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ciel

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Posts posted by ciel

    Novel Coronavirus – China

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

    The orig discussion was between Snipper and Swebby, about possibility of coronav MAYBE being more prevalent in Chinese. Read their posts.

    So, i quoted the ref to sickle cell, which is more prevalent in those of African or Afro-Caribb heritage. So, maybe, diseases can, and do, discriminate. There endeth the discussion.

    I didn't realise the NW threads were  'private' discussions.

    And yes, this particular side-issue should end in the ignorance.

    • Like 2

    Novel Coronavirus – China

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

    Yep. So it is more prevalent in those of Afro-Carib or African heritage. So, some diseases do actually 'discriminate', which takes us back to a discussion from earlier in the thread. Ta.

    But your argument is that a particular susceptibility to coronavirus respiratory infection may have some sort of genetic link to ethnicity and to date there is no evidence for that. It would be a very bad genetic adaptation for humans/Asians in regard to survival if that were the case.

     

    Novel Coronavirus – China

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    So, how come sickle cell is highly prevalent amongst our own population of those with afro- carib or african heritage, BUT.....

    Were born in UK and hardly ever, if ever, visit malaria risk countries?

    In simple terms because the adaptive genetic mutation is passed on through generations.

    • Like 3

    Scotland /Alba weather discussion 2020

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by ciel

    Travelled by train from Montrose to Glasgow today. 

    Between Dundee, Perth and Stirling, the water levels were about as high as I have ever noticed. Purely observational, of course, but the outer Tay, at almost high tide, appeared to have been contained by the sump/pumping work etc east of Perth, but westwards the Earn has flooded acres of agricultural land. It was odd to see a Gooseander swimming in a field. Fortunately, no homes which I passed by were affected, although the Allan Water looked rough passing through Bridge of Allan.

    Anyway, Glasgow was mild and drizzly, with the usual  grumpy taxi drivers.

    Edit: Of course, I didn't mention there was a sprinkling of snow on the Ochils.:oldmellow:

    • Like 8

    Scotland /Alba weather discussion 2020

    in Regional

    Posted

    27 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

    Sleet here this morning. Very blustery showers, nasty stuff.

    Trying to find info on rail disruption but Scotrail website just spouts garbage. Someone said the line's flooded near Kingussie but I can find no official source of info.  Any offers of useful info?

    I've been looking around too as I need to get to Aberdeen tomorrow.

    Their website does not appear to have been updated since yesterday, but it states that replacement buses are running between Glasgow Q ST and Aberdeen/Inverness.

    https://www.nationalrail.co.uk/service_disruptions/242775.aspx

     

    • Like 2

    Novel Coronavirus – China

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    41 minutes ago, swebby said:

    Hi GW, may i offer some friendly advice please?

    If this is the kind of site/article that are forming your opinions of covid-2019, then i urge you to please, please, take a step back and to stop visiting sites like this for "information".  I think you will probably feel a lot less agitated and as a result better able to digest the news on Covid-2019.  If you want to follow the progression of covid-2019 then maybe just stick with WHO/CDC updates? I get that you may be very worried, and might suspect that WHO are painting an incomplete picture, but i assure you that their updates are a lot nearer to reality than the above article by Mr Durden.

    The article is bad, and i mean really really bad!  I would call the author "Tyler Durden" a bloody idiot, or a crap journalist, but based on the way the article is constructed that is sadly not the case. No! Instead i have to view the author as being a very dangerous individual (i'm being polite here), that has carefully and cleverly constructed the article to pray on the worst fears of an uninformed general public. This is presumably to drive web traffic and advertising revenue? If anyone reading this article was thinking "but but they have a point" "i believe them" then please don't feel foolish, this stuff is skillfully written to lure the reader. The writing is sensationalist and speculative, specifically crafted to "suggest" things without actually making the claim in black and white* thus adding to the mystery/conspiracy and that you the reader are "privileged and in the know".  Durden manages to imply the following: the virus is man made, it is a bio weapon, the mainstream media "fabricate reality", china are involved in a cover up, there are "secret" Wuhan laboratories and even invokes the holy grail of the "C.I.A".  In order to substantiate these "suggestions" he uses the fig leaf of a scientific communication by Botao Xiao, that it calls a "smoking gun" report. I will come to the quality (or lack of) the Botao Xiao's scientific communication in a mo, but what i can tell you is that this communication does not at any stage claim there are "secret" Wuhan laboratories, it does not claim the virus is bio-engineered, it dose not claim it is a bio weapon, and it does not intimate that there is a cover up. 

    *(this is a common trick. the likes of the history channel's Giorgio Tsoukalos do it all the time, saying no it is not aliens to the camera, whilst winking at the camera and nodding their head to imply "Yes, of course it is aliens!". This is normally harmless entertainment when it is silly stuff like aliens, lochness monsters and atlantis, But when it is used for for stuff that actually can do harm to people it becomes something repellent.)

