TEITS

Uncertainty Synoptically the 06Z is superb with regards to the E,ly. The downside is prior to this the low for next weekend is dragging very mild S,lys into Europe. Still not worrying about upper temps just yet. Ideally I would like to see the low next week track S but also be sausage shape rather than a bowling ball.

One significant point about the ECM ensembles is the fact that the control follows the operational. When this occurs at such a short timeframe you take note. So my advice would be caution rather than "Bin it" because this is not an outlier.

I don't often say this but my word I have read some rubbish over the last few pages. Firstly the low at the end of next week still has time to alter its shape and track. However at the moment Scotland looks more favourable to see snowfall. Remember though at the moment it looks as though everyone will turn colder with a N/NE,ly into the weekend. Moving into the following week and virtually all output suggests a continuation of cold weather whether that's from a N or E,ly. A message to those who say this is normal UK winter weather in Feb. Sorry but if you look at this N Hemisphere chart from the 12Z GFS then this is more typical for April, May than Feb. I even read the dreaded Iberian High being mentioned. My reply to that cannot be posted but instead I shall just say "Are you having a laugh"! Much to look forward to for the rest of the month with plenty of further opportunities for snowfall. Just stop fretting about late next week. Are you expecting the world to end? Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99814-model-output-discussion-22nd-jan-2024-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=5028933

I don't often say this but my word I have read some rubbish over the last few pages. Firstly the low at the end of next week still has time to alter its shape and track. However at the moment Scotland looks more favourable to see snowfall. Remember though at the moment it looks as though everyone will turn colder with a N/NE,ly into the weekend. Moving into the following week and virtually all output suggests a continuation of cold weather whether that's from a N or E,ly. A message to those who say this is normal UK winter weather in Feb. Sorry but if you look at this N Hemisphere chart from the 12Z GFS then this is more typical for April, May than Feb. I even read the dreaded Iberian High being mentioned. My reply to that cannot be posted but instead I shall just say "Are you having a laugh"! Much to look forward to for the rest of the month with plenty of further opportunities for snowfall. Just stop fretting about late next week. Are you expecting the world to end?

A classic E,ly is going to develop on the 06Z.

Just putting aside the finer details in the short term. I cannot help but stare at the N Hemisphere chart on the 0z GFS at +384. A 1060mb high pressure over the North Pole with the PV being shattered to pieces with the main part of this being shunted miles away to Asia. So as it stands I remain confident that the potential cold spell starting around 7th-10th Feb could be just the start of a period of winds frequently from the N & E with below average temps and snowfall. Pretty much as the Met O have been saying for a while. This pattern change could well dominate much of the month.

Very pleased with the overall output this morning. The trend is becoming clear i.e heights increasing to our N, Heights decreasing to our S with the infamous Iberian high being replaced by low pressure as the jetstream takes a much more S,ly route. At the same time low pressure over the UK slowly moving E introducing a cold, unstable potentially snowy spell of weather. Still some uncertainty with regards to the initial push S of the cold air around the 7th. You can clearly see good agreement for Aberdeenshire with the mean at -7C. However moving S tells a different story. The Midlands has much more uncertainty for the 7th Feb. The S coast of England and better agreement the cold N,lys will not reach this far S for this period. However the ensembles do show the colder air arriving on the 11th as the low clears E. I wouldn't at all be surprised if we see a shift S from the models for the 6/7/8th Feb. Dare I say maybe even some classic late 1970s charts appearing. Beyond and to me a continued risk of cold, snow, possibly even colder when the beast is unleashed.

@TillyS You seem to have gone AWOL for the 06Z run. Not surprising really. The reality is the difference between 0Z, 06Z GFS & yesterdays ECM 12Z & 0Z run points to one thing. It doesn't matter whether you have a preference for mild or cold or an obsession for high pressure across Iberia. The fact is the models have been very inconsistent lately as recent ECM runs have highlighted. Due to this I cannot see any strong signal from the models either way. My instincts however are to look E like the 06Z. I shall just add that we need to practice what we preach. I may at times only post a cold chart but then again you seem to do the same with any milder charts.

