TEITS

Had a slight covering last night with our official weather station RAF Wittering reporting 3cm. This morning what started out as light rain/sleet has turned to heavy snow. Expecting this to turn to rain around lunchtime onwards. This cold spell might not be anything special but its pretty decent in my location for the time of year.

Well after numerous model runs im still non the wiser what to expect. Im expecting to see snow falling but the real question mark is how much, if any lying snow. The models consistently suggest less accumulating snow for E Anglia compared to Midlands/Wales. This most likely is due to the influence of the N Sea. What complicates matters is my location has often been the boundary between the mild/cold. Looking very good for W Midlands/N Wales/N Midlands/S Yorks. Also worth mentioning is the strong winds as the low tomorrow tracks E tomorrow night/friday.

I am somewhat puzzled by it. Having said this I was puzzled why the Met O continued with the forecast for today of snow showers for the E when it looked likely these would remain mainly offshore for a few days now. As for the drama coming up this week then at the moment the chart below is what I would consider the most likely. However a shift S remains possible.

Im struggling to figure out the next 24hrs let alone midweek. At the moment there seems to be some disagreement with the possible snow during tonight into tomorrow morning for S England/Midlands. Some runs have the front weaken whereas others seem to re-intensify the band of precip. The next disagreement is for the far SW/S England during Tuesday night/Wed. The GFS only brings light precip into these areas whereas the UKMO/ECM indicate a decent snow event. My main issue is normally I prefer UKMO/ECM over other models. However that is not the case when it comes to precip predictions within the +48 timeframe. Im also struggling to understand the Met O warnings for snow showers across E parts for tomorrow. Any showers appear to only skim the E coast with the exception of locations such as N/E Scotland. By this time next week my location could see max temps of 17C or 0C!!

Only output im confident of is the possible snow moving S during Monday night/Tues. Apart from this the difference in the 0Z & 12Z UKMO is making me think its pointless looking beyond Tues. A special mention to our members in Scotland though is the chances of remaining cold throughout is looking more likely than I previously thought, I shall take this though.

That currently seems the most likely outcome. This would tie in with what the Met O have been suggesting. On the shorter range and im disappointed this morning. Yesterday I mentioned two snow events and now the worst possible outcome could occur of the first snow event moving S and missing the UK and the second one quickly bringing a spell of milder weather with very little snowfall on the front edge.

I wouldn't call it nonsense considering the huge differences we have seen in all model output these past 24hrs. I agree turning milder at the weekend is the favourite for the S but even then I wouldn't bet my house on it. Lets not forget our members in Scotland who are much more likely to remain cold. An unbiased post which also takes into account other members locations leads to alot less arguments on here.

A clearer pattern emerging in the model output but subject to change. Snowfall event on Wed looks to affect the S especially anywhere S of the infamous M4. The following day the risk extends further N with locations such as Midlands/Wales/E Anglia most at risk. At the same time those in the far S could see temps briefly warm up. Into the weekend the risk of snow moves even further N affecting N England/Scotland and at the same time locations such as Midlands etc will also see the brief increase in temps. As the low across the N tracks E then colder N,lys returning for everyone. At this stage the forcing from the blocking over Greenland suggests the cold spell continuing. However what could happen is the snow event on Wednesday tracks even further S missing everyone. The following event also tracks further S and doesn't reach the Midlands and affects those further S.

Disappointed with the overall trend these past 24hrs. Apart from a trend to shorten the cold spell the chances of convective snowfall has largely downgraded. We then have the low pressure which currently suggests a more N,ly track than expected. Thankfully plenty of time for changes to occur. However just a reminder to those especially in the S that this cold spell could only bring some backedged snow on monday night, followed by a short spell of snow before turning to rain and milder by Thursday!

Just tried the impossible task of looking into the detail of next week. At the moment all locations are at risk of snow with no particular location being favoured except from the obvious locations in Scotland. Seems we shall have disturbances moving S especially Tues/Wed but what intrigues me is the flow behind these. Some model runs have suggested a NE/NNE,ly which would bring heavy snow showers especially to locations such as Newcastle, N York moors and other E areas. Other model runs have suggested a NNW/NW,ly which would obviously benefit those in the W. Just to complicate things we then have the possibility of low pressure moving along the S which historically favours SW England, S Counties including S Midlands. Timing and intensity of snowfall plus cloud cover will be a factor for those seeking to maintain lying snow. Personally I would be happy with a few inches in the morning followed by this completely thawing by lunchtime.

Well the models have certainly improved since I lasted posted. Impressive and consistent modelling from the UKMO. When it comes to cold weather patterns for the UK then the UKMO always seems the most reliable. When it comes to cold weather patterns then you cannot get much better than what is projected. If I was being greedy then maybe a slight shift SE of the blocking would be even better. The very last thing I am worried about is preserving any snowfall. I could spend ages explaining all the variables that need to be taken into account. I certainly do not worry about the max temps the BBC graphics are suggesting.

Short of time but I am becoming fairly excited at a trend I am seeing in the ECM ensembles. I won't get into detail just yet as it involves the word "Potential" and this is for the period from 10th March onwards. I can fully understand members are fed up with these words. All im going to say is March 10 onwards and exceptional cold not coming from the N but NE/E!

Indeed the temperature contrasts can indeed be incredible. I think the US holds the record for the greatest temp swing in 24hrs, something like +50C!! What I have found in our weather these past few years is how boring it has become. My location has seen less snow, thunderstorms, gales. What has increased is spells of prolonged, dry weather with average temps. The hot days in summer have also increased and have recorded above 35C many times in the past 5 years. I used to think 35C was exceptional but last year changed my mind.

