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Froze were the Days

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Everything posted by Froze were the Days

  1. To be fair the ecm46 height anomaly signals for blocking back in late December only grew stronger from January mid-month onwards, firstly with weakish height anomalies near Greenland/mid-Atlantic week 1/2 (which have struggled to materialise) with a stronger signal in the Iceland/Greenland area through to week 3/4 - so hopefully it's just delayed but on track?. Correct me anybody if this isn't accurate (just going by memory).
  2. I don't think they'll show much to be honest but they do seem to suggest east or north east winds so probably convective in nature and I don't know how accurate the model is for convectivity?
  3. Not sure where we go from there but if we did get anywhere near that day 10 point you can see a secondary low develop on it's eastern flank which would move north towards Scandinavia so probably more of a northerly developing and colder uppers being thrown into the mix.
  4. January has been woeful of recent times...2013 the last fairly cold spell but still time to get our hopes up and then dashed
  5. Sadly the rest of it and particularly the 'earmarked' parts have been completely the opposite...at least you gave it a go.
  6. Well at the half way point of the winter and let's face it it's been pretty forgettable, fairly mild a lot of cloudy calm days (as Ian Currie noted in Tom's post above) interspersed with briefly breezier brighter spells and very little in the way of frost...here's to a better second half!
  7. 240 doesn't end bad at all...stationery front with increasing continental air into the mix - so possible snow for some lucky people (central/eastern areas?). Only annoying part is the continuation of low heights near to Iceland and Greenland...
  8. To the north and north/west and higher elevations, I can't ever remember a synoptic similar to that which has brought widespread heavy to other regions though.
  9. Similarities with ECM but if I had to be picky would rather see heights developing someway further north as the slider goes south south east...
  10. particularly isobar's posts - all in encryption, I'm sure about 98% of the posters don't know what he's going on about.
  11. I went in there around 6 'ish (after the gfs/p 12z came out) and again after ecm came out - voiced my opinions of total nationwide snow and over reactions to 300+ hours of 'snowmaggedon' and of course the sad faces and replies came back at me...got out quick!
  12. Glad somebody has a crystal ball - thanks Mulzy ...just as much obsessing over 300+ hour runs on the gfs/p which frankly has been throwing a few out of late (onto something?) who knows.
  13. Seriously how many times have we heard that this winter on the ecm post day 10 !?!...you'd think that would go onto produce maybe something similar to what GFS/p showing a few days down the line but too many variables at that range. On the face of it 198-240z nothing to write home about.
  14. Too many over reactions - it is a theme to drop that chunk of the vortex on or near to the British Isles so a real possibility towards FI, the further north you are in that synoptic then quids in but it could be another M4 job! - a push a little further east would be an improvement
  15. Far more marginal towards the south...dolloping of the stuff to low levels further north, big totals in the hills in the north and Scotland (higher elevations).
  16. I remember at the start of the New Year US forecasters were predicting very mild conditions in the mid-west and the northern states from the impact of the SSW around mid-month onwards - so on that basis they've been about as accurate as what the metO 30 day outlooks have been since late October (not saying they'll continue to be wrong)!...and that's if the above forecast is correct.
  17. Fully agree...looks a bit of a hotch potch from day 7 looks like the model is a bit confused, NW to SE low heights is a consistent feature in a week or so's time.
  18. Yep dry really since Xmas time - but very very boring winter so far, one to forget unless some how this SSW can save us from the tedium!
  19. Talk about misleading - if that came about a snow fest for the midlands, central areas but the south and south east forget it (too much milder air in the circulation from the south) - so that map is incorrect you need more of a 'flatter' sliding area of low pressure or further to the east but probably would turn to snow as the low moves away. (not that scenario has much chance of playing out).
  20. No change really...I wonder if this will eventually head towards the beginning of February for increased likelihood of cold?
  21. 1947 - you got the digits around the wrong way ...sadly I'm not seeing too much that wets the appetite in the foreseeable, still to a degree there's mobility and that area of high pressure to our west south west which looks like hanging around for a week or so and some Pm air masses at times but not sure that's of much in our neck of the woods. Hoping we do get a slither of heights between the lows and get some sort of a slider which disrupts the jet but with my untrained eyes I'm still seeing too much energy around the south of Greenland vicinity and a slight trend away from blocking to the north (certainly on the gfs)...interesting model watching coming up.
  22. Not sure if any of these gfs runs are helping out currently in the evolution towards another 7/10 days time we're starting to get big differences in the mid-term. just all a bit of a hodge podge.
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