Allseasons-si

The control is at it again all be it deep in FL.

Yes it is but nice to look at though,the 18z just doesn't get there in terms of potency but on the same track,we will have a look in the morning to see if it still picks this signal up.

The gfs 18z is starting to look like the 12z control at 228 hrs. lol,you just bet me to it Feb...

What is it with the control run of late spawning charts worth dwelling over lets take a look at it it all happens around day ten(yes i know it's day ten sigh) deep trough in N Canada forces WAA ahead of it up the west side of Greenland(black arrow),also notice the arctic high(white circle) creating some reverse -AO(arctic oscillation)(orange arrow) forcing the trough west of Greenland south lets have a look at the animated sequence of both the 500mb height's and 850. ' will it set a trend?

A very nice pronounced halo around the moon tonight,does this signal a cold winter?,it's one of the folklore's that i have heard of.

A bit more amplification on this run at day ten with more trough disruption west of the BI and with more WAA north toward Svalbard compared to the flatter 12z,also watch for the back door to open up as the Scandi high develops that could produce cooler air round the back(red arrows),one to watch in future runs. yes it's looking like drying up and warming up a tad thank god,but it will be interesting what happens from here, now this looks a bit interesting from Judah Cohan with a HP cell developing over Scandinavia https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1183458842404933634/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1183458842404933634&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.netweather.tv%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fjudah47%2Fstatus%2F1183458842404933634%3Fs%3D19 And chio has just posted recently over on the strat thread.

The gfs was a cold outlier according to the gefs ens,but has support from the control.

The gem is a splendid run Mike up to 240,dry fine autumn days with some mist and fog about at night,lovely.

Oh! yes!

It shows sighs of retrogressing west further on in the run,now that would be interesting,just one run and completely different to the 06z but i would welcome the drying out process.

11 days in and no sign of any fog yet nor in the future,20 days left to go,WE...NEED...HIGH...PRESSURE...

I hope this comes off as i too want drier days as my lawn is looking like a jungle at the moment hiding all the ,and i need to replenish the fence with a lick of paint looking at the latest from cpc there does look like a trough lifting out with gradual heights taking hold later on,lets see what happens.

Tokyo live.

Lol,here you go then seriously!!! how can you write winter 2019/20 off biased on the longer range seasonal model/s? lets just say that we have a better chance than in the summer months lets just enjoy the ride coming up because i am looking forward to all the gossip on this forum of which i enjoy,there is some good folk on here who know what they are talking about and sometimes they get it wrong and take it on the chin. i would just like to say a welcome back to Catacol and S4lancia ,Chio and GP(Glacia Point) should hopefully be posting soon and as Legritter says... 's all round

The 12z gefs control isn't without interest with a nice Scandi high and a possible undercut to the trough in the Atlantic,all speculative...yes

Keeping my eye on this line of showers intensifying just to the north of me,it looks like a CZ to me,i don't think they will produce any sferics but i could be wrong.

Lets hope the control is in control the ens suit,flat lining around the 0 isotherm at this local i feel something is a foot,hopefully a foot of snow soon

Spectacular storm over lake Garda now.

Bardolino,lake garda. https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/veneto/verona/lungolago-cisano-bardolino.html

got you.

Just seen a double CG on here,i think the cam is facing N/NE. https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/sicilia/palermo/ustica-cala-santa-maria.html this is the daytime view.

that makes a change,we need this repeating pattern to continue into the winter months.

The control is some what consistent,i posted it yesterday evening and looks very similar run that chart to 300 hrs 850hpa temps and you get this,-4 isotherm down past the south coast,bonkers for September,sorry,October.

Lets have a closer look,that looks pretty windy. if it was to come off.

I did say recovering,maybe i should of stated into neutral territory.