Allseasons-si

The control and the mean at 120.

The gfs ends with a split flow over the pole....again,been a re-occuring theme from the gfs.

Lol the storm is only aproaching N Ireland/West Scotland on that chart and is further north than the gfs and later,where as the storm(center is over east anglia) on the gfs,there will be a lot of fine tweaking/timing to come nearer the event that's for sure. both for 120 hrs

And the latest ukmo fax chart for 12:00 sunday the gfs has been bang on the money,if it still comes off but it has been consistant the last few days.

Looks like the gfs is on the money at the moment,if it comes off,the gfs has been predicting this storm for Sunday for days now.

Just had a squall line pass through,i got soaked just getting from the car to the front door.

I think we should factor in the higher sst's around the BI thanks to a prolonged summer,that will(i think) aid more in the way of cyclogenesis the 18z gfs is at it again,this is worrying times as much as i would like to see it happen but the other half of me would not want it to happen cos i fear there could be a fatality or two if it was to come off this could be dangerous.

The walkers crisp packet will be a runner,that's about it seriously though there shoudn't be a warning out for this http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/pression/3h.htm a bit breezy yes but later in the week looks windier and esp Sunday if it comes off.

The snow rows are increasing in Scotland from yesterday's gefs ens diagram yesterday's/today's

Slightly further north this time from the 18z gfs but it is still there,i give gfs credit that it has been showing this for a good few runs now,maybe it will be well north of this when the time comes,we shall see.

Same with this one,bizzare this is.

Here is a 104 hr loop of Florence,no wonder there is flooding.

Again the gfs 18z has this low modelled for next weekend

Some snow maybe on the tops up your way next weekend

Scotland ens diagram and there is some snow rows in there

There is some topsy-turvy weather in the ens and i do hope that the daughter low modelled in some of the ens at 156>> doesn't come off because that would pose a threat for some distruction in parts of the country but there is equally some nice ens members in there too post 156 after this clears through there looks to be some chilly nights with the wind swinging round to a northwesterly as can be clearly seen on the gefs ens chart with the 0c isotherm clearing the south and the 850's diagram below the gfs op and control have the system but the gfs/p and the latest ecm doesn't,so it will be interesting what outcome becomes correct i don't have the latest from the cpc anomly's yet but last night's matches the ecm/gfs/p scenario.

,that is funny Has somebody got a blower at him.

This is the Helene thread mate but thanks Florence thread here

The ecm is a cold outlier on the ens (London) ecm mean at 192-240 shows the Azures high influencing the weather from the SW esp the south and southeast of the uk the latest cpc 500 mb outlook reflects this 6-10 and 8-14 day anomoly's. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Hate those chavies,no-gooder hoodies,they remind me of a grim reaper.

Have they been chavved or grazed?

We would be screaming the place down if these charts was showing up in winter,pv displaced well west of Greenland

A 4.2 EQ happened in Bardarbunga 9 hours ago. http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes#view=map http://baering.github.io/ http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/?p=7677 Friday 14.09.2018 10:40:13 64.662 -17.471 1.2 km 4.2 99.0 3.6 km NE of Bárðarbunga