East_England_Stormchaser91
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Posts posted by East_England_Stormchaser91
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Stronger signals in the mid timeframes for a significant cool down towards the latter stages of the month. If we do see those heights develop successfully over Scandinavia, it’s going to feel positively raw compared to the recent 20c temperatures that we’ve seen!
A cold, crisp and potentially frosty bonfire night perhaps for a change. Wouldn’t it be lovely!-
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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:
You were wrong. You can’t admit your claims were wrong so you move the goal posts. Very irritating.
Anyway. I’m going to crack on with my day rather than waste time with someone I don’t even know. You’re also wrong. Where’s this widespread warmth you were on about?
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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
Temperatures in-line with average July/peak summer temperatures. Above in some places, including parts of the north and Midlands. Some people have very high expectations!
Their claims were that the warm spell was teetering on the edge and we needed to watch out for a flash northerly. Clearly completely wrong and was never going to happen.
Seems like you’re just here to attack the man rather than the ball. What ever is wrong with you?
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1 minute ago, cheese said:
I do think your skepticism has been perfectly justified for places north of the Home Counties as you previously said mate - as the satellite image above shows about 2/3rds of England is covered in cloud (albeit high cloud). Considering what was being shown earlier this week it’s pretty underwhelming.
I’ll always raise a point and have a say if I feel like the models are onto something and are completely being dismissed. It could have been worse. The models always tend to find a middle ground over their say on upcomings. But there’s no doubt that this has been a big water down as to what was previously being promised. E.g warm, wall to wall sunshine and southerlies with widespread temps into as high as the mid twenties. We certainly wasn’t even thinking about severe flooding or snow even for Scotland.
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The models so far have over-egged the warmth big time. Unless you’re in the Home Counties and south, it’s nothing more than a bog standard warm-ish day to be fair. Certainly getting nowhere near the mid 20’s for the midlands north if it stays this cloudy. Heating soon wanes away quickly now it’s October. I’d say There’s a two hour window left of peak heating.
I won’t say this in the mad thread however as I’ll probably be met with drivel. With a temperature gradient as sharp as it is currently over us, and westerly winds, not southerly, it’s obvious there was going to be a large amount of cloud, not the wall to wall blue skies many were expecting.-
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1 hour ago, MattStoke said:
Spot on. The way some base all their expectations on a few runs of one model is ridiculous. People never learn.
20'C is just above peak summer average for many parts of the UK. Never mind October.
What's the betting they try to convince people they were right about the warm spell collapsing as the vast majority of the UK sees warm, bright conditions over the weekend?
I’d be in agreement and have more confidence if this was a proper Euro high cantered over Germany for example, which is what was showing 5 days ago. This is now far from the case. We have a compressed high centred over France with a negatively tilted low to the North, and the low out west is now further away than what was previously the case, losing its influence further on this setup. It might well be that many still get 20c, but this is now far from a UK wide spell, and we have ended up on a knife edge in keeping the heat to the South. I still think it will go down to the wire for the Midlands, North and East. If you get a northerly on the East coast, it’s a big cool down regardless of upper air temperature. I’ve seen the models go down to the wire so many times in risky setups like these, and all the time with storms and snowy setups, especially slider low events. One adjustment of a couple of hundred miles is not massive range for model output, but it’s an enormous difference for this part of the world.
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Currently, it’s only Saturday that looks to be the warmer day unless you’re in the South West of England. Sunday is now looking a lot cooler for many now as to what was to be the case a few days ago. GFS has very much pulled the other models towards the idea of a much watered down warm snap, rather than a spell. A bit of warmth on Monday and Tuesday, then Wednesday onwards is looking very interesting. The pattern will be mobilising and with a real chance of quite a potent Northerly developing. Autumn looks very much upon us next week by the looks of it.
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Pretty extraordinary contrasts whichever way you look at things. Whilst we could see record breaking 850hpa Temps across the South, at the same time, much of the Grampian mountains will be getting their first snow of the autumn and potentially significant snow on the higher tops.
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10 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
I'll bet my house on that not happening. It would be the biggest model flip in history. A lot of hopecasting going on, one thinks.
I’m more than capable of reading, interpreting and observing weather patterns and the potential of what may be around the corner. I’ve been doing it as a pastime all of my life. A negatively tilting low bearing down and squeezing a high to the South often ends up with a retrogression West of a high pressure system. This is what we could have here. I’m highlighting potential and giving space to one of the best forecasting systems in the world, which seems to be having a different say.