Yet again GEFS control follows the operational. Mean almost touching -5C towards the latter part of the run. Maybe its me but i'm puzzled by some of the posts. I am seeing the greatest opportunity for a significant cold, snowy spell of weather so far this winter. I feel our luck is about to change and my instincts are telling me the beast is going to be let out of it's siberian cage during the 2nd week of Feb. If you cannot see what is so special about the ECM then I give up!

So despite the 06Z being much colder than the ensemble mean. The 12Z follows the 06Z with regards to temps. Not surprising and I expect the 12Z GEFS mean will lower from 0C for the 6th Feb @CoventryWeather UKMO would produce a decent N,ly at +192. How far S the cold air would push is difficult to say.

Amazed nobody has mentioned how closely the GEFS control follows the GFS. When this happens you take note in my experience. I expect the GEFS mean on the 6th Feb to start dropping from 0C towards -5C for my location. I feel some excitement is going to return back to this thread very soon.

Considering the vast changes we are seeing in the operational's at a relatively early timeframe. Do you not think it's rather silly to be writing off the rest of the winter. Very disappointed in some of the posts who frankly should know better.

I haven't posted recently as to be honest the inconsistent output has made commenting pointless to me. The 06Z is such a great example as the difference to the 0Z is frankly laughable. All I can say is the chances of turning colder as we enter the 2nd week of Feb is looking likely with a NW, N,ly flow. The big question mark is how cold or prolonged any spell would be. The GFS at +276 reminds me of a classic 1980s E,ly archive chart. Cannot remember when but shall go and have a look through the archives.

Disappointed with the model output. Although im struggling to find much consistency. I am also struggling to find anything to suggest a cold spell. At the moment the best I can see is maybe colder W/NW,lys into the 2nd week of Feb. This would be great if I lived at a location such as Cumbria but not for a location such as mine that is as flat as a pancake in E Anglia. I'm also disappointed with the Met O forecast. The suggested cold N or E winds that was forecasted for early Feb has since been put back to mid Feb and now late Feb, As someone once suggested to me, can you claim success for a forecast that keeps being delayed? Times like this I do envy those who live in locations such as Cumbria. I think it was OON who recently posted someone wonderful landscape pictures of the snow on the hills in Cumbria.

Very good post and very difficult to argue against. Only positive is the models will get better because they cannot get any worse from a coldies perspective.

Thankfully the winds were slightly less than forecasts/models predicted with gusts around 58mph. Still i'm not going to moan about the Met O warnings. Shall leave that until we see warnings for 2cm of snowfall or when schools close whenever snow is forecasted and yet to fall!!

Must admit my location doesn't generally suffer from strong winds. However to me it looks as though 70-75mph gusts are possible and i'm surprised the Met O only have a yellow warning of 55mph gusts. Im worried as a couple of years ago we had our roof replaced by a bunch of kids being employed by some cowboys. Never feels secure and I can often hear a rattling above my head in the bedroom when it's just breezy!

Rather foolish , considering Feb is still 10 days away, to be basing your predictions for Feb solely on this mornings output. I haven't checked the models for 48hrs but did note the E,ly has gone AWOL. As for an "epic forecasting bust". Regardless of what happens for the rest of this winter I admire and respect anyone who makes a forecast using whatever methods they use. The UK is probably one of the most difficult locations in the world for weather forecasting. That applies to short,medium,long range forecasts. I have tried to take a more practical, balanced approach this winter. I read and take note of the excellent contributions from the likes of Tamara, Catacol, Metcast, Eagleeye and then combine to see if the operational output agrees with some of the teleconnection signals. I then finally combine these two with the ensembles etc, and also the Met O long range forecast. Sometimes I ignore the above and just predict an E,ly which has recently disappeared as quickly as the support for the conservative party.

Brilliant post as you have summed this up perfectly. On a different topic I note some are being a little OTT with regards to next weeks mild weather. Just using the GFS only one day does my location reach a max temp of 13C. The other days for next week is around 8/9C. So just above average and nothing exceptional. What is noticeable next week is just how wet and windy it shall be although thankfully the low pressure on Wednesday should be the last one for a considerable time. In summary after the wild weather this sunday and early next week the next destination is fairly clear to me. However the route it takes and how long the journey will be is up for debate. If members thought the recent chase was stressful they ain't seen anything yet.

