Froze were the Days

All this talk of flooding over the last day and here on the Sahara Essex coast only received approx 6.5 mm yesterday and overnight, the 'active' thunderstorm that was over London yesterday afternoon I could see visibly dissipating as it move eastwards and by the time it got here just some light rain with the storm fragmenting in two (the main cell to the south) and just a brief rumble of thunder. With these more like autumnal conditions the temperatures have sort of been forgotten about and are STILL summery in nature, the last few days or so at least reaching 20c here...can we breach the figure again today?, trying it's best 18.6c out there currently and rising and still above the norm for the time of year!

Keep posting Tom dam you! I like reading your posts first thing in the morning with a touch of everything in them - a bit of humour, silly graphics and updated daily forecasts and historical pieces. I don't care what anybody says on here that post made the other day (I know the one which riled me) really is in the tiny minority (you haven't upset other regular female posters)...you're an asset to the SE thread so in the immortal words of KC and the Sunshine Band 'please don't go'... anyway we've all got to stick together to get through another much anticipated winter 2019/20 with great expectations only to be let down again and the hunt switches to the prozac again

Yep! badly needed rain...now we're at the back end of September just hope it doesn't go overboard and we experience nothing else. 4.2 mm here so far, so about the equivalent of one of the rainfalls earlier this month.

To be honest since the start of August we've experienced largely south westerlywesterly conditions with a lot of Tm air and occasional brief Pm slot and nothing has really changed since then in the profile other than a late August plume event, with high pressure so continual largely to the south not surprising it's been so dry...I'm waiting for an 'actual' pattern change...ECM was hinting at one at the beginning of October (from the north) but looks like that's going to pot as well. Some rain at the moment but going by the radar will soon be finishing...

The writing was on the wall (particularly in our location) when forecasters became unsure about rainfall amounts...will be interesting to see how we fair on Tuesday. Total of 14mm so far this month here and the average should be near 40-45mm approx. A band of rain to the west but appears to be weakening (no surprise).

So far spit and spats of 'large' rain drops but nothing of note...humid out there today with temperature at 20.8c

Can't remember what year it was might have been 2011 or 2012 which had a dry autumn which lead onto a dry winter, 2016 was pretty dry and warm by the time September ended if memory serves me right.

Really?...can't ever remember you adding anything to the site other than this post moaning, if one or two posts/posters annoy you simply don't read them, why would that put you off this site?...it's not as if they're every other post. Anyway back to the weather and another glorious morning and 18.1c of great British centigrade.

From heavy possibly thundery stuff to this...if there is uncertainty then you can guarantee what part of the country will miss out.

Well yes somewhat of a pattern change but dramatic?...not something we haven't experienced before this summer, and going by the ECM back to the Atlantic sometime next week though again looks like low pressure systems will be largely well to the north of the UK and probably a spell of breezy Tm/Pm air with the warmest conditions to the south (again something we've had before) so in general other than some brief pattern changes it's still similar to what we have experienced for the last month and a half.

Stop teasin' us Tom!...looks like you've got a great cook there (most important part of choosing a wife) - never rule the magic 80f being broken again even at the beginning of October the way our climate is going, 1st October 2011 we had 29c/84f.

In your situation Tom you must take each day as it comes and just enjoy the weather (what ever it brings) and our glorious countryside with it...here's for many more years! P.S. No doubt the NHS in general did a fine job with regards to your brain haemorrhage but not so with my mother who passed away in 2015 due to poor aftercare, in fact the first time she had been in hospital in some 18 years - but that's the NHS for you good tales and less good ones. Going off topic a bit here, reached 25.1c here today.

Lovely day to add to the many of recent times, and looking at the models many more to come (no surprise really) - 25c out there at the moment!

Last time we had a winter month more than 1c below average for the CET was the infamous December 2010...that puts things into context.

Thanks for that...clears it up, yes May and June as I thought, the lower anomalies over Europe I still find mystifying and it seems so strange how the Atlantic low pressure systems consistently just steer away from the continent. Have to say August is little more how I believed both July and August to be as we have had largely consistent south westerly or westerly breezes (far more than recent summers) and if you looked at that anomaly for August you'd think it would have been unsettled - far from it in the south east. Neg NAO by and large due to the omnipresent High over Greenland but since end of June had little influence here... I suppose looking at those thumbnails they don't always tell the full picture, June maybe the more obvious one.

hhhmmm yes on those maps you have a point...what about the other 25 days?...why have we had in this part of the world had so many south westerly or westerly days in July/August and even this month? maybe other than the hot plume days. I'm finding it hard to accept other than May/June has had -NAO, of the last umpteen summers the Atlantic driven weather has been far more evident and only one of those maps (1st) is evident of high pressure over Europe which in my mind has been ever present for the majority of July to now...

Well I don't know how these indexes are being tracked, you telling me both July and August have been -NAO?...well unless I've been staring at different synoptics since then, we've constantly had low pressure to our north/north west and briefly times to our west in the hotter 'spikes' so how the hell is that indicative of -NAO? Lets get this right and this is basic meteorology here +NAO is the difference between heights (mb) to the south and low pressure to the north.

If those ECM seasonal maps verify it will be a continuation of what we've largely experienced over the summer and continue to experience, at some time in the next few months there will be a pattern change again (as we saw in May and particularly June) and I'm not talking for a few days...I'd be very surprised if we get a continuation a dominant +NAO over the winter if we don't see changes in the next 2 months (by and large).

Is there anything we can do to blast away high pressure from Europe?...the only crumb of comfort I can grab at currently is that the majority of this summer (since the end of June) we have experienced very little in the way of easterlies or on shore breezes (I live on the coast) in fact far less than previous summers and it has largely been a +NAO for this period and roughly looks to be the same for the foreseeable, if this pattern continues well into Autumn I'd be very surprised to see long spells into the winter...just a hunch no more no less, I did call last winter to be disappointing.

Models (JMA) the same thing most years for the upcoming winter...and that is cool/cold for NW Europe as we get closer to winter it climbs down, getting tedious I'm afraid.

Well done that's right...maybe a few decades ago there might have been something in it but now overriding global warming effects might have shelved many pattern matching analogues - sorry Gav!

Exactly...they don't mention that the last six winters have generally been mild or very mild, only 2017/18 and 2014/15 nearer to normal

I can't remember exactly either - something like that, to do with high pressure during October and foggy days (I think) and the correlation with colder more blocked winters which followed. Steve Murr was one I remember pushing this theory...

If I've read it correctly coldest winter since 2012/13 (not really saying a lot as recent winters have generally been mild) which was the seventh coldest in the last 30 years but some newspapers have chosen to sensationalise this by saying 'coldest in 30 years' as per the Express today...but does seem to come from a more professional source this time around (but hey ho look what a majority of the global models were saying for last winter).

Beautiful day, sun shining, temperature just right - no humidity and little wind, perfect to be outdoors. If only it could be like this until late October with just the odd rainfall which we do need.