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Everything posted by Allseasons-si

  1. That shortwave running west under the block could be a pain as in lingering around the S uk and been picked up be the trough to the west,that would be the scenario that i would not want to see as it picks up a southerly(ecm) the other day.
  2. A final note re:- the signature i seem to recall that the gfs picked out the cold scenario back in 2010 in FL when we had a mild southerly,the hp cell did the damage back then driving WAA into the pole and hey presto! the signal has been there for a few days now ok every year is different but this year looks similar.
  3. That is one serious blocking and i for one could say that it is best located in my view.
  4. It does say forecasted temps for london so i would asume surface temps.
  5. Chart of the day from parra that is one hell of a -NAO/AO signature.
  6. Evening all well the latest from the cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb outlook suggest's that the retrogression of the +ve height's(forecast) to head into Geenland from Scandi,this shows me that we are in a great possition with attacks from the north/northeast,i don't for the minute see the hp cell collapsing or retreating S/SE as there are lower height's there to prop the block up the latest NAO/AO still forecasted to tank into neg too so all is looking good at slowing the jet down,what jet lol the ecm playing silly buggers with the De-Built temps,dewpoints and wind direction,on it's own then i would of thought p.s,i am liking the 18z gfs parra with that big Alaskan hp cell,a big 2 wave pattern that if ever i saw one finally,at this stage,all roads are leading to cold,how cold and how snowy is anyone's guess,but it looks good for this time of the year thanks.
  7. Evening,late to the party tonight,sorry! but what a great set of runs this evening/tonight from a sobering morning of output of which was a bit of a downgrade and just shows you how finely balanced the weather can be,expect more chopping and changing to come as always when it comes to nailing narnia down to t0 what is certain is the block to our NE with an easterly of sorts,here are the latest wind directions from De-Built as you can see,all members(well 90 odd%) are going for this now,remember what i posted som days ago about getting more members on board?:- the latest from cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb height anomoly's,the Atlantic is dead in the water there and hints of a trough forming out towards Siberia the latest from the NAO/AO still tanking 10-hpa zonal mean zonal wind we are in a good position here but will we land with the lottery ticket? i liked this.
  8. The jma 10hpa at 264 and the mean for the same time,not bad. Good to see you back with us @nick sussex
  9. WOW!!! over a hundred members in here and is nearly 12am as anyone got work early in the morning of doing a bunk lol the latest from cpc shows that hp cell retrogressing further west as opposed to the other charts i have been posting over the last few days and the latest NAO/AO tanking negative now good times i feel but i still remain cautious as to whether anything will deliver for now.
  10. Snow advancing west on the para http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=204&code=code&mode=16&mode3h=0&runpara=1&carte=0&runpara=1&
  11. Just look at the signal there,i would say 70%-80% in favour is good.
  12. Gefs ens means 240 and 384 all this talk of Scandi height's over the last fews days and prob bringing faux cold because the continent isn't cold enough,now who would of thought that we could see a retrogression of height's west into the Alantic and posssibly Greenland,last thursday's ec 46 dayer picked this up could we see a 2010 repeat?
  13. yes,granted do the op and control lead the way and the members follow?
  14. I edited your post,hope you don't mind the control has lower height's under the block from 192>more retrogresion west of the hp cell,this could be a stonking run with a northerly imminent.
  15. And a big shift west/NW after that are we going to see a closed hp cell to our north in subsequent runs?
  16. evening all here is the latest from cpc and if this is right the block will win out the Atlantic and looks a dead cert,shift that now we have the block as a dead cert the NAO/AO showing signs of weakening and trending into negative now what i do like is the progresion of the wind direction over the last few days and this evening most if not all are in the same ball park(third image) now if you get blocking north of the BI it is classed as northern blocking,here is the height anomoly's from both the ecm and gfs 12z at 240 and would promote retrogression of the hp cell west,the gefs ens gif shows this although slightly muted as it goes on of which it will do out to that range,but one thing that stands out on that gif is that the pv is transferred from N canada to N Scandi/NW Russia poised for dropping a trough down from the north/northeast.