2nd that.....couldn't put it better myself
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Toasty to go with the coffee
wow, just look at that cold getting ever so closer to us from both sides and that's not even a winter chart. good find Knocker, here comes the cold!!!!
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Reading this thread, and others, you get the impression winter is over until February at the earliest. That's that then, winter death knell sounded on November 8th? I'd like to think that there is more to this than meets the eye- and of course there is otherwise winter forecasting would be a piece of cake. IMO it's good that so many people are writing the first half/ two thirds of winter off as it keeps expectations low and provides a platform for surprises to pop up.
If you read through the archives the same thing happened around this time in 2009. It's like a inevitable knee jerk reaction to the mild November weather we are having now similar to 2009
It's quite reassuring, from a coldies perspective reading all the "winters over" posts and the bickering that went on in here around this time in 2009 due to the mild November. Little did they know that in a couple of weeks time they were about to experience one of the coldest winters in living memory
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Memories....flashback to 7 years ago
https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/45571-the-disappearing-winters/
From the penultimate post
"Not much chance of a cold winter in the next 5 years on this basis either."
4 of the next 5 winters were below average.
It's quite reassuring, from a coldies perspective reading all the "winters over" posts and the bickering that went on in here around this time in 2009 due to the mild November. Little did they know that in a couple of weeks time they were about to experience one of the coldest winters in living memory
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Wow, a min of 17C according to weatheronline on Tuesday.. we don't even get lows that high every year in July or August.
when the bitter cold and snow comes its gonna be a hell of a shock to the system
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I'm personally waiting for iapennell's winter forecast, he usually does one this time of year. They have been very thorough and in my opinion quite close to the mark during the last couple of winters. I wasn't quite sure at first because he mentions in quite some detail certain dates throughout the winter months. So Iam anticipating what his methods will show for 2015/16 season
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The writing was on the wall as soon as it looked likely that this Nino would be a strong event. How many strong Nino events have seen a colder than average winter, by my recollection very few if any.
HAHAHAH!!! all this talk is hilarious October the 30th and the writing is already on the wall for this winter. At this point I would just like to reiterate what seaside 60 wrote few posts back:
"However it must be noted that 28th oct 2010 there is no forecast of the mega cold spell that was coming"
especially so that we are in a situation atmospherically and SST wise not seen before, so in new territory i.e not many analogues to compare
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Just a question to put out there. Does anyone know if we have had a snowy cold winter (not just the north uk) from a predomatley west/north west storm track with little in the way of blocking, due to a cold anomaly in the North Atlantic??Winter 1984/85 comes to mind, I'm sure I heard from somewhere that it was a cold, snowy winter predomatley from west/north west.
And sure enough that year ended with a cold Atlantic
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And if we are in a north westerly regime, with little in the way of blocking, will the cold pool help the storm track stay cold???
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Cold pool that year in september
Then in October of 2009 it warms quite a bit
But then by December it cools again
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Yes, a big difference between September and October of that year. Here's September, October and November on the IMO SST anomaly charts. One must regard every year as unique - no guarantee it will be the same this year.
Sep
Oct Nov Yes and the cold pool became even colder in December that year. So a keen eye on the cold blob during November, I would bet on it coming colder again towards the end of the year
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I vaguely remember you saying something on the lines of this could happen as we approach November and then reappear during the winter months?
If you look at the cold pool during 2009 (I think the last time we had a tripole in the Atlantic ) it was very cold right up to October where it faded, then restablished in November, then we had the very cold start to winter
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Yes and that day was followed by the coldest July night on record and not much mention of this!Didn't we have warmest July day ever this year...amidst a totally cooler than average summer...and recorded at a singular station at Heathrow Airport. Record heat was a headline that was pumped out.....
BFTP
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Surely it is better to say it was a winter of extreme contrasts in temperature rather than the equally misleading claim that it was, as a whole, very warm.
I agree Exactly what I was thinking
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I reckon November 15th 2019 for Bude/Cornwall for a proper dumping, maybe December 14th 2015 cold enough for a few flakes
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We had quite a bit of snow for a few days down here in a Cornwall, but nothing special, nothing like 2009/10. I would take a guess and say the next memorable winter for us will be 2018/19 (around solar min) I think it was knocker in a different thread that pointed out that we seem to have had cold winters coincide with solar mins recently
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Forget the wasps. It's Autumn, where are the Daddy-Longlegs ??
They are all here!!!! Got loads down here in cornwall, my daughter is freaking out as they are all attached to the patio doors trying to get in.Did you hear the Urban myth that the daddy long leg is the most poisonous insect in the Uk but they don't bite Hahahahaha!
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Has anyone got a graphic to compare North Atlantic SST this time last year (or last couple of years)compared to this years
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It's a beautiful spot for sure. I was backpacking around the south-west at the time, pitched my tent for a night on the lawns behind the library ( closeish to the canal ). I'm not sure whether I was permitted to do that...but I had to be careful with my expenses...and I was respectful. It was in June 2000, very windy and sunny, a really relaxed atmosphere.
A yes the castle grounds, nice spot. Did you know the canal completely froze in winter 2009 and then again in 2010. People were ice skating on it,Shows how cold it was, hoping for the same again this year. In 2012 the canal completely emptied after the lock gates were smashed due to one of the worst storms for 50 years. Lots of dramatic weather, but no dramatic heat I can think of in the last 15 years.
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Sorry, I was just trying to say how Mother Nature likes to even things out a little, from time to time.With respect John Badrick those posts you put up pale into insignificance to the September European heat records which I read with interest. I love Bude by the way, ranks highly in places I visited.
Hahah, it's a small world, whereabouts in Bude did you stay?, I've lived here for 12 years and love it. It does have its own unpredictable micro climate unfortunately sometimes though
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Elsewhere around the world.........
Oct 
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Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Autumn/Winter 2015/16
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
If you get any precipitation Saturday night it will be too cold for rain !!!!