CanadaAl

Looks awesome. I would think a few areas south and east of that amber area could get into some of the action too. Definitely some now casting moments ahead.

I'm sure there will be some surprising totals to account for especially with evaporation cooling,e.t.c

NW essex looking primed to get 10cm according to ECMWF. Best snowfall opportunity since January 2013 and it's only December!

I agree but this is the Model discussion thread after all haha

Yeah i'm fairly certain a lot of them don't appear until 5/6 days before, anyways. You could be on to something, we won't know until probably middle of next week. I imagine.

Yeah i honestly think if the ECM went on a few more frames you'd see the signs of a scandi/iceland high start to develop. It's definitely a 'who gets there first' type situation. if the ridge can get ahead of the trough, chances are those lows won't take the high down. Ideally sliders and retrogression later but i'll bank this.

I guess south of london doesn't look great but East anglia still looking at sizeable amounts. 8 inches for NW essex expected (according to weather.us ECM 12z)

I'm glad to see some reasonableness here. All this doom and gloom and we can't even get sunday pinned down yet! as Tamara and GP said, the models will struggle with this potential switch from polar maritime to scandi high. We've even had the 12z give us a bit of a teaser of what could develop from 22nd onwards. Some eye candy from the ECM

Interesting, looks like the GFS is falling more inline with the ECM with that "super low" coming off canada at 174h. Hoping it's not a trend for a renewed Atlantic onslaught. A lot to enjoy in the shorter range though!

Completely agree, goes to show how it's all to play for until Saturday eve at least.

Still all to play for but it is normally tough for anywhere in the SE to benefit from this setup unless there is already cold air. You really need a channel low type setup bringing winds off the continent to deliver the goods. However, as we've seen in the past it's a lot of 'nowcasting' at the time.

it's all about locale i guess. I can understand why those in the SE are feeling downbeat but it could all still change.

Yeah it does seem that way, still time will only tell. Also the system moving through on Monday afternoon has corrected south meaning most are missing out on a good dumping.

It's on a french site so it's an hour ahead (CET)

It was Sunday 20th of January. Similar event on the 18th as well

It looks unlikely that the PV will intensify to this level at least in the next 2 weeks. Positive PNA should see to that

Yeah I should of said, at the +192 range. It's not a full Atlantic onslaught but we're not seeing heights that we did over greenland/scandi. Still very good <192 range.

Looks like downgrades on the 06Z and the 12Z from last nights pubs runs (18Z and 0Z) eagerly waiting for the 18Z to see where it's heading. ECMWF is a thing of beauty!

the MetO are the ones who forecast a mild winter for 09/10 and we know how that turned out. I think they always want to err on the side of caution and wait until at least 5 days out

Very impressive run. Pressure charts might not look as good as the 18Z but precipitation charts are a lot better. If only we can see that low drop into europe and a scandi ridge form, that'd be the icing on the cake

@The Eagle but look later on at something slyly edging it's way up the east coast of North America. Could be nothing but if that low in the Atlantic merges with that scandi low, it could be game on. edit: far too much energy coming off the east coast in this run

I'm In Calgary, snowing outside as I type this, set for 3 days of continuous snowfall. Definitely the best part of moving here! At first my gut was leading me to 2009/2010 winter then 12/13 and now 13/14 Over here we are beginning to see a persistent pacific high which is set to give us a very cold few weeks but my concern for everyone back in the UK is the stormy potential from a potentially energized jet stream caused from the deepening cold in Canada meeting with the lows travelling up the eastern U.S. I'm glad to see a forecast for a trop vortex-split in the mid range but looking at the strengthening vortex in the short term, i'm not sure if the vortex is going to strengthen and then get itself comfortable as it did in 2013/14. However, with it only being November 1st and an easterly QBO among with low sunspot activity gives me more hope than 3 years ago. All aboard the model roller coaster!

So far its looking on course to hit our region. Judging by the spinning "Mother low" over in Scandi, it seems to be on a south east track. What it falls as is anyone's guess

Looks like February is our last chance saloon for us in the South. Beginning to understand the pessimism now

I guess in the winter of straw-clutching. Seems next weekend is the one to watch. Hopefully that low will drop as it did Boxing Day