Not sure how long you’ve been watching models then. This would be far from the biggest flip in history. December 2012 and 2005 were much bigger.-
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The low out west and height rises towards S Greenland should be very closely watched over the next 24-48 hours. If the Northern arm/shortwave of the general low pressure system forces down any more on the high to the S of the UK, then any more retrogression West of that high could very easily open the floodgates to a flash Northerly, effectively wiping out the warmth. North Norfolk for example could well be already out of the game with the warmth if the North wind makes it onshore there, regardless of upper air temps. An onshore wind would give a possible temperature inversion.
This may well come down to a nowcast situation on Saturday and certainly on Sunday. We are on fine margins now with what was looking like a countrywide warm spell with 15c uppers on a southerly protruding previously into Scotland.-
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Just now, MattStoke said:
Scotland showing as single digits on one computer model having been shown to be in cooler conditions with persistent rain for quite a while now anyway. That's it.
One computer model shifting colder air a touch further south against all other model output, with all areas that were initially predicted to be warm still predicted to be warm = 'Teetering on the brink'. Suggestive of the whole warm spell not happening and us all being plunged into colder air. What nonsense.LOL.
Argue with the GFS then please. I’m merely quoting the output of what it is suggesting. It isn’t too warm that’s for sure.-
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12 minutes ago, MattStoke said:It's nowhere near 'teetering on the edge'. I'm sorry but it just isn't. A few hundred miles might be small on a global scale but there is next to nothing to suggest a plunge of cold air over the UK this weekend (or early next week). Everything points to warmth away from the persistent rain across Scotland and nothing has changed in the past 5 days except that the warmth looks likely to continue into mid next week instead of ending over the weekend.
There’s areas going to be in single digits according to some outputs now that were previously showing low 20’s. Literally knife edge stuff! If that isn’t a huge change, then I’m not sure what is. We can agree to disagree on this one I’m afraid. It would be plain foolish to write off one of the most relied upon models in the world.
Latest GFS run shows this and has been literally trending further south for days.
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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
5 days ago, it was shown as a weekend only affair.
Going back to my comment. This really is teetering on the edge of a very different outcome temperature wise. Where I am currently has me under the 14c isotherm on Saturday. However, just 100 miles north over the Yorkshire coast, the isotherm is getting below 0c. It would be like day and night depending on what comes to fruition on the day. The Arpege hi res model and the GFS both say so.
I would say it’s far from an odd comment to be fair.-
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3 hours ago, MattStoke said:
There isn’t a single model showing this warm spell ‘teetering on the edge’ this weekend. All have extended into next week. What an odd comment.
I must be looking at models runs from last week or something then..
To my eyes, this has been significantly watered down compared to around 5 days ago.
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What was looking like an extensive spell of warm weather is now teetering on the edge of a potential quick flip to a battleground with some really quite chilly air on the verge of flooding down from the North. An adjustment of 500 miles south really could change everything temperature wise this weekend.
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The most impressive thing would not only be the wind, but the nocturnal temperature surge up to 24c overnight from 19-20c the previous day!
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Hunstanton right now again. Another shelf cloud! Hearing thunder too. September to remember.
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6 hours ago, Mcconnor8 said:
Radar looks very intense over there
Poor old Mrs was trying to desperately get to sleep! Then here’s this nutter (me) saying “oh my word” at the anvil crawlers streaming across overhead. Some real loud ground shakers occurred as the storm was departing North. Probably the loudest thunder of the year so far, and by far the most intense night storm of the last 3 years.
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My word this is nuts!!!
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22 minutes ago, Norfolk Sheep said:
I love your optimism!
Personally I think it's a case of renting a yacht and heading out into the N Sea...
Keep the faith bud. Some cells firing off over Peterborough now.
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Quite hopeful for Norfolk and the rest of EA getting something later on. Dorset to the Wash and SE of that probably still in the game for some proper stuff.
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France is lighting up like a Christmas tree. Jeez.
SE and EA should watch out.-
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Wow not looking bad! Many on the S Coast are in for a treat. Having a warmer channel at 18-19c must be helping.
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1 hour ago, ChannelThunder said:
Can confirm Paul is doing good; I went chasing with him in Arizona last month! From spending time with him I think he's just given up with storms in his area, so that'll probably explain why he's not posted in a while. We saw some crackers over the pond though of course!
While I'm on the subject, I made a thread about that trip, including photos and a blog I wrote, over in the Storm Chase USA forum on here, if you or anyone else is interested! Such a great holiday
It’s definitely on my list that’s for sure. Would love to go chasing in the states one year soon. The storms and supercells there just look out of this world every season.
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Storms and Convective discussion - April 2024
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Glad to see the return of storm season. I’m out of hibernation. It’s been one tedious winter! Happy it’s done with.
If we can get any storms like September 10th last year, I’ll be amazed. Best surface based storm I’ve seen for some years, not to mention the night storm that followed that same week. The year is very young.