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Nimbus Nix

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    Wolverhampton, W Mids (123m asl)
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    Snow, Fog, Thunderstorms

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  1. To properly understand the current model discrepancies around the UK in terms of northward/southward shifts etc, many would be better off concentrating on the behaviour of the block around Svalbard and Northern Russia. Here is this morning's ECM at 96H, and corresponding 12z GFS at 84H showing the starting position with a circa. 1050mb High around Svalbard (Focus on heights (colours) only!): From here, the UKMO starts to split the ridge 12 hours later, slowing down the progression of cold air: The 0z ECM is similar to the UKMO 12 hours later, weakening the ridge over Svalbard and inflating the Icelandic ridge: Whereas the 12z GFS keeps a nice elongated ridge connected fully across Svalbard, pushing the colder air further west: This is what you need to look out for on tonight's ECM, forget the Europe view, switch to NH. Can we keep heights high at Svalbard, or does the ridge get broken down as the ECM did so this morning:
  2. ECM 216hrs actually shows a warm core subtropical cyclone off SW portugal which helps the Med ridge up through France:
  3. Having an early look at the 12z NAM, it seems to be much closer to the ECM off SW Greenland than the GFS 6z. The shortwave running through E Canada is possibly even better than the ECM, helping to slow the trough down as it enters the Atlantic: Early days though, we'll see if the 12z GFS follows the trend.
  4. Nimbus Nix

    Storm Imogen

    Two planes seem to be finding landing very difficult at Southampton right now: Just a windy day so far here in Coventry.
  5. Good storm that one north of St Nazaire:
  6. And just like that, the explosive LI's and CAPEs are back out in FI... Plan B:
  7. Brilliant on here now: http://www.earthcam.com/germany/hamburg/?cam=hamburg_hd
  8. Well the 06z 1mb temperature profile wasn't looking too shabby this morning [1]: That's a top temperature of 35.8C with a temperature gradient across the pole just 4C off a full 100C! Not bad even with the GFS' positive temperature bias. Still, we could do with this increasing and propagating down a bit more over the next few days rather than the flip-flopping about we've been seeing as of late. Also I wondered if anyone could explain the significance of the AAM moving gradually into negative territory and going into Phase 1/2 over the next few weeks. It seems to be really quite significant when compared to the last 3 months which have had a consistently low amplitude GWO (from 00z GFS ENS) [2][3]: And the last 3 months [4][5]: Looking back I found a 2008/2009 thread with GP discussing the GWO moving into Phase 1/2/3 and going deeply negative: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/52083-gwo-and-global-angular-momentum/ Could be a promising sign if I'm reading it correctly. [1] http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2014121206&var=TMP&lev=1mb&hour=384 [2,3,4,5] http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/gwo.html
  9. Wow these just came out of nowhere...! Just shows how ripe the atmosphere is for development at the moment
  10. Beautiful rainfall radar on that storm, and looks like there could be some serious straight line SW winds on that SE end: Textbook bow/comma echo as well:
  11. Well although the cold front's passed through, it still felt very warm standing in the sun taking these pictures: Pics 1 & 2 are of a few nice towers building to the west, lovely cloud base on the second one as well: Pics 3 & 4 are of the thundery shower looking WNW towards Telford/Newport, of which I heard 2 or 3 faint rumbles of thunder: Those two pics actually correlate nicely to the satellite pic below, I've marked where I'm standing as a red 'x'. You can see the clouds in the foreground to the south east of the cell quite well. I've slotted the radar image in alongside as well as the sferics (Pics taken next to Wolves' training ground in Wolverhampton)
  12. Some good flashes on this webcam as the storm exits the picture: http://www.padstow-harbour.co.uk/phc_webcam.html
  13. 200 strikes/hour in south-west France now on meteociel: And certainly a big boost in activity around cornwall now:
  14. Been dry in Wolverhampton all day. Actually, looking at that radar makes me think we're in the middle of winter and there's a band of snow inching it's way towards us but never quite getting here! Maybe if it happens now, it won't next winter...
  15. Nimbus Nix

    May 2014 CET thread

    I'll go for 12.3C, don't think anyone's said that one yet. Cooler mid month before we have a warm thundery spell at the end.