Allseasons-Si

The NOAA/CPC are upgrading there MJO plots:- We are in the process of upgrading these plots to provide a more reliable service. The aesthetics of some plots will change over the next several weeks as we roll out the new code base, but the underlying data will be the same. Please send any questions or comments to Kyle.MacRitchie@noaa.gov. Thank you for your patience. some are still the same but the ECM and a few others have changed/upgraded. CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Madden - Julian Oscillation WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

The gfs ship just misses our Island but NH'y it has a split trop through the Urals and beyond,different to the 12z but the theme is still the same.

Evening all some juicy charts(NH) popping up in the extended on the gfs/gefs 12z and these have been showing up quite regularly for the past few days postage stamps gefs12z at 384 https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=11&ech=384 the cpc are slightly coming on board re:-Scandi ridge starting to show it's hand into the extended http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov//favicon.ico Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook ORIGIN.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV whether this gains a foothold,time will tell a look at the AO and we start to see a tanking into -ve neg values into the extended CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV lastly a look at the De- built ens from the ecm and the easterlies are gaining traction now(black circle),there where flatline westerlies a few days ago http://www.weerplaza.nl//Content/Images/icon-app.png 15daagse Midden - Weerpluim ECMWF-EXPERT | Weerplaza.nl WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL Bekijk de 15 daagse trend Europees weermodel voor regio Midden. Weergave van de ECMWF-EXPERT pluim met de lange... well some think it might be too early for some cold and snow but is it?

Is anyone having trouble with the 18z gfs (stuck at 120)?,the NOAA/cpc site isn't working either.

The gfs 18z is pretty similar to the 12z NH'y wise consistency is key here a look at the NAO/AO and it looks like we have to put up with a strong +NAO/AO on both accounts but looks to return to neutral or even below neutral in the extended.

Yes @Jon Snow,there is some beauties and i cherry picked the cold ones obviously Pert 12,16 the gfs wasn't bad either synoptic wise,do i spot an arctic rabbit in there somewhere and like others have mentioned,the ECM looks promed to retrogress the high west/NW all JFF but they keep on showing good synoptic charts there is nothing lurking in the cpc woodshed though so i am sat on the fence at the mo,too early anyway but if the cold does come mid Nov,i will take it.

The control run deep in the realms of fl... northern Europe into the freezer would be a good start,now can we tap into that cold air?,i wouldn't bet my house on it

West of Palermo,sicily,Italy. Live Cam Mondello Beach - Palermo WWW.SKYLINEWEBCAMS.COM Wonderful view of one of the most beautiful beaches of Sicily

Looks good so far synoptic wise.... just need the temps a little lower.

The latest from the control run... This should be a good finish.

I was just about to post a comment about that myself and it all ends up in a big standoff. the first signs maybe?

Pessimist

Here is an interesting read:- How will La Nina affect our winter weather? | Official blog of the Met Office news team BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK La Niña is now present in the tropical Pacific and forecasters are suggesting these conditions... and the strong La nina event that started to take place in July that year,interesting. http://en.wikipedia.org//static/favicon/wikipedia.ico 2010–12 La Niña event - Wikipedia EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

That seems a fair estimate but i will raise you a tad and go with -17.6,my expectations are willing to be slightly higher that yours as for here i would plump for -5.7.

You are not wrong there Damian 2009/10 and 2010/11 where both coming out of the solar cycle minimum i believe and produced the wintry goods but also solar max has produced i think it's to do with other factors/puzzles that also have to align correctly and there are so many of them like i posted in the mod thread the other night but like you say,it cannot get any worse than last winter and i think we are in a better position this time,,,,hopefully.

Course there is but which year ??? come on we are barely into autumn anyway,long post coming up:- back to model viewing,i have an inkling that if we get a hp cell parked near or over the UK there is every possibility of it shifting west in time to allow for more of a polar maritime influence,i say this because the mjo is heading into the favorable phases of 7-8-1 gefs and ecm to a lesser extent as always because it's legs only go out to day ten the only problem here is that they are not amplified enough(away from the cod)(circle of death) to diminish a full on zonality to become more amplified and meridional if you know what i mean,IE:- more amplified,the more meridional(red arrows) here is an illustration of the jet in zonal and amplified modes- to get the amplification you will need wave breaking,wave breaking is the break up of low pressures at an extent where high pressure forms in between lows sufficient enough to break the chain of the lows,this in turn causes amplification between low's and then a buckle effect is then created in the jet stream the NAO/AO(North Atlantic/Arctic Oscillation) are pretty much in the same family as to what drives our weather in the NH(NORTHERN HEMISPHERE),sos for the caps lol at the moment the NAO/AO are at a neutral phase and are forecast to become slightly positive,this in turn enhances the zonality of the weather patterns CPC - Climate Weather Linkage: Teleconnections WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV as you can see the AO is going into a positive territory,this in turn ramps up the pv from it's wake and sets the turn for a more zonal westerly regime forcing the NAO to aslo drive west what we want is a -NAO/AO(dream scenario) but a -NAO can work as long as there is sufficient amplification in the Atlantic to slow the jet stream and become negative and buckled(meridional) as you can see below,here are the 10/30 hpa temps over the north pole Climate System Monitoring / TCC DS.DATA.JMA.GO.JP Climate System Monitoring / TCC at the top of the strat the temps are colder the the average mean(grey line),this is quite normal,this is what i will always monitor going into the winter months if you get an uptick like this going into the winter months then this signals a SSW(sudden stratospheric warming) not all SSW's will result in a cold winter in the UK as we have found out recently(cannot remember the year)but favor more blocking and colder weather to push further south out of the pole into the mid latitudes sorry for the long post,i just got a bit bored,i wish that i didn't book/waste this week off work but my OH was in hospital until thursday this week with a stomach hernia so it has been hard going,she was tested three times over the ten days in staying in hospital for COVID-19 and all came back neg which is great news,i don't want to derail the thread but this year has been a testing time to say the least i feel this winter has a more traditional feel to it,maybe just me but we do have some puzzles of the jigsaw in our favour:- La nina(not to strong) -1.5 will do solar minimum(time lag)-1-2 years -IOD(a lot better than last year)-what a crap year that was and lastly-QBO,GET A GRIP and that is it,let the cat face the flap(Paddy Mcguinness) night all and stay away from covidiots

Dohh!!!! of course,i didn't check the bottom right of that radar run you posted,i blame my eyes (dry eye syndrome) for that one

Cheers Matt what is the sub'n for that site?

Some showers heading towards you now in NW Wales with sferics.

Hello @Woodboss and a warm welcome to the forum you can check out the wind gusts near you on this site. Wind Map - Britain Observations WWW.XCWEATHER.CO.UK

Sorry I don't have the access to the UKV but i am sure someone will post them

Well there isn't much to discuss about the models this afternoon/evening as they look to be a standard affair with a NW>SE split with the best of the dryer sunniest weather in the SE and unsettled further NW as per the latest Met musings too typical autumn weather really but i hope this pattern becomes unstuck as we trickle into the winter months stay safe all and try to enjoy the rest of your evening laters.

There is plenty more to come from the SW by the looks of it MTMS.

Keep an eye on that line/squall NW of the channel islands,looks like the SE has it's name on it.