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Everything posted by karlos1983
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
B-E-A-UTIFUL!! it's being modeled, so it most certainly IS possible. What a run from the GFS. Likey likey, come to Blighty!! -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In some respects this year is more frustrating model watching than last year, I mean at least we had a fairly good idea consistently of what might be happen in 5 -10 days time One thing we do know, the lack of an organised PV! So don't worry it's not nagative. Quite a majority of the members head sub zero later in the run. Let's hope that becomes a trend! -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
LOL watching the new ECM and it got stage fright from 216 to 240, I would have bet my mortgage on that delivering a northerly at 240. Kind of sums up our luck at the moment. Even when it seems impossible to not get cold, we find a way. I have a feeling in my bones though that our patience will pay off big time at some stage in December! Bring it on! Still a fairly impressive chart at 240 it has to be said if blocky is your thing! -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So the ECM is upgrading today is it? Am I reading that right? -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wow I just got schooled! -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes I get that, but African air isn't something I would associate with cold was more where I was coming from -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
North Africa origin air isn't a preceder to cold I'm aware of, come back in may! Posted before I saw your post ba, everydays a school day then ha ha -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Where has this FIM come from? Not heard of that model before. Any good? -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Fantastic 12z all round, look forward to seeing where the ECM sits in the ensembles later. This certainly would be a timely moment for Ian to drop in and give us a heads up on whether this scandi high has any support from a Met O point of view. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That's a weather porn GIF right there! -
Oh good, cats and dogs just in time for the school run.!
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Met office have now put a wind warning out for my area for overnight into Tuesday morning. Storm will be named then I presume?
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM Mean still looking good to me. PV well away from its normal location, so it's very much as we were. I committed the cardinal sin this morning of over reacting to one chart, I should know better -
Bone dry here, most unexpected looking at the radar, that will soon Change
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well actually it could have ramifications at trop level, so I disagree. let's just hope it's the result of one poor run. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Well I was expecting to wake up to pouring rain. Good Job it's not snow we are missing!
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nice too see a couple going off the chart!! That can only be from heights to our NE surely -
People complaining about lack of snow in the mod thread. They should try living in our region
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Seriously people, it's not even winter yet! We are in with more than just a chance of decent cold. we have a frustrating few days yet of model watching ahead imo, output will vary. One gfs pub run certainly won't decide a winter that hasn't started yet. -
Devon, Dorset, Somerset, wilts looking at a real soaking through tomorrow. Up to a couple of inches possible in places
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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Ha fair enough Ali. Model fatigue perhaps ECM mean looks ok to me as wel! Considering that's the end of autumn, very optimistic heading into early winter -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
karlos1983 replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
looks pretty negative to me Ali? I'll take that for the time of year!