Froze were the Days
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Posts posted by Froze were the Days
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Strikes me it's still an evolving picture (other than UKMO - steadfast)...Big bulbous vortex over Scandinavia with the coldest north easterlies well to the north and the Am airmass not digging southwards and the dastardly Azores low wanting to make it's presence felt.
As Bluearmy said picking up on a theme at D8/D9 might not be good...lots of wriggle room to go pear shaped for the majority of the UK (gem) or snowy nirvana for the south/central parts (GFS).
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One thing I've noticed over the last day is how the vortex over Scandinavia has become one large bulbous organised structure rather than smaller cells...it seems to want to stay now well to the north (on GFS/ECM) and on this run pushing westwards which in my mind keeps the real cold air away...and opens the door further south for low pressure.
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Glad some places are doing alright (looks like Kent/Sussex) always microscale events in the south east!
Just plain old polystyrene balls here illustrated by Dougal...
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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:
Control day 8 /9
If only that vortex over Scandi dropped 700/800 miles I'd be proper happy, just feel it's a tad to the north, still time for things to change at that range.
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8 minutes ago, moogyboobles said:
Happy with this!
I'll try again!
Burnham snow shield in full effect again going by that!...savour it! (We'll probably have to wait another 10 January's before the next fall).
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1 minute ago, Stabilo19 said:
Snowing on and off in central London
Hoping for 2 feet
Did you lose them in conflict?
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Just now, Methuselah said:
I think 'event' must be one of the most overused words in the English language. Especially on here!
Yes agreed!...I had a quiet Xmas just a few drinks and TV with just my GF, sister and aunt until the latter trumped after lunch - can I say that was a Xmas 'event'?
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21 minutes ago, Methuselah said:
This is the first winter snowfall I've seen since February 2021; all the others being in spring.
Are you officially calling it a 'snowfall'?...hell yeah! I'm calling it that as well...I'll put money this is more than what we get from the ongoing Greenland High saga which is continuing in the mod thread.
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Just now, Davegwarn said:
Coming down heavier in Chelmsford now!
Wow! ...that's a total white out!
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1 hour ago, Eagle Eye said:
Just because it won't live long in the memory, don't think that should discount it as an event. Especially w/much less of these streamer kind of events recently, it probably won't be much snow but still only seems to be happening once or twice a Winter now.
An 'event' - I suppose it is considering how poor January's have become, Kent looks to be doing best but very small pickings. Actually got precipitation that looks like snow now rather than masquerading as graupel or hail.
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3 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:
Not sure if you've checked the radar recently, but I'd still class it as an event!
Really!?!...won't live long in my memory, maybe an event for January as they've been so useless since 2013.
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9 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:
Sky News just said..
" We've already seen snow fall in kent today, but the potential for heavier snow later is a real threat "
Latest models ECM etc. show the snow threat further north...
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3 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:
Incoming!!
I'll look forward to more cold rain, hail and graupel...so much for the dry spell
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Old school synoptics right there!...just wish ECM would throw a few out at D10. A more positive model viewing day then yesterday.
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Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:
That would get really cold after day 10..a northeasterly setting up I think!
Closer to slider territory I would think...getting colder.
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All the action on the EC run is all to the north...improvements in the closer term at 144z but still behind GEM and UKMO at 168.
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Looks like the HP is slipping southwards by 168z...actually thought it would be better after the improvement at 144. Still an improvement on the 0z run so a step back to GEM/UKMO.
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1 minute ago, lassie23 said:
better run a marathon then
One of those ultra marathons I reckon - I'll be surprised if the ECM changes much...
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What a dreadful Winter it's been to now, dull, rain (flooding) occasionally windy and continually mild.
Today maxed out at 7c which is near normal for the time of year, it's been the coldest day here since 7th December which says it all!...has to be the worst pre-Xmas, Xmas period to New Year and into the New Year weather I can remember in my life time. The last El-Nino Winter 2013-14 was also dreadful...
Lets hope for something drier and hopefully whiter as no mentionable snow has fallen in my back yard in a January since 2013.
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2 hours ago, MAF said:
just seen this on beeb site
seems it might get cold soon..... thought that's what winter did
I'm afraid there are alerts for everything weather wise now days...what a mamby pamby lot the media are! Wouldn't bat an eye lid over this back in the 80's!
Just read your post Tom...all the best as well, here's to a rapid recovery!
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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:
20-25% success rate would make this an easy hobby
All guess work! I think I might have overplayed that...
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3 hours ago, Jason M said:
The good news though is that the day 12 charts that everybody will get depressed about today are just as big a waste of pixels as the day 12 charts people were ramping yesterday
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In other words don't believe anything GFS shows at a certain range!...no point of looking at it past 240z.
As I've mentioned before how little drama there'd be if you only followed the ECM and UKMO most winters but then again I know a number of posters get a buzz out of the chase whatever the outcome even though the success rate must probably be at 20/25% in such scenarios. Still all to play for and I for one would be surprised to see the Atlantic back in the next 2 weeks or so but without trying to sound like the new Ian Brown we are now in the 'large teapot so who knows!.
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9 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:
Isn’t this just typical of the GFS though.
shows you filth one day then goes AWOL to suddenly showing the filth again.its either picked up a new signal or its going off on one.not to be discounted of course,but I think its been barking up the wrong tree for the last few runs.
we will see.
I've been saying it for years...in possible northern blocking scenario's it goes from one extreme (47/63 white out det runs) to completely backing down, at a certain range it's useless only occasionally does it pick out trends.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Back to the SSW again? ever since the beginning of December...that certainly waxes and wanes.