I am now at the point in which I don't care whether we see a cold spell and snow. However nobody knows what is going to happen for early March. The models have been dreadfully inconsistent. A good example is the chart below. We may only have a few days of winter left but this chart would bring weather more like deep mid winter.

I would be wary of taking the predicted max temps as gospel. If we do see the very cold N/NE,lys via the Greenland high then due to the time of year you will see a massive difference in temps when under a heavy shower. More than plausible to witness temps drop from 7C to 0C within mins whilst under a shower. At the moment snowfall is more than possible looking at the latest models. However deep lying snow lasting for days is unlikely whatever the temps. The amount of cloud cover is going to be very important as is the timing of any snowfall events. I see Nick F beat me to it. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98326-model-output-discussion-into-february/?do=findComment&comment=4809318

I would be wary of taking the predicted max temps as gospel. If we do see the very cold N/NE,lys via the Greenland high then due to the time of year you will see a massive difference in temps when under a heavy shower. More than plausible to witness temps drop from 7C to 0C within mins whilst under a shower. At the moment snowfall is more than possible looking at the latest models. However deep lying snow lasting for days is unlikely whatever the temps. The amount of cloud cover is going to be very important as is the timing of any snowfall events. I see Nick F beat me to it.

Personally im not expecting much from the initial colder spell i.e +168 period. If you look at the upper temps across Europe between +0 to +168 then there is very little in the way of cold pools anywhere. However on a positive note the extreme GFS is actually heading in the direction that I think is most likely. An injection of Arctic airmass is what we need, especially at this time of year. The trend towards blocking over Greenland is looking very likely IMO but whether the severity, duration of the 0Z GFS is very uncertain. So in summary anything wintry at +120 to +192 is a bonus. The chances of a decent cold spell is more likely around 2-3rd March onwards. We could well see some epic ECM +240 charts during next few days!!

Been taking a break during this benign period. The current situation reminds me of an episode of Midsummer murders. We are still at the beginning of the episode and need to follow developments as to what the final outcome is. Very little point fast forwarding to the end and making a wrong decision without the evidence. Very early signs suggest a return to cold will be from the N rather than the E. You can always easily see this via the 850hpa ensemble mean. Very often the likes of Kent will have the coldest mean when an E,ly is forecast. For a N,ly I tend to use Aberdeenshire.

The recent model output and weather in general for this winter has only reminded me why I don't post as often as I used to. I do not have as much spare time, but the main reason is I become tired of chasing cold spells that would become downgraded or disappear from the model output. This left me with the feeling of having wasted so many hours which I could of put to better use. A good example is the recent GFS farce. At one stage the GFS was suggesting an E,ly bringing cold upper temps between -12 to -15C. Now for the same time period the models & ensembles are suggesting upper temps around +5C!!! I see some posts referring to cold spells in March but to be honest once we get to the end of Feb, I switch into spring mode and desire warmth and sunshine.

Due to the slightest changes in the earlier time frames having a big difference in the final outcome i.e BFTE or High sat over the UK, I feel the chart you posted is about as reliable as asking the GFS for a monthly forecast! Those anomalies are okay for predicting the weather patterns for a continent but pretty useless for an Island like the UK . We are talking about the slightest change in positioning of the high pressure bringing ice days and heavy snow from the E to calm conditions underneath a high bringing frost at night.

I am absolutely amazed at how the GFS continues with the E,ly which becomes even more impressive as the run goes along. I thought by now the GFS would of backtracked or even less likely the other models moved towards the GFS. Still feel the other models are more likely to be correct but I am less dismissive of the GFS compared to yesterday. Only an E,ly can provide this drama!

Sadly this is a classic example of operationals leading the way over the ensembles. I feared the worst last night as whilst the 12Z ECM was an outlier it had support from the other models i.e UKMO/GEM. Hey presto come this morning whilst the ECM was still an outlier at times, you can see a massive shift in the 850hpa mean temp. The ECM mean had dropped to -5C but now stands at 0C. If the operationals continue with the same trend then I reckon tonights ECM 850 mean will rise to 3C. For newcomers a few lessons to be learn't here. When an E,ly is predicted the UKMO is often the model to follow. You should also follow only the operationals and dismiss the ensembles. I find following the models in winter can be less stressful and more accurate when looking at the basic data we have available i.e operationals. I have little interest in looking at the Stratosphere charts, anomalies, teleconnections etc. A recent example is when Mushy was still suggesting a stormy spell ahead when it was clear at the time the models had backed away from this.

Indeed and it's incredible to see such a change from a stormy period to high pressure. I have said this before but this winter has been odd for me from a forecasting perspective as the output at times has been strange. History tells me that an E,ly is more than plausible from the set up at +144 onwards but history also tells me how it can go pearshaped.

48hrs ago I would of agreed with you. The models are now backing away from the stormy period. Whilst an E,ly is an outsider I wouldn't say there is no chance. The outlook for Feb is looking much more settled but we could have mild SW,lys, High centred over the UK, or dare I say an E,ly.

I have given up making any predictions after this strange winter. I haven't look at the models very much these past few days but I have been staggered at the change in direction this morning. Seems the stormy period is being replaced by high pressure developing from the S. Looking at the ECM it wouldn't surprise me if some of the models start showing an E,ly.