Why because of just one set of runs and not forgetting the period of interest being 13 days away! I am optimistic we shall be chasing the next cold spell very soon for the period between end of Jan/Early Feb. The ensemble below is an indicator that we could soon be seeing the classic battle between the Siberian High and the Polar Vortex over Greenland. However when it comes to potential E,lys I rarely use the ensembles. For now I shall just keep an eye on the GFS operationals especially towards the latter part of the run. I shall just finally add that I am not saying an E,ly will occur. Like I say you cannot assume anything for a tiny island such as ours for a period that is 13 days away.

Some will think im barking mad but i'm not ruling out a change in the output especially for the end of the week.

When I look at what the models are suggesting from a synoptic point of view compared to what we will see on the ground is disappointing. I feel as though I have been given a gift card as a present only to find sod all on the balance! Still I do not like the overall tone on here though. Little point in turning your frustrations onto other members. If someone wishes to spend all day viewing the models then that is up to them. Like wise if someone seeks mild or cold weather, thunderstorms or gales then again that is their choice. Same applies to any forecasting technique whether that's teleconnections or using seaweed. The snow storm which is now modelled south was always likely to happen. Besides locations such as Manchester, Leeds, Doncaster, Humberside could well see substantial snow during Tues/Wed. So let's be respectful to other members and realise they will be as disappointed as you.

Cannot be ruled out. However some models have now trended this low so far S that even N France misses out with more central parts of France being at risk. Such a shame as I would of loved to see some of those snowfall predictions come off for my location. This isn't surprising though as I expected the shift S. Beyond next week and the outlook is as clear as mud. I'm sticking with the remaining cold outlook but turning more unsettled. A cold, zonal spell with the jetstream tracking much further S than normal. Still cannot rule out an E,ly though as we could see surface highs deflect low pressure systems SE. I sincerely hope some of the model runs are wrong ,as some suggest an extremely windy, wet spell which would cause massive flooding issues again.

If you don't mind me saying your post is inaccurate. Firstly a potent N,ly has never been really suggested with the average of around -8C upper temps for my location. What has changed these past 72hrs is the ensembles fully agree with how far S the initial N,ly will be. If you recall for my location there was still some scatter as to how far S the N,ly will be on 15th/16th Jan. I also highlighted how the scatter increased somewhat for the S coast of England. As you can see far less scatter now for E Sussex. As for the low pressure across S of the UK for next week. This still continues to bring a risk of significant snow but unsurprisingly it appears this may trend further S into France. I however cannot be bothered to focus much on precipitation at the moment as I know its a waste of time and effort. I wish I had a pound for every time "it looks dry" has been posted on this forum over the years! The reality is a cold spell in the UK often means a drier spell of weather and more settled. Unsettled and still very cold is not something you can expect for our climate. You would be better off living in Tromso (Norway) for such a weather pattern. During the 1963 winter I believe there were many prolonged dry spells inbetween the snowfalls.

Going to disagree with some of the posts today especially with regards to the initial N,ly and how far S this spreads. If you remember for my location there was a lot of scatter with regards to the N,ly around 16th Jan. Now we have a solid cluster around -8C which for my location isn't bad for a N,ly. Also take note how even 11 days away the mean is still at -4C. ECM ensembles for my location is also at -4C upto 20th Jan. This might not sound very cold but could be cold enough for snowfall, should fronts move in from the S. Next take a look at ECM for N France. The mean suggests the operational was too far N. So in summary. We begin with a N,ly, followed by a potential snow event next week (No idea where). Possibly turning less cold for the S before turning back colder again from the N into the following weekend with further snowfall opportunities. Into the following week i.e 21st Jan onwards the potential for an E,ly as I mentioned a few days ago. If this doesn't occur then still likely to remain on the cold side with further snowfall especially for the N as the pattern of blocking and a jet stream further S than normal looks the most likely outcome. Just remember even during the classic winters of 63 (even though I wasn't born) at times the blocking did relent and briefly the upper temps increased but surface temps remained cold. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5004681