Newberryone

The only respite from flooding for the foreseeable future, judging by some of the latest output, will be as a result of transient ridging and dare I say not much more. FI models have been offering up many different solutions as of late, many hinting at perhaps the possibility of sustained ridging but as we've seen time and time again, this eventually becomes downgraded. As is often the case with this type of weather pattern, parts of the south and southeast of the UK will be influenced more by any amplification from the south, whereas in broad terms northwestern areas seem destined for more of the same.

Wow, what a difference a day makes, which can especially be the case in meteorology. As far more knowledgeable contributors to this forum, than I could ever hope to be, have already pointed out, unsettled/disturbed weather looks like becoming far more widespread in the general outlook period. Pleased to see those Euro heights again being gradually squeezed out of the picture by an ever forceful jet stream. CLODAGH has already had some impact on electricity supplies here with reports of widespread power outages.

Ecm 00z and other suites/models painting another rather dismal outlook in the reliable time frame with regards to cold prospects with a continuation of euro heights, not to mention an AH. Still, Eire looks like copping the worst of any wet and windy weather over the forecast period.

Hopefully a trend that can be built upon over the coming days. However, some might say that usually the pub runs verification stats can be disappointingly low.

Sorry Carl, but I fear there's little if any room for optimism from a cold weather perspective from viewing the latest Ecm, especially when I read the initial reaction and hence sheer despair felt by both Nick S and Steve M. At this juncture I would be careful what I wish for with regards to getting the "so-called" fine spell first, for that unsightly looking high could quite possibly become a stationary feature anchored to our south with frost, if any, that wouldn't be worth talking about. Of course the hope would be for the orientation of the high to eventually shift to a more favourable position in terms of cold. Roll on mid-late Dec eh!!

Forgive the knee jerk reaction, but just when we thought euro heights were relaxing there grip, we're now being presented with the potential takeover of our summer friend/winter foe, AH, going into wk 2

ECM 00Z looking somewhat less amplified and more progressive again. Relatively tight isobar gradient would suggest quite a windy period coming up I would think with the pv regularly hammering those euro heights. As Legritter would have it.."Action Weather".

Gfs 12z and the southwest/northeast jet stream realignment would seem to suggest the possibility of some copious rainfall totals. Not to mention the possible rapid formation of some secondary lows. Doesn't look benign by any means.

I'm obviously missing a key ingredient not to mention something very significant here in how I'm interpreting the latest charts in relation to cold weather prospects for all I can see is a massive high pressure cell occasionally ridging slightly north from the southwest. In essence it just looks like the dreaded Azores high that's fully intent on inviting an unwanted guest such as Uncle Barty to hamper our chances of receiving anything that would be considered noteworthy in terms of cold weather.

Latest Ecm 12z output even more amplified than the 00z with those heights to the south flexing more and more muscle by keeping the worst at bay of anything that the strengthening PV throws our way, even as far out as Day 10. The Ecm may not disagree with the GEFs 11-15 day range after all.

The centre of that potential storm does seem far enough away to the northwest to have little or no impact on Southern Ireland as well as England and Wales. Besides, that huge swathe of high pressure to the southwest, which is very pronounced throughout most of next week's output will possibly deflect it even further away nearer that timeframe. All very average indeed.

Not too sure last evenings state of euphoria, albeit cautious, among model watchers will be repeated this morning courtesy of the Ecm 00z. Cold flow looks like been shunted east relatively quickly on this run. Anyone for a classic toppler!!

Judging by the latter stages of the Ecm 12z, good call from Nick Sussex earlier today re the by now relentless Euro high.

One can sense an air of despondency and with every good reason considering the latest Ecm. Basically unsettled up to Thursday and far less so afterwards as height rises from the south look set to feature yet again. Very little either tonight to suggest this locked in pattern is about to change anytime soon.

Not I would say if the latter stages of the Ecm 00z come to fruition, for those stubborn heights over the low countries on days 9 and 10 would fend of the worst of any very active frontal activity as well as keeping us trapped in a warm sector. Mother Nature..Bah humbug!!

Judging by chart number one, it would appear our euro block friend will have become a distant memory. However, going by the day 10 chart one can clearly see an Atlantic with much less oomph yet again as well as a dramatic increase in height rises to our south. Would certainly seem to suggest a relatively short lived unsettled phase before a gradual return to more of what we've become accustomed to this autumn.

Signs of any substantial ridging from the Azores, as indicated by yesterdays output, after any weakening of the Euro block by next weekend, looking far less apparent according to the Ecm 00z update. Could of course all change again, but as of now we're looking at charts indicative of a substantial change to something far more mobile, especially the further west you are, starting from next weekend, let alone mid Nov. LET THE FUN BEGIN!

Ecm 12z op pretty much singing from the same hymn sheet as those anomalies with regards to that ridging from the south west. To my untrained eye, perhaps just a transient affair as hinted by Ecm Day 10 chart though as the most likely outcome from that chart would suggest a mini pm incursion.

A battleground scenario becoming more and more pronounced in the medium term with the probability of a certain little isle in green copping some appreciable rainfall totals. Still signs however of a weakening of any further trough activity, even further west beyond Day 10 due to a strengthening of the block further east.

Yes indeed, and while admittedly the block is proving quite a resilient feature, judging by these two charts it would appear, as is often the case with these setups, that Ireland will feel the wind of change more than anyone else.Still, the GEFS calling for a relaxation of the trough post day 11, as highlighted by knocker, may suggest a return to something less palatable for those seeking action weather..long term!! PS Amazed Frosty didn't come out of hibernation owing to ECM's false dawn yesterday. WISE MAN!!

Compared to recently, much more amplification in Fi charts is gaining momentum again from two of the main players in the overnight runs. In summary.. mixed rather than unsettled/disturbed outlook.

Couldn't agree more, and while a change is most certainly on the cards, we yet again see by one of the leading European models today that this upcoming change is going to be felt to a lesser extent by some. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see this Euro block becoming more and more of a feature in future runs, hence returning anticyclonic conditions on a large scale. Patience may be required for those eagerly awaiting a full and sustained Atlantic onslaught.

Guys, be ultra careful with regards to what you wish for. We don't want this autumn to be too reminiscent of 2011, for what I remember turned out to be a cold lovers nightmare as we were constantly plagued by the wretched Azores high throughout the season resulting in temps being well above average. Christmas Day alone being a typical example.

The general consensus re a gradual breakdown towards the end of the month does seem to be gathering momentum in the model output today. However, with pressure still relatively high towards the southwest in FI, I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if this change doesn't be downgraded somewhat in the coming days.