bradymk
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Everything posted by bradymk
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
bradymk replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Comparing ECM 120 to ydays 144 is a lovely sight. Better wedge to our north west, low less of a bowling ball and further west. Regardless of what follows on this run, good to see the ECM moving in this direction as Wednesday/Thurs has crept a day closer on the modelling. -
Latest Icon has the snow across east Wales late Saturday night. Would give a covering before the very cold easterly feed sets in. Very uncertain this and how west it comes though. Following this, as others have touched on above, Wales isn't the main focus of precipitation given the wind direction for the following days but very cold. However can't rule out showers in the east when the easterly wind is at its strongest. Thursday onwards, we then watch with interest. Fingers crossed the cold block puts up a good fight.
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As others have talked about above, If I could ever bank a model run, it would be this mornings ECM. It is unbelievable for Wales - a very cold, mainly dry easterly Sunday-Wednesday. Then low pressure approaches from the SW and crosses the south of the UK, but we also manage to stay in the cold and the snow is pretty extreme as others have said above. Snow depth chart attached. And also the generated forecast for Cardiff from ECM run.
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Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?
bradymk replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Out of the two models that have updated so far, Arpege definitely takes it!! Not that ICON is terrible by any means. Behind the sofa now for the next two... -
Agree! All the warnings are impact assessed and even though it’s uncertain still, even the best case sees temporary or limited accumulations. I’m not too fussed though with that, would be nice to see some falling snow in the daytime at least, accumulation or not. In hindsight, the Met were a little off with their warning today too in regards to Wales but a very difficult forecast.
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Latest ECM has precipitation coming into Pembrokeshire at 10am, falling as snow away from the immediate coast. It then moves across most of South Wales, again snow away from immediate coasts. 1-3cm across most of South Wales. Milder air creeping in later in day turning precip back to rain in Pembrokeshire and coastal south. All models showing different solutions, ECM and Harmonie look the best for us all. Euro4 and UKV have nothing but they have both been poor recently.
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This also from Matt H - EC ENS Snowfall for Saturday. This is an average of all 51 EC Ensemble members I believe, so a strong signal for significant snowfall for Saturday for mid and north wales in particular. I would expect a MetO warning at 11 given only less than 48 hours away Less chance say beacons south at the moment of a significant snowfall (EC still shows 3-5cm for valleys) but certainly time for changes there. Either way pretty chuffed we’re talking about a potentially good snow event again within a week!
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Agree Snowy, its been poor for a while. However I've noticed in the last few days that the rainfall/snowfall parameter on WeatherOnline shows different to what other websites showing Euro4 have. For example - Look at this from Weather.Us, same run, same time as above. (The chart is for 3h total snowfall). It shows some light snow in inland higher areas which will be from when the precipitation first comes in tomorrow but nothing extensive like the WeatherOnline chart. Therefore I think disregard the WeatherOnline one at the moment and use https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr-hd/wales/significant-weather/20210126-0300z.html Either way - tomorrow I think expect some light snow or sleet for areas inland further east as the precipitation first comes into the colder air (7am ish). This turning to rain as the milder upper air then filters in. BBC has sleet for Cardiff at 7-9am and 1/2c before milder and all rain later.