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TEITS last won the day on January 5

TEITS had the most liked content!

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  1. I shall say it now the UKMO is probably the best run I have seen since I joined this forum many years ago. Everything is perfect, the position and orientation of the high, strength of the E,ly flow, sheer depth of the cold pool to our E. On a different note I really hope our local councils take some action in helping the homeless next week.
  2. You are right all outcomes should be discussed in this thread. One problem though none of the models are showing a failed E,ly!
  3. Sorry but posts like this are getting on my nerves. I said about 3 or 4 days ago that Mon-Tues was the likely days the cold air will arrive. Unless my eyes are decieving me then the 06Z is showing between -11 to -13C on Monday for the E. We are bound to see slight variations i.e some runs being 1 to 3 C colder, cold air arriving 24hrs earlier or later. However I have hardly seen any runs that bring the cold air in on Saturday? I cannot believe some of the negative comments in this thread recently. Synoptically this in my opinion is a once in 10 yr event. Maybe even 1 in 20yr event if you look at how rare E,lys have been since the 1980s.
  4. My tip for newcomers to this forum who want to know if its going to snow is this. Step 1 ignore most precipitation charts on the ECM/UKMO/GFS. Step 2 When the period of interest is within 48hrs then use the model below. This has always been my preferred choice. http://expert-images.images-weatheronline.com/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2018/02/21/basis00/ukuk/pslv/18022300_2100.gif Step 3 When the day of interest arrives, which at the moment appears to be Monday, then head over to the regional threads where everyone will be following the radar/Sat. Personally I am going to be purchasing the NW radar but I shall be waiting till Sunday as I don't want to jinx the cold spell!
  5. Personally I feel the above is a very fair assessment of the current situation based on the output I have seen.
  6. If everything goes according to plan then the distribution of snow showers is likely to alter into next week. During this Saturday the continental air arrives via a ESE,ly which then becomes a direct E,ly on Sunday/Monday. During the middle of next week the high will move towards Greenland and when this happens the flow is more likely to veer towards a ENE,ly or even NE,ly. I cannot stress enough to members how the slightest change can alter the distribution of snow showers and it is this detail you want to look at nearer the time. I recall in Dec 2010 how Lincoln recieved incredible amounts of snow and yet I recieved nothing. This was due to a slight change in the model output which mean't less of a N,ly element to the E,ly and more a direct E,ly. Your local knowledge of your weather will help in these situations. For example I know I require the slightest N,ly element to an E,ly for my location to benefit.
  7. A significant shift W from the UKMO this morning if you compare to yesterdays 0Z. If you take all of todays output including the ensemble means then the UKMO is about right in my opinion especially with regards to the positioning and orientation of the high. Another thing worth mentioning is snowfall. Now whilst this is silly this far out I feel something is worth mentioning. The focus including the Met O has been towards the S&E. However based on the output and my own experience I feel locations from Lincs all the way upto Northumberland could be hit hard, probably even more so than the SE. This snowfall is likely to penetrate well inland. Those who did well in early Dec 2010 could yet again see heavy snowfall.
  8. Maybe you should read some of my posts then. I made reference to the SSW only this morning.
  9. Very surprised at some of the comments this morning. Let me begin with the ECM and say this model has always been less progressive in bringing the very cold upper temps from the E. If we look at the +168 to +192 the cold arrives between Monday night and Tues which is exactly what I said yesterday morning about the ECM. Now lets move onto the placement of the high. I can understand some of the comments this morning from our members in the N of the UK. However a subtle shift N or S of the high can make a signficant difference with regards to temps/snowfall. It is worth mentioning though that historically in these situations the further SE you are the more likely is is to be colder/snowier. If we look back to previous classic E,lys, locations such as NW Scotland have remained less cold with a abundance of sunshine. Lets just forget about snowfall for a minute and the fact its nearly March and just enjoy the wonderful synoptics being shown. This in my opinion is a once every 10 year event and anyone who has anything negative to say about this mornings output needs to appreciate this. The SSW has it seems made the planet spin in the opposite direction and although we know that isn't the truth, the way the weather systems are behaving you would think that is the case. Just look at these ECM ensemble means!
  10. A futile debate but a ESE,ly is never really a snow maker for the SE due to the simple fact of a shorter sea fetch. This is why it tends to produce from Lincs northwards. Anyway like I said in my previous post in these situations the flow tends to alter between ESE,ly & ENE,ly and so the distribution of the snow showers also changes.
  11. The 06Z would favour the NE of the UK rather than the SE. Whilst it's still too early to say but if the trend continues then the next focus for members to look at is the exact flow of the E,ly. A ESE, E, ENE, NE,ly are all a factor on the distribution of the snow showers. For example a ESE,ly tends to favour locations from Lincs northwards and places such as the SE can miss out and remain dry. Having said all of this if the trend continues the flow of the E,ly is more likely to change to all the directions I mention above resulting in most seeing some action!
  12. Im quoting myself because my word so much has changed since this post above. Thankfully since then we have finally got most of the output to sing from the same hymn sheet with the UKMO/ECM looking stunning this morning. I have noted this morning a few moans about how this is still 10 days away but this isn't strictly true. What you have to remember is if you get the blocking in the ideal location and orientation then the bitter airmass has to come this way even if it arrives a few days later. Besides this anyone who finds anything negative about the output today really needs a new hobby because this is about as good as it gets. Going back to my quoted post above and its funny how fickle the ensembles can be. Note I mention the mean increasing from -7c to 2C and now today the mean is back to -7C. Based on all the output the current timing of when the bitter E,ly could arrive with the potential of snow showers arriving is somewhere around late Mon-Tues.
  13. Well im glad I have remained sat on the fence these past few days. Following on from my post yesterday about the ensembles and you have to laugh at the 0Z GEFS ensembles and what a waste of time they have been. Remember the mean was once sat at -7C is now at +2C. Remember all those wonderful GEFS mean charts showing the blocking over Scandi/Greenland? The point is continue following the operationals during this spell of model mayhem! The odds of the E,ly like the ECM shows remains at 35% for me, like yesterday. If I had to make a forecast I would say high pressure sat over the UK with the chance of this high extending further N&W towards end of the month.
  14. I know some will disagree but the difference in the 0Z & 12Z ECM only highlights what a waste of time viewing ensembles is going to be at the moment. If the higher resolution operationals are prone to such swings then it hardly gives you confidence viewing the ensembles. Rememer ensembles have the starting data tweaked, plus lower resolution. Some will argue the opposite approach but for me my eyes are only focussed on the ECM, UKMO operationals.
  15. Have to laugh I was just typing and saying how the chance of an E,ly has now dropped to 25% and along comes the ECM.