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  1. The Storm to my S is just incredible especially across Ramsey, Chatteris in the fens. I imagine Suffolk, Norfolk is next to be hit this evening from these monster storms.
  2. Amazing skies here at the moment. Very defined anvils plus mammatus clouds. Can now here thunder in the distance.
  3. Certainly more interest since I lasted posted. A few points from me though. 1. Considering its the UKMO/GEM/ECM Vs GFS then it's a no brainer to side with the Euros. 2. im rather dubious of the 0Z ECM and the difference between this and the UKMO with regards to the LP in the Atlantic. At this stage I would side with the UKMO. 3. Still uncertain how far S the cold air will dig if you compare the ECM Det with the ensemble mean. 4. How long will this colder spell last. My answer at this stage to the above is a colder spell lasting around 4 days with more W parts prone to snowfall rather than E parts due to the N flow having a W,ly element to it. This could change and probably will in future outputs.
  4. The only positive for me is a certain forecaster who is always predicting the next ice age, has produced the most inaccurate forecast in the history of Meteorology! Despite only a few frosts and no days of snowfalling, I am sure this person will take credit because a snowflake fell on top of Ben Nevis.
  5. Whilst I agree a colder W/NW,ly is possible towards the end of the month, I do have one major concern for most of us with the exception of Scotland. The GEFS ensembles suggest pressure will remain relatively high to our S. So my forecast for the end of Jan/early Feb would be that the current mild spell will be replaced by temps returning to nearer average in the S and slightly below for Scotland where snowfall is possible on higher ground. Remaining unsetttled for all areas though.
  6. Im thinking of going back into hibernation. One of the reasons I was late posting this year is because of the dreadful synoptics we have been experiencing. I know some are still hopeful for Feb with regards to the strat and teleconnections. However as I said many days ago these promising signs mean sod all if this isn't apparent in the model output. Also these predictions always seem to be delayed!! Sometimes you just look at the weather pattens and think to yourself this isn't going to be our year and this seems to be the case this winter. I could be wrong and Feb does finally see winter will arrive, However I will not be getting excited whatever I read in the strat thread or any forecast based on teleconnections. Stick with the model output is my advice because a supercomputer will always have an advantage to the human brain!
  7. I beg to differ. The models have been consistent with a positive NAO i.e low heights to our NW with high pressure to our S for many days now. The models have also been consistent with high pressure to our NE. The problem is even if we do see low pressure going underneath the high to our NE, the low heights towards Greenland are likely to prevent the block to our NE to extend W. I seem to recall some forecasts based on teleconnections saying the end of Jan/early Feb is when winter will bite. Well at the moment I see no evidence of this in the output. Infact the current output is like something from a horror film. Maybe the forecasted cold spell will be put back to mid Feb.
  8. Regardless of how the 06Z continues to develop it goes to show how the models can make me look a fool. A few days ago I would never of thought the GFS would show the synoptics at +192 on the 06Z run. I am thinking I should shut up and stop making predictions and comment on what the models ARE showing!
  9. Certainly hints that any atlantic influence will be shortlived. However lets not get carried away because at this stage a cold SE,ly is more likely than a cold snowy E,ly although obviously this is subject to change. Just for fun a GEFS ensemble member brings 850s as low as -17C!
  10. I Personally cannot see these so called building blocks. What I do see in the ensemble means by GFS/ECM is relatively high pressure to our S and low heights to our NW. The GEFS in F.I do suggest high pressure over Russia extending W into Scandi but the problem at the moment is the suggestion low heights will remain to our NW. The net result of this is possibly a cold SE,ly but not a cold snowy E,ly.
  11. Unless we see further energy heading SE then the high will inevitably topple and bring milder SW,lys.
  12. Nightmare to work out the snowfall potential on Monday. In these situations it's impossible to say who will be in the sweet zone. Now what I mean by this is depending on your location, you want the front to travel far enough NE to reach you but you do not want this to travel too far NE otherwise you're into the milder air. A stalling front in this situation can bring large amounts of snow but the sweet zone can be relatively narrow. My early punt is parts of N/E Wales, W Midlands. I don't think it will reach the E Midlands/N England and will fall as rain to the SW and S counties.
  13. Looking at the 18Z GEFS mean at +144 and to be honest it is dreadful. I would be amazed if the UKMO is proved correct and a return to milder weather is looking very likely in my opinion. Still im not too disappointed because I didn't expect very much from this current cold spell and said many days ago we are a very long way away from a decent cold spell synoptically speaking. My prediction is the Met O updates will be surprisingly wintry tomorrow morning. However as the UKMO trends towards the ECM/GFS and then so do the fax charts then Sunday morning Met O update will be very different to tomorrows..
  14. What concerns me is the models are consistently predicting a very positive NAO for the last week of Jan. Infact I would argue we are seeing more consistency in the model output in F.I than in the reliable timeframe. Like I said a few days ago, forecasts based on teleconnections mean sod all if this is not shown in the model output. I do not intend any disrespect to Tamara or GP but I do not have much faith in these forecasts.
  15. I was going to post this morning about my concern with regards to the consistent awful medium range trend of high pressure to our S and a very mild W/SW,ly. I then however had a look at the GEFS ensembles and noticed the incredible scatter very early in the run. Based on all output I would say we have a 60% chance of it turning milder, 30% remaining cold and settled, 10% epic cold spell similiar to 78/79. Shall update these percentages later.