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John Badrick

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Posts posted by John Badrick


  1. 3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Ridiculous output, the same old gfs garbage spewed out week after week, 2 weeks ago literally all the models showed mega cold and easterlies and snow from every angle! With in 24 hours after icon latched on to something all the models backtracked. Now 2 weeks on we have bloody bartlett scenarios showing up, what's stopping another drastic flip back in the next few days, absolutely nothing, you can go on all night about what the extended EPS are showing, or not showing, all the positive signs of the other week were undone in 24 hours. Anyway rant over, I've noticed my girlfriends horses are eating more hay and drinking much more water, they did this last year prior to the beast!! And like she said to me they no more than the models, so there you have it, strait from the horses mouth. All of those who had snow send me a pic, I'm snow starved I need cheering up. 🙄😏

     

    Love from Cornwall

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  2. 45 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Was crazy! Weirded my dog, i mean the kids dog right out!

    1000 yards from the sea nearly 25cm snow followed by freezing rain = chaos on the south coast!

    1F1A5C7A-5D2A-4B13-A004-60C6A5D5F4BE.thumb.jpeg.f76e82d4c471460e5a3f34c6da774314.jpeg059EC146-1B19-435E-B5CE-1254CB1FEA17.thumb.jpeg.a5f413c0e7c2dd279a904b5dabc1e0f2.jpeg

    dont think anything like that is on the cards at all! Northern parts look like seeing a good few hours of snow Saturday! Good luck you to ya, I’ll be getting about 2” of rain 🤨

     

    They were crazy times, these were taken in Cornwall in March this year, this was the road leading down to the beach with 6ft snow drifts 

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  3. 1 hour ago, Yarmy said:

    The first SC24 spots formed long before the last solar minimum. There is always crossover because the solar min is just defined as the lowest smoothed monthly sunspot number.  The new spot fits both the criteria for a spot belonging to the next cycle, namely:

    1. It exhibits reversed polarity.

    2. It's high latitude.

     

    does this mean that cycle 24 is showing signs that it's not going to be as low aS 23 and therefore 25 is going to be more active that people are thought to believe?


  4. 10 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Just be aware, she has no qualifications or publications related to climate, and the GWPF is a climate change denial group who have got her onboard and highlighted particular slides and hidden others, to promote their agenda.
    Not trying to start anything, it's just better to be informed of this stuff than uninformed. There are plenty of researchers out there that specialise in Earth-Sun connections, but Zharkova is not one of them, and the GWPF is not a respectable nor scientific group.

    I was just about to post this clip. what do people think? it does make you stop and think, very interesting and like you say time will tell and in the not so distant future


  5. 6 hours ago, Nick L said:

    Again, what stormy December :cc_confused:

    I forecast for Network Rail among others, and during stormy spells my workload increases significantly. It really wasn't bad.

    I took this pic at ny local beach un Bude begining of Jan as you can see there's a 12 ft sand  wall at the top of the beach its usually flat from the beach huts all the way down to the seamade from the massive waves during end of december and jan, so yes we had a stormy December/January and haven't you checked the forecast recently Hillbilly???? Feb looks to be starting off very cold indeed. So I would say Ian has been the most accurate when forecasting winter 2017/18  than any other lrf I read!

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  6. So there we have it folks,after a lot of doubters and people saying in ain't gonna happen another box for Ian can be ticked. After a stormy December and Jan ( for me wnyway) after a 12 foot sand wall was produced by storm laden seas battering the southwest coast  (I've lived here for 15 years and never witnessed this before) right on cue, as if by magic we have a bitter start to Feb 2018 and where's the cold coming from?? Yes, the East. Hats off to you Ian calling it almost to the day and from so far out!!! I'll tell you something if this was netweather's forecast certain people would be all over it!!

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  7. On 10/01/2018 at 18:45, Hocus Pocus said:

    Well around here Ian’s forecast for December was a big bust no matter how you dress it up. I’m a firm believer in that the only correct LRF is one after the event  but with one third of winter gone it’s 0-1. 

    Well that's an "imby comment" because in my BY it's been a hell of a stormy Jan and Feb so I reckon it's 1-1 and I have every confidence in the next prediction of a cold end of Jan/ beginning of Feb cold and if he gets the next round correct he'll be most accurate out of any LR forecaster as always time will tell  

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  8. 5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    I agree, it wasn't a stormy December, IMO. How quiet was that week before Christmas was? Little wind. And the start of December was pretty sedate.

    WHAT?? Well down here in Cornwall we have had a really stormy December, so stormy in places a 12ft sand wall has been left on our local beaches, lived here for 15 years and never seen this before. So I would say Ian is spot on so far and if it's a cold end of Jan and Feb then I think people should  listen

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  9. 1 minute ago, KyleHenry said:

    Let me see if I can help, the cyclones that they are referring to regarding interference are those occurring in the Indian Ocean. That body of water is included in forecasting MJO phases. 

    7B1F2141-DCE8-4BA6-B22D-E82C6854F75D.thumb.jpeg.ca917e63dc5f1a298d215e0beaafb5c8.jpeg

     

    What we have are several cyclones moving poleward, it is unclear what amount of energy is contained in these storms, therefore difficulty in calculating effect.

    Initial forecasts stemmed  from that enormous Pacific energy wave in mid October as shown below DAAF94C5-1C21-491D-B654-88E743406E2C.thumb.gif.72c4d23ba1ddeaacf6e5fd699614b52b.gif

     

    This in turn due to its magnitude created a split in PV via Tropospheric upwelling. It was a very large sigma event.

    Since then the Pacific had went dormant until now. Typhoon Tembin has now formed as forecasted.

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    It is this typhoon that will create the modelled Pacific WAA and upcoming -AO

    70C0AF20-32AF-4F06-8AD3-7BACBBE0AAFB.thumb.png.51df1a8e171e594d93bdecc1038da608.png

     

    Models have forecasted a 2nd Pacific NW Typoon which has not materialised as yet. 

    There will be two pulses of significant statospheric energy waves. 

    The issue now is what magnitude of energy will they contain. 

    At present they look to not contain enough to attain a full reversal at 60N @ 10 hPa level. 

    Hence the readjustment of GP’s and S Murr’s thoughts. 

    There will be cold incursions from this event but unlikely to hold unless energy contained inside these wave breaking phases is misjudged by models.

    Finally January is not a forgone conclusion until we reach the 20th day of the month, but the remainder of December is. 

    The Pacific could very well go into full activation mode and create a SSW. Energy contained and storm activity are the unknowns, hence the readjustment to forecast. 

    Personnally I’ll be looking at the next phase of Typhoon/cyclone activity after this one around the 10th Jan 2018. Then we will have a better understanding of what’s to come for the UK.

    What he said!😁

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