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Captain Shortwave

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Everything posted by Captain Shortwave

  1. ECM/GFS/GEM day 7 Signs at least that maybe something more settled is on the way and potentially with an uptick in temperatures too.
  2. June suffered a lot due to the cold spring that preceded it. So much so that in my location at the time (Gt Yarmouth), I actually saw single figure maxima recorded thanks to the wind off the sea. In a normal season June probably would have been a little warmer. July was fantastic from start to finish, unfortunately westerlies returned in August and persisted to bring a mundane end to the summer.
  3. Hard to predict what will transpire over the coming weekend. Looks like a typical broad long fetch west/south westerly. So probably a lot of cloud for western areas with drizzle at times. Further east and particularly to the east of high ground there is the chance of conditions turning very warm and humid. UKMO/ECM/GFS 18z The UKMO looking the slowest at this point, possibly offering the highest temperatures due to lighter winds and a sniff of a more southerly component to the winds Beyond that, probably more of the same, kind of typical that at this point we are looking at the most westerly dominated period of weather for quite some time. However it just looks like pretty normal conditions (albeit quite windy at times), some fairly dry and often warm in the south, cooler and more unsettled generally to the north. There are signs that high pressure to push further north, but it remains at a point where I would like to see some easing down of the jetstream to actually see this being achieved.
  4. Still keen on a week 2 build of heights from the south west. Varying from NW/SE split to a full blown U.K. high forming on the ECM by day 10. A solid lump of warmth in the Atlantic too that could help raise temperatures if the Atlantic feed is cut off (Which a U.K. high would achieve). The green shoots have grown a little higher this evening.
  5. Pretty good model agreement on the Azores high coming much more into play in the 8-10 day range. Both operational and ensemble output. GEFs It remains to be seen whether this will keep trending this way of course but signs that perhaps a return to summery conditions could be on the cards.
  6. Excitement over, back to sunny skies. The temperature holding up around 28c.
  7. This is the same cell that has pushed through central/western parts of East Anglia, just clipped Peterborough and should be moving into Eastern Lincolnshire now.
  8. Well somehow this is not going to end in a bust for my location. Thunder here now, albeit the cell is very small. I can see some CG towards Whittlesey way now. We have the novel blend of torrential rain and sunshine at the same time.
  9. To be fair we have upgraded from just clouds to clouds with some big splashes of rain. There doesn’t seem to be quite enough juice to develop anything meaningful at the moment across the part of the country.
  10. Temperatures really have rocketed up, considering it was cloudy until just after 9am it has risen beyond the last couple of days. Almost at 31c with some cumulus starting to build up now.
  11. Early sunshine gone now as this cloud (associated with the storms further SE) moves through. Just a few spots of rain except tee. The models suggesting some thunderstorms will break out more widely across the west of the region and move north east. Considering 30c is still expected they could pack a punch.
  12. Hard to really tell what the weather is going to be like tomorrow. Honestly I am not really fancying our chances in terms of storms, on the flip side the models have tending to increase maximum temperatures for tomorrow. Arpege (This does show showers moving in late afternoon across the north of the region). Could easily reach the low thirties again tomorrow, the focus being north of London, but more eastern parts will get in on the heat as the winds veer southerly.
  13. Looks like we have maxed out here at 30.4c, a tougher higher than yesterday and 31c recorded down the road in Cambridge.
  14. The hot conditions are wide spread today with 30c reached in Wales and SW Scotland.
  15. Nothing better than a stroll and sitting out in the garden on a warm summers evening.

  16. Speaking of complicated model output, our next challenge is a retrograding ridge into the beginning of next week and the subsequent forcing delivered from the artic profile. The GFS wants to quickly establish a trough to the north east and cold air descends that way. The UKMO/GEM not so convinced and actually manage to build heights close to the U.K. again next week. Day 6 GFS UKMO and GEM Not a lot of confidence for next week, but any kind of ridge near to the U.K. with residual low heights in the Atlantic could produce something reasonable for many. Could be struggling towards the north west though again (sorry).
  17. Many locations in the region already over 25c, so a widespread 30c+ day looks very likely. Especially as skies are supposed to remain clear throughout.
  18. So overall, the weekend looks pretty unsettled and increasingly windy. However we may get a respite at the start of the following week with some sort of ridge moving in from the south west (probably more a NW/SW split but still temperatures probably returning to the mid-twenties by Tuesday). However I suspect the form horse on the weather type will be something close to average in pretty much every way as we move into July.
  19. A beautiful evening, still in the mid twenties even at 8pm. Went for a walk with mini CS around Hampton water, which is just a short stroll away. I think the photo sums things up.
  20. Hmm a much shallower low and still some fairly warm air across the U.K. so probably plenty of showers again but warm in the sunshine. Cooler and windier on Sunday.
  21. Arpege temperature forecasts for the next three days. Low thirties possible, more so in the western half of the region tomorrow and Thursday as the wind will be southeasterly. Eastern areas might see 30C more widely on Friday as winds veer southerly.
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