Newberryone

A possibility one can see in FL is any pressure rise from the south being prevented from rising further north owing to there still being to much strength in the northern arm of the jet stream.

Over the last 24 hours there seems to be growing support for Xmas week to bring about some kind of drying out process with heights building from an unfavourable position for those seeking anything potentially wintry. This whole theme very evident again following the overnight runs with signs of the jet stream being pushed further north courtesy of those Iberian heights.

As previous posters have just highlighted an underwhelming set of charts from the Ecm overnight run. Chilly few days coming up with occasional wintry showers before the usual dross heads back in off the Atlantic around midweek, i.e. changeable as opposed to overly unsettled with average temps. We can only hope the man himself might come up with one or two surprises by the 25th

Fl so hopefully this will not play out as presently forecast but it has been more than hinted at in recent days that some kind of settling down period was on the cards nearing the second half of Dec. Doubt many will have any issues with that considering all the recent rain but when it comes at the price of having an unwanted visitor in the form of our old friend uncle Barty I’m not so sure.

Difficult to extract too many positives for coldies from the 0z Ecm when it comes to the overall evolution for next week. After a chilly weekend there looks like being an uptick in temps again from early next week with high pressure anchored to the southwest and with only a hint of another pm incursion +240. At least precipitation levels should be way down.

To my untrained eye it would appear that the latter frames of the overnight Ecm run would suggest the opposite with regards to the Azores/Euro high. Again, not a very encouraging start to the day for us coldies, especially if days 9 and 10 verify.

Despite the more positive signals for cold weather prospects emerging over the last 24hrs in the models, would it be reasonable to suggest that our winter foe, the Azores high which seems to be showing its hand at one of the more inopportune moments as we enter Dec could in fact scupper our chances altogether?

0z Ecm not looking quite as unsettled as the previous run which should be welcome news although still very changeable. To my untrained eye it doesn’t seem to hold as much interest as yesterday’s 12z run either from a cold perspective as the jet doesn’t seem to be digging as far south in the latter stages. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see those euro heights come more into play early Dec. All in all not a great start to the day of model watching/fatigue.

Looks like some sort of settling down period could very well be on the cards as we head towards mid-month with the by now all too familiar nw/se trajectory of low pressure systems becoming less pronounced. Looking likely that heights to the southwest could once more have a role to play in this with the jet being pushed back slightly further north. As highlighted already this evening, it's not the best Ecm run of late with regards to FI

Going by the 0z Ecm run with the exception of next Wednesday and Thursday the overall picture doesn't look overly unsettled. In fact the day 10 chart would suggest a relatively settled picture with a recovery in daytime temps and less in the way of overnight frost as the high slips gradually south. Could all look totally different again of course come the 12z such is the nature of our weather.

Should the 00z Ecm 240 hrs chart verify I think we could potentially be looking at a prolonged settled spell with temps nudging above the seasonal average. Has Euro Slug written all over it.

With the likelihood of far less changeable and unsettled weather taking hold shortly after mid month I find the above post very sobering indeed as it highlights the many pitfalls that come with pressure rises from the south as we enter one of the most highly anticipated seasons of the year. While getting a break from all the rain is perfectly understandable I fail to grasp all this enthusiasm that there seems to be for the possibility of an Indian summer. All very well if it laid the foundation for something far more palatable come Dec, Jan, Feb, but how often has that been the case.

I'd say be careful what you wish for as there does now seem to be growing support for the possibility of an anticyclonic spell towards the end of Oct early Nov. That's all very well if it was for example high pressure building down from the north which would bring about something chilly at least. However this doesn't seem likely as many models are suggesting more of a subtropical high influence which as we know all too well does not bode well for anyone with a preference for seasonal weather. Doubt many on here are seeking an extension to summer 2019 as winter beckons.

As you rightly point out certainly no pot of gold judging by this run at the end of the rainbow, especially for those of a nervous disposition brought on by the fear of unseasonably mild weather. Should this latest output verify it would seem to suggest another 7/8 days of fairly unsettled weather before a dramatic turnabout to potential Indian summer like conditions. Just when I thought it might be safe to put away the lawnmower till next March.

Unsurprisingly the lack of posts in here so far today would seem to reflect the latest output from the 00z Ecm. Very different from yesterday’s 12z, not of course with regards to Lorenzo but with regards to what follows.Yesterdays output had a much stronger looking jet stream suppressing any heights to the south whereas it’s the opposite today. So as it stands next week and quite possibly beyond looking very benign indeed with little sign if any of anything remotely wintry.

Fortunately all model runs in the last 24 hours significantly downgrading any possible impact from Lorenzo but still a very fluid setup. Also noticeable in this time period has been a gradual moving away from anything distinctly unsettled or wintry post Lorenzo with Atlantic systems being veered further away to the northwest owing to a huge swathe of high pressure in the south Atlantic. October still holding the promise I feel of something more akin to late summer than autumn as time progresses.

Well just a few days ago the general pattern for early Oct did seem to suggest a shift more towards anticyclonic conditions. As is often the case the models can have a tendency to drop this only to revert back to it again in a relatively short period of time. This I think is what we may be witnessing here again with heights to the south as shown on the latter stages of the 12z Ecm introducing another benign spell of relatively mild weather.

Certainly the consistent signal for height rises to the south as we begin a new month (Oct) seem to be still very much in evidence with nothing too ominous looking according to the 00z Ecm run. Perhaps a typical north/south split with the latter favouring out best as usual.

Day 10 on the 12z Ecm would seem to suggest, albeit tentative in nature, a general settling down in conditions again courtesy of the familiar subtropical high with temps recovering to near or normal values after the weekends cool incursion.

Having seen the latest output from the 12z Ecm I think my use of the word "dramatic" in the past 24 hours or so may just have been overstating it. Things not looking quite so turbulent now with as you say low pressure systems eventually being pushed further north owing yet again to a general pressure rise to our southwest. The same swathe of high pressure that nearly 9 times out of 10 seems to take up residence each and every winter leading to another season of our discontent. Sods law!!

At long last there seems to be a growing consensus of a potentially dramatic pattern change in our weather from Saturday on. A resurgent Atlantic isn't something we've witnessed for a very long time.?️

And we all know what followed...one of the most unmemorable winters of our time.

Overnight Ecm op run still on course for a general settling down of sorts from around Thurs/Fri but it has to be said looking slightly further ahead into week 2 that the anticyclone seems to be coming under renewed pressure from a..dare I say it, resurgent Atlantic!!

As I suspected, TS Dorian having little impact on our weather this side of the Atlantic going forward. What is clearly evident is a continuation of mostly dry weather apart from the usual areas further to the northwest but even here precipitation looks negligible. Certainly very little happening it would seem well on into the Fi period for those especially who are by now seeking something generally more autumnal in nature.

Don isn't the only one who would find some cheer in this chart, however I suspect Dorian will probably have little or no effect come that time frame on those nagging heights to the southwest. The same source of high pressure that usually plagues us during winter by scuppering any cold weather potential. Far too early for any such air of despondency of course