Froze were the Days

I don't think I've had a dry day here since before Xmas...seem to get at least a passing shower on the more settled days, really garbage weather but not unwholly surprising. Maybe we can thanks our lucky stars we've even had a cold spell considering what the last year or so has been like!

If I had a pound for every shortwave that develops in the wake of a cold air mass near Greenland...always seems to be something developing in these increasingly warm seas.

Although there is potential towards FI it always seems we're in a 'lose lose' situation, 12z plays ball upstream with some amplification and some WAA but then there is too much action going on in the Barents Sea location and the real cold air over Scandinavia/West Russia is shunted too far south, obviously due to warming seas. Sorry for talking in layman's terms here but that's how I see the current situation...always finding a piece of the jigsaw not fitting.

Yes we've all been there in our youth trying to lose the paleness to any colour from the first drop of summer warmth...hope all goes smoothly!

All the best...hopefully not too serious? as for the weather, rain rain go away come back another day (mainly May-September) when we see none of it!

I think if we played 'down a shot' every time a Norwegian coast short wave popped up in the GFS/ECM det runs we'll all be plastered! Certainly a very annoying feature that is becoming evermore regular in the last few years...

See the ever present limpet short wave low close to the Norwegian coast is becoming a feature too when ever we get some sort of Scandi High, interesting also how the isobars seem to follow the contour of the coast rather than go westwards (probably due to the large difference in temps from land to sea) as per 222z on tonight's ECM op run...thoroughly depressing.

Yes! what ever happened to the fabled high pressure system which was meant to be sitting near to the UK on a number of seasonal forecasts for this Winter from various countries?, I remember DWD (German model) which usually isn't far off the mark going for HP domination...

Unfortunately seems like we're going back to the long wave pattern we were in pre early December, what cold air there is is heading into mid-north Atlantic and LP's heading north or north east to our west and Europe warm/mild.

Largely the case I'm afraid when it comes to snow and the UK, amazing how small this Island is and the variations we get from one location to another, we only seem to be singing from a similar hymn sheet (by and large when it comes to snowfall) when we get a major SSW.

Snap!...where as areas just inland in Essex got some, I've also got a distinct feeling this December cold spell will be the highlight of the winter as well, teleconnections have been backing this up though I don't put much faith in these anymore. Januaries of almost the last decade have been atrocious in these neck of the woods and others if you live towards the south, 2013 the last 'reasonable' one...could well be staring down the barrel of another poor one.

Well at least I won't have the disappointment of seeing the snow disappear with the onset of milder weather...had zilch out here on the coast unlike other areas, the pond is a bit frozen up but already above 3c here which is high as it's been for the last week or so... My gut feeling says this will be the highlight of this winter, the mild/warm 2022 was always going to 'pop' but will it be a case of now carrying on as per.

Totally agree...how does this manage it!?! When was the det closer to the mean at D9/10? I'm sceptical when the ecm det keeps running mild outliers (usually turns out that way) but saying that this model has been a bit all over the place the last few weeks.

Incredibly cold mid-December day out there, - my thermometer currently showing -0.2c...I'm sure if there was some precip about the 'Riviera' would find a way of snatching rain rather than anything else from such a cold day.

I see the FI trends over the last day for GFS (12+ days away) and ECM (9/10 days) are milder...with both showing low pressure close to the country largely to our north west, veering away from a more blocked pattern with amplification becoming less so. Can't take FI to seriously particularly with the GFS but not a good sign IMO.

Not so good in FI though...and that looks like a mild post Xmas, but glad GFS isn't getting consistent with it's Fantasy 'real' cold from the east as per the 0z and 6z runs. Experience has told me not to get carried away with this model in FI when it comes to consistency only to be dropped like the proverbial hot potato into the foreseeable! About time we had a real cold New Year! Januarys of the last decade have been woeful down here in the south.

Well if you read his post I'm taking it he's 'disappointed' for the political stance of GB News and Jon Hammond presenting on there, what other reason would he be disappointed about?...and as I pointed out I had my post removed instantly which wasn't biased in any point about the 78/79 winter and the political nature of it.

Nothing against Northwestsnow but shouldn't that post be removed? (About Hammond and GB News)...I had a post removed straight away because I mentioned a certain political winter in 1978/79 and this could be this millenniums version. Onto the weather...and yes could be just a mild blip by this weekend before things turn colder again before Xmas but does worry me when GFS starts getting consistent with some of it's medium to FI output, seen it before only to drop it in the foreseeable.

Seriously after my post above how the hell did that happen!?!...maybe that's the difference between now and the 80's with SST's and other issues.

If we get anything near that in 12 days or so's time...it really would be game on...lots of amplification in the Atlantic so no worries there from depressions and an Arctic High waiting in the wings to the north east, that really is an 80's style synopsis right there, shame it's in FI rather than 7 days.

Absolutely zilch out here on the Essex Riviera...travelled inland today for a health check up at Baddow and went the rural route, South Woodham had a dusting but as I hit the Hanningfield's quite a sweet spot with 1-2 inches. Have to say the BBC graphics for once not too far off the mark! Some nice pictures/time lapses...congrats to those who got the best December dose since 2010, other than the UKMO looks like this cold spell will be over come the weekend.

How I've missed the rain over the last week or so...but no ordinary rain, it's the cold variety - yuck! as per January 2021.

ECM 0z's (milder by next weekend) v 12z's (cold remaining with possible slider)...of the last 2 days, which one will win out? Overall NH profile looks a lot different and favourable to recent years maybe bar 20/21.

This 'cold' spell has already beaten in this neck of the woods anything the infamous 2018/19 winter offered in terms of persistent frost and maximum daily temperatures - the one where MetO kept stating wintry conditions and northern blocking but kept delaying it and delaying until we had a run of a few days at the back end of January with temps near 4c, well today hasn't got much above 2c and there's still frost still on our northern front facing lawn. Long may it continue...feels seasonal out there, maybe a dusting of the white stuff in the early hours?

2005 was another close shout with light snow in the south east on the 27th I believe, for some reason or another the Xmas spell (24th - 26th) seems to miss out (certainly in the south)...I'd be surprised if this present cold period lasts through the Xmas period.