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  1. Just recieved phone call from my doctor confirming I have tested positive for whooping cough. A word of advice make sure your children are vaccinated and if your partner is pregnant. This virus is so nasty as my cough started at the end of July and im still experiencing severe coughing fits. Seems whooping cough is making a comeback!

    1. Show previous comments  2 more
    2. CreweCold


      The vaccine only really lasts for a few years. I'm guessing this is all due to parents not wanting to vaccinate their babies/children for whatever reason. Kids are the biggest transmitters of stuff like this...It's why I like to give coughing/spluttering children a wide berth when out and about in shops etc. If anyone coughs/sneezes in my vicinity without covering their nose/mouth I'm outta there pronto!

    3. Nick L

      Nick L

      Child vaccinations for these kinds of things should be compulsory.

    4. Spikecollie


      Sounds ghastly. I got chickenpox as an adult years ago. It was awful, I was off work for nearly 3 weeks and got pneumonitis (the vesicles are in your lungs too) and had the wretched things in the most unpleasant and unlikely of places (nose, ears and below too). I still have scars on my visible skin. Yes, all kids should be compulsorily vaccinated...

      Get well soon.

  2. A stunning storm here at the moment with frequent lightning and monsoon type rainfall!
  3. Already just had a heavy shower. The area of activity you see on the radar is pretty much the area the Euro4 has consistently predicted for the past couple of days. So what is likely to happen today is this area will intensify during today whilst drifting north into Lincs/Humber before finally clearing into the N Sea. I do not see anything for the far S or SE, not even a light shower.
  4. The Storm to my S is just incredible especially across Ramsey, Chatteris in the fens. I imagine Suffolk, Norfolk is next to be hit this evening from these monster storms.
  5. Amazing skies here at the moment. Very defined anvils plus mammatus clouds. Can now here thunder in the distance.
  6. Certainly more interest since I lasted posted. A few points from me though. 1. Considering its the UKMO/GEM/ECM Vs GFS then it's a no brainer to side with the Euros. 2. im rather dubious of the 0Z ECM and the difference between this and the UKMO with regards to the LP in the Atlantic. At this stage I would side with the UKMO. 3. Still uncertain how far S the cold air will dig if you compare the ECM Det with the ensemble mean. 4. How long will this colder spell last. My answer at this stage to the above is a colder spell lasting around 4 days with more W parts prone to snowfall rather than E parts due to the N flow having a W,ly element to it. This could change and probably will in future outputs.
  7. The only positive for me is a certain forecaster who is always predicting the next ice age, has produced the most inaccurate forecast in the history of Meteorology! Despite only a few frosts and no days of snowfalling, I am sure this person will take credit because a snowflake fell on top of Ben Nevis.
  8. Whilst I agree a colder W/NW,ly is possible towards the end of the month, I do have one major concern for most of us with the exception of Scotland. The GEFS ensembles suggest pressure will remain relatively high to our S. So my forecast for the end of Jan/early Feb would be that the current mild spell will be replaced by temps returning to nearer average in the S and slightly below for Scotland where snowfall is possible on higher ground. Remaining unsetttled for all areas though.
  9. Im thinking of going back into hibernation. One of the reasons I was late posting this year is because of the dreadful synoptics we have been experiencing. I know some are still hopeful for Feb with regards to the strat and teleconnections. However as I said many days ago these promising signs mean sod all if this isn't apparent in the model output. Also these predictions always seem to be delayed!! Sometimes you just look at the weather pattens and think to yourself this isn't going to be our year and this seems to be the case this winter. I could be wrong and Feb does finally see winter will arrive, However I will not be getting excited whatever I read in the strat thread or any forecast based on teleconnections. Stick with the model output is my advice because a supercomputer will always have an advantage to the human brain!
  10. I beg to differ. The models have been consistent with a positive NAO i.e low heights to our NW with high pressure to our S for many days now. The models have also been consistent with high pressure to our NE. The problem is even if we do see low pressure going underneath the high to our NE, the low heights towards Greenland are likely to prevent the block to our NE to extend W. I seem to recall some forecasts based on teleconnections saying the end of Jan/early Feb is when winter will bite. Well at the moment I see no evidence of this in the output. Infact the current output is like something from a horror film. Maybe the forecasted cold spell will be put back to mid Feb.
  11. Regardless of how the 06Z continues to develop it goes to show how the models can make me look a fool. A few days ago I would never of thought the GFS would show the synoptics at +192 on the 06Z run. I am thinking I should shut up and stop making predictions and comment on what the models ARE showing!
  12. Certainly hints that any atlantic influence will be shortlived. However lets not get carried away because at this stage a cold SE,ly is more likely than a cold snowy E,ly although obviously this is subject to change. Just for fun a GEFS ensemble member brings 850s as low as -17C!
  13. I Personally cannot see these so called building blocks. What I do see in the ensemble means by GFS/ECM is relatively high pressure to our S and low heights to our NW. The GEFS in F.I do suggest high pressure over Russia extending W into Scandi but the problem at the moment is the suggestion low heights will remain to our NW. The net result of this is possibly a cold SE,ly but not a cold snowy E,ly.
  14. Unless we see further energy heading SE then the high will inevitably topple and bring milder SW,lys.
  15. Nightmare to work out the snowfall potential on Monday. In these situations it's impossible to say who will be in the sweet zone. Now what I mean by this is depending on your location, you want the front to travel far enough NE to reach you but you do not want this to travel too far NE otherwise you're into the milder air. A stalling front in this situation can bring large amounts of snow but the sweet zone can be relatively narrow. My early punt is parts of N/E Wales, W Midlands. I don't think it will reach the E Midlands/N England and will fall as rain to the SW and S counties.