    As for the scientific communication itself? For those that are interested, IMO it is jaffa cakes poor! I know this because i am able to pick holes in it on first reading.  If i can do this, it would never make it past a proper peer review process for an actual paper. Even for a scientific communication, it is full of conjecture (a laboratory source for Covid-2019) with next to no substantive evidence. The only facts it does give are the google map locations of two laboratories (are these the oh so "secret" Wuhan laboratories to which Mr Durden refers?), that the wuhan market did not sell bats and some info of sample collection in regards bats speciemen's at one of the laboratories that carry the closely related Bat CoV ZC45 coronavirus. The paper seems to imply that because the samples were collected from over 900km away from the outbreak epicentre, the laboratories bat specimens have to be a more likely route for Covid-2019 to jump to the populous than the Wuhan food market.  This is an outlandishly big jump to a conclusion! First, CoV ZC45 is not the same as Covid-2019, a 4-11% difference in genetic make up is a massive difference. Second, the argument of a bat colony not flying 900km is fine, but is spurious,  it ignores that cities actually have indigenous bat populations! Third, the bat specimens referred to were collected back in 2017 and 2013!  I read this communication and to me it seems to me the author may be using Covid-19 to have a gripe, possibly justified, about the quality of H&S in china's state funded bio-labs.

    Now, i have had a rant on this because i am seriously angry about Mr Durden's article. It is taking advantage of the suffering and the death of others and the fear of many.  That is about as despicable a level of human behaviour as there is.  For anyone posting on this forum, please have a think before hitting submit. Yes, Covid-19 is worrying but publicising stuff like this without proper consideration is only providing the oxygen for leaches like Mr Durden to make a living off the misfortune others. If anyone has any q's on this then please do ask.

    I think conspiracy theories along these lines were posted and dealt with in the first few pages on this thread.

    And, yes, a quick glance at a ‘paper’ without considering the quality of information can lead to false conclusions, just as reliance on the experts and their opinions wheeled out on MSM to assuage joe public can so do.

    For the avoidance of doubt, I have never suggested that Covid-19 is a mortal disease to which all may succumb worldwide, but the spread and potential impact of a novel virus is of major interest for now, and for the future.

    • Like 3

    Novel Coronavirus – China

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    15 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    Not really. I take my que from pros i hear on tv, radio or at my local docs. I dont think you, or others, on here belong in that category. Correct me if i'm wrong and you are an authentic medical expert.

    Agree, I’m quite unauthentic in this regard, but I have not made definitive statements regarding the situation, only comments about potential outcomes, ( although former work experience regarding infection spread and control might provide me with a smidgeon more insight than your good-self’s holiday experiences)

    • Like 3

    Novel Coronavirus – China

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    Gloom and doom, again. What a f**kin yawn!

    It is disappointing to note that the potential impact of this viral infection, on individuals, local/national communities or on a global scale is so arrogantly dismissed. 

    Anyway, whether it evolves into a pandemic, or not, there will be a beneficial learning curve for future reference.

    • Like 6

    Novel Coronavirus – China

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, snow raven said:

    I've noticed a few in this thread that seem to get excited at all the doom and gloom (and posting any old rubbish off the internet to support their claims that the end of the world is nigh)  I don't think some will be happy in here until we have another Spanish Flu pandemic like in 1918 so they can splutter their last lungful of breath with "I told you so".

    I think that assessment of this thread is a wee bit unfair.

    The concerns are not simply about the mortality rate associated with 2019nCoV but more the impact of widespread morbidity on essential services and business. This is an unknown, and is an interesting and important topic for discussion, as are the measures which might be taken to control the spread.

    And I have not noted much in the way of fake news on here, except, maybe, the determination of one or two to make uninformed ‘off the cuff’ comparisons with seasonal flu.

    • Like 6
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    Scotland /Alba weather discussion 2020

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by ciel

     Sunny, if chilly and bracing here this afternoon; the snow showers just never penetrated far enough east to affect my location.

    A couple of pics, snapped at the same view point, from a walk this afternoon to illustrate;

    View to the N/NW

    snow02.thumb.jpg.efdd47fcec9aff61cd2d3fd47299adc5.jpg

    View N/NE

    305744412_fin02.thumb.jpg.a0b2559a3ad53f52b64fe244044cbe2d.jpg

     

    • Like 16

    Storm Ciara - Atlantic storm 3

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

    I was wondering about that one too  i've never been to Lerwick or the Northern isles but i'd imagine houses are build in similar way to how they are on the mainland.Where i am doesn't seem all that wind proof at all with metal sheet roofs, bits of them occasionally blow off during storms but mine has managed fine through 90mph winds.

     

    I think the difference on impacts in built up areas comes more from downed trees on train lines and roads more than anything else.

    Well, although I have not been up there in the past 5 yrs or so, I did notice at that time quite a change in building, much more to the Scandinavian style. The problem is, Shetland does not have home-grown wood.

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