East_England_Stormchaser91

Wade 10th September 2023. It was an absolute belter.

Wade We had our turn last September. With that mothership churning out circa 600 strikes/min!

Be interesting to see how this pans out. Most of the potential energy is actually capped in across BeNeLux and anywhere NE of Paris. Anywhere up to Norfolk from Kent could be in with a shout, but more likely Kent is going to come off best from this one. Sussex and parts of Hants more likely to see precip from the main band, but probably less in the way of electrical activity the further South and west you go.

Supacell good luck and all the best on your chase mate

If I get time tomorrow evening/night, I may head south and chase. Somewhere like Stansted might be a good starting point. Storm season is back!

Evening! Sky looked very thundery and unstable with altostratus and altocumulus spreading in from the SE, enveloping a lovely sunset out west. Very odd and unorthodox. If you knew no better, you’d be thinking the pattern would be sending it in the usual NE direction! Every chance of a fair few flashes in some potentially lively E/SE imports over the next 48 hours!

Incredible outbreak. By the time I’d logged off, there had been 83 confirmed tornadoes in a single day. Insane. Some of them twisters in Nebraska and Iowa appeared not from this world, with what looked like Timelapsed footage happening in real time! Must’ve been a tremendously strong low level jet thrown into the mix.

Glad to see the return of storm season. I’m out of hibernation. It’s been one tedious winter! Happy it’s done with. If we can get any storms like September 10th last year, I’ll be amazed. Best surface based storm I’ve seen for some years, not to mention the night storm that followed that same week. The year is very young.

Stronger signals in the mid timeframes for a significant cool down towards the latter stages of the month. If we do see those heights develop successfully over Scandinavia, it’s going to feel positively raw compared to the recent 20c temperatures that we’ve seen! A cold, crisp and potentially frosty bonfire night perhaps for a change. Wouldn’t it be lovely!

Anyway. I’m going to crack on with my day rather than waste time with someone I don’t even know. You’re also wrong. Where’s this widespread warmth you were on about?

Seems like you’re just here to attack the man rather than the ball. What ever is wrong with you?

I’ll always raise a point and have a say if I feel like the models are onto something and are completely being dismissed. It could have been worse. The models always tend to find a middle ground over their say on upcomings. But there’s no doubt that this has been a big water down as to what was previously being promised. E.g warm, wall to wall sunshine and southerlies with widespread temps into as high as the mid twenties. We certainly wasn’t even thinking about severe flooding or snow even for Scotland.

The models so far have over-egged the warmth big time. Unless you’re in the Home Counties and south, it’s nothing more than a bog standard warm-ish day to be fair. Certainly getting nowhere near the mid 20’s for the midlands north if it stays this cloudy. Heating soon wanes away quickly now it’s October. I’d say There’s a two hour window left of peak heating. I won’t say this in the mad thread however as I’ll probably be met with drivel. With a temperature gradient as sharp as it is currently over us, and westerly winds, not southerly, it’s obvious there was going to be a large amount of cloud, not the wall to wall blue skies many were expecting.

I’d be in agreement and have more confidence if this was a proper Euro high cantered over Germany for example, which is what was showing 5 days ago. This is now far from the case. We have a compressed high centred over France with a negatively tilted low to the North, and the low out west is now further away than what was previously the case, losing its influence further on this setup. It might well be that many still get 20c, but this is now far from a UK wide spell, and we have ended up on a knife edge in keeping the heat to the South. I still think it will go down to the wire for the Midlands, North and East. If you get a northerly on the East coast, it’s a big cool down regardless of upper air temperature. I’ve seen the models go down to the wire so many times in risky setups like these, and all the time with storms and snowy setups, especially slider low events. One adjustment of a couple of hundred miles is not massive range for model output, but it’s an enormous difference for this part of the world.

Currently, it’s only Saturday that looks to be the warmer day unless you’re in the South West of England. Sunday is now looking a lot cooler for many now as to what was to be the case a few days ago. GFS has very much pulled the other models towards the idea of a much watered down warm snap, rather than a spell. A bit of warmth on Monday and Tuesday, then Wednesday onwards is looking very interesting. The pattern will be mobilising and with a real chance of quite a potent Northerly developing. Autumn looks very much upon us next week by the looks of it.