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Everything posted by Froze were the Days
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blizzard81 Last time that happened other than the induced SSW of 2018 was back in Feb 2012 and even then the real cold only got to the east of London and a stalled front from the Atlantic dumped a bit, I think we're really clutching at straws and even then we'd probably get a short wave develop over the Norwegian Sea or something which usually crops up to put the Siberian Express on the buffers.
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The GFS 12z det run is ridiculous...if that was anything close to the mark we could be staring down the face of the mildest February. Little or no action happening on the near continent at all (as per in the summer)...half the problem when we need to see lows spill eastwards rather than fill to act as a trigger to get some westwards retrogression of what cold there is.
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Matty88 Pretty much the same in 2020/21 which was one of the 'better' winters of recent years...northern and central areas had snow on a couple of occasions (particularly around the New Year period if memory serves me right). In this neck of the woods very little with marginal events an easterly in early January that wasn't cold enough and eventually in some parts of coastal Essex and Suffolk in February cold enough air with low dew points arrived but even that with snowfall was on a smallish scale. Certainly feels like snow events of recent times are becoming more of a north/south divide.
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snowblind As I said back before the January 'cold spell' I purchased some pat Jennings gloves just for such occasions, 1:1 scale as he had such giant hands no barbie dolls, action man/men or lego are going to slip through those bad boys...I've been proved quite astute in doing so as they're being flung everywhere, either that or the MAD thread has really become that predictable.
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
Froze were the Days replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
As it has done from the 1st week of December that was arguably the coldest snap we had in the south east although one or two hard frosts in mid-January and some cold days but this really is nothing untoward. It appears it will be another winter that looks far better from a model watching perspective 'will it won't it' without nothing largely happening (okay, towards the north and higher elevated areas and briefly parts of Kent/Sussex has seen some snow) but waiting here to actually see some snow falling...if so the third winter running. Even in mild winters gone by you experience snow falling or the briefest of accumulations i.e. 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007...but other than the SSW of feb 2018 and feb 2021 it really has been slim pickings in this neck of the woods for the last decade. -
northwestsnow Don't watch it...usually it's the model that bangs on the cold drum with some OTT runs but it doesn't want to know this time. It keeps trying to deliver in deep FI but will probably come to fruition eventually once we get into March.
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Amazing just how consistent the ECM det runs have been over the last few days...you can almost guarantee out to D10 will come to fruition, shame we can't say that about more blocked -NAO conditions, lucky to feel confident of anything over 5 days! If you're a coldie it looks pretty bleak...but that's looked the way since the breakdown in my opinion.
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Agree!...and you are confident 100 days of no cold in sight As you say slim pickings indeed, in fact no pickings here for yet another January - no notable snowfall here since 2013 which is ridiculous and no doubt for many southerners as well. One thing that did surprise me with Scandinavia so cold for an extended period why no surface high pressure developed and always seemed to have a vortex/troughs/low pressure there, 80% or so time that's not good if your after snow in southern England. Hope I'm wrong but I'm looking too where we might get another cold episode...maybe a wait until March again as we haven't had a cold start to one since the infamous SSW March 2018.
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My gut feeling is in terms of cold we can write this winter off, yes a bit early days but looking at the ECM the Atlantic is more fired up than it has been all winter. Historically of recent winters after a cold/chilly spell in January and the synoptics become more +NAO thereafter there's no way back into February, not counting out cooler spells with Pm incursions but that's nothing out of the ordinary. Happy to be proved wrong...but that's where my money would lay.
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A tad nippy the last few nights as shown by my outside dripping tap... Nice to get these cold crisp sunny days with frosts but doesn't cut it if there's no snow (we've had a few episodes like this over the last few years)...it's like a Hawaiian pizza without the pineapple, a dartboard without a bullseye and the Chuckle brothers without Barry.