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Everything posted by Barry12

  1. Was woken up told it's snowing, I expected a dusting, there's loads !
  2. heavy snow here, been snowing for a good couple of hours now.
  3. Agree, when the GFS isn't showing what people want it's suddenly 'useless' and 'over progressive.' I can remember countless times the GFS has called it correctly, and the ECM has followed later, or at least trended towards the GFS solution. I don't think we should discount any model at this stage. In the UK, the Atlantic will always have a higher chance of winning the battle, not saying it will however.
  4. Moderate snow shower here. I've got a feeling we're gonna get a decent amount of snow on Sunday.
  5. In my opinion, people should stop giving time periods for pattern changes, because it usually leads to disappointment. Due to the background signals being much better than last year, I believe that at some point during the next 3 months we will get a pattern change to a cold blocked pattern, but to give a specific time on when that will happen is impossible. It's not a dig at anyone, but simply a fact that no one, no matter how knowledgeable, can forecast more than 10 days out with any accuracy. Including the Met Office. If people start mentioning the end of December now for a pattern change I think I might scream. This winter WILL most likely be better than last winter but nothing is certain past day 10.
  6. Despite all the background signals and forecasts from the 'experts', to a cold blocked pattern change, it actually looks more likely it will be mild based on current model output.
  7. Starting to look like the wheels are now coming of the Northern blocking wagon, the point of interest is being pushed back yet again which is unfortunate. I'm starting to think we will have a typical December fare.
  8. Great informative post by Tamara, I really hope we do see a change by mid month. As a pessimist though, I can't help but notice the potential pattern change seems to remain in weeks 2 and 3 on the models. Hopefully the blocked pattern can change into a cold and snowy pattern by mid month.
  9. What are the verification stats for week 3 CFS charts?
  10. The long range models are about as useful as a chocolate teapot. The EC32, MOGREPS, GLOSEA5, have been showing a consistent theme for blocking and cold temperatures for months, yet were still waiting for anything other than a chilly temporary NWerly. Anything interesting is now pushed back to mid December. As Summer sun 'If I had a pound for everytime a day 10 chart showed potential'. I remain pessimistic until anything interesting moves into at least day 7, and has cross model support.
  11. Now it's starting to move into the middle of December... When looking at the models past day 7, do not take it seriously, even if it's got support from it's ensembles. 99/100 times it leads to disappointment, and even if does become cold it's usually watered down. December 2010 is the only time the amazing sypnoptics actually verified in the last 25+ years. The 'experts' on here keep saying 'patience', and then push the forecasted time for the cold back! After last winter, I'm starting to run out of patience! Still early days yet though.
  12. First it was the middle of November, then the end of November, and now the start of December for the pattern change to significant blocking! Let's hope this isn't a theme of this winter as I have dejavu of this thing happening from the last couple of winters. A couple of days ago Ian posted about a strong signal towards a more blocked pattern, with GLOSEA and MOGREPS both supporting that. But less than 24 hours later, the signals towards a more blocked pattern had already waned, which goes to show just how hard it is forecasting the weather anymore than a week in the UK. I'm currently not getting excited just yet as all the blocking charts seem to be remaining in the 10-15 day timeframe. The GFS 12z run everyone was getting excited about has already changed on the 18z. The Northern Hemisphere background does still look much better than last year, but all the good background signals in the world don't gurantee cold/snowy weather for the UK. Until these blocked/cold charts get to at least day 7, theirs no point getting too excited in my opinion.
  13. Personally I think people are getting a bit too excited. Ian's posts from last night where talking about the start of December, which is still 2 weeks away, as everyone knows a lot can change in that period of time. I've seen some very great looking charts from the GFS, but they are all in FI! and it never looks particularly cold for the UK. So, as always until these great looking charts get into the reliable timeframe I think people should temper their excitement. The background signals do look great, but that doesn't gurantee cold.
  14. Met Office Warnings Issued For: West Yorkshire Yellow early warning of snow From: 1200 on Tue 8 November To: 0900 on Wed 9 November Updated 4 hours ago Rain will turn to snow in places later on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. This could bring accumulations of 4 to 8 cm across some hilly areas of northern England and Scotland, largely above 200-300 m, with as much as 15 cm possible above 300-400 m. Overnight Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, as snow peters out over Scotland, there is the potential for snow to settle to low levels over parts of Yorkshire and down into the northeast Midlands, though with a good deal of uncertainty about this.Please be aware of the risk of difficult driving conditions in some areas.
  15. ECM 00z, GFS 12z, and many of the GEFS perturbations are showing another attempt at ridging towards Greenland around day 10. GLOSEA5 is also showing support for blocking mid/late Nov so there is certainly a bit of support for the ECM. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a growing trend.
  16. Barry12

    Star Wars 7

    IT'S DISNEY STAR WARS DOESN'T COUNT seriously though I thought it was alright
  17. Certainly a cold next 10 days if ECM is correct... No mild Atlantic weather to be seen...
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