Allseasons-si

Thanks for clarifying the Nick i was prob getting a bit hasty with regards to amplitude in that sector and getting carried away as do most folk on here when they see even a sniff of cold scenario's in the NWP'S lets hope we see this amplitude gain momentum over the coming days.

Evening nice to see that the gfs is churning out yet another stonker of a run as did last nights when it was trying to sniff out a Scandi block but it's all for good viewing purposes only until we count it down,and the pv looks to be weakening with double barrels of warmings happening in fl nice chart at 336 a good -NAO sig there just waiting for the latest 18z strat charts to come out but look at the 12z,two warmings putting stress on the spv there. 18z out now. over to the gefs ens to see where it fits,hopefully a good set this time as the 12z was a bit shocking.

And a final one from me regarding the MJO,it seems that the orbits go into the COD(cirlce of death) after nearly getting into phase 8 but they look to pull out of the COD and spiral into phase 6 again,this could possibly head back into phase 7 and on wards again gefs/cfs and ecm.

The gfs 18z was a mild outlier,in fact this set looks colder than the 12z after the initial cold snap around the 28th/29th also i have noticed that there is a secondary warming towards the end of the gfs op/control,the pv is getting knocked around a bit esp the control.

I certainly wouldn't worry about the uppers at that range or an easterly,we need to see if the models repeat this scenario in future runs.

It could very well be but i would take it after the crap winter that we have had so far march can deliver ie:- 2013,2018 and i would have probably missed a few,my memory isn't that clever but i remember those two. still,we have Feb to go so lets see what happens.

Finally some interest in the 18z,of course JFF now can we get a Scandi high... @nick sussex,the UKMO best of the bunch at day Severn.

Quiet right,the uncertainty is around the 120 mark as regards to what happens to the lows off the NE'ern seaboard as i mentioned above we need these lows cut off and stalled as much as possible for a clean NW'ly flow otherwise the lows phase out west amplifying a ridge ahead of them.

You forgot "POTENTIAL" Pete Anyway the ecm phases the low/trough over the UK at day ten,could it run into cold air as it approaches? a long way off but the "POTENTIAL" is there

The ecm 144 hrs is very similar to the UKMO in not phasing that low off the Eastern seaboard as can be seen for comparison to this mornings 12z 144 v 06z 168 ^this is what we want to see in terms of getting that NW'ly flow more pronounced and getting those cooler/colder temps in this is better from the ecm,trough/low still not phasing with the parent one even at 192.

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Very very nice indeed we had some stunning sunsets here too,especially on 29th Dec me and my workmate are planning a trip up there soon for some hiking,i have missed Scotland and it has been a while since the last time i visited.

Well the ICON's going for it so who will be right. lets see how the rest of the 12z suits are like later.

Temp anomaly. gefs for same time. onward and upwards.

You shouldn't of said that tighty,that's like saying to your friends that cold and snow is on the way next week,then nothing happens on a more serious note the eps ens are out and are looking increasingly colder now towards the end and the mean 500mb and 850's are looking good def a colder NW flow there,what transpires after this is anyone's guess.

Would love to see day eleven but this is ok. pressure building in behind it.

WHOAH!!! steady on ECM a tonking stonker coming up me thinks.

The gefs ens are colder towards the 26th than the 06z then bounce back to average,or will they?

Yes bring it on our seas haven't cooled that much due to the mild winter that we have at the moment so convection will be a bonus.

At day ten someone pass me the... the models are gaining traction now the models are wiping there mjo glasses.

I am looking for a weaker pv over NE Canada on this run and i can tell you that over the last couple of days this has waned somewhat and if this continues then the hp cell in the Atlantic has a chance of breaking through that and gaining amplitude into Greenland here is tonight's 18z at 168 v 18z 192 last night and the 18z 216 the night before now tell me where most of the upgrades and what area have been substantial to our NW.

Finally starting to see a cooler trend at the end of the eps ens and a mean flow from the NW let the upgrades continue,we have been waiting for a long time,it payback time.

Well the ECM is nothing like the gfs at 192....but the high is retrogressing west so should produce a NW'ly flow.

There would be no pv left

The control run JFF.