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Froze were the Days

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Everything posted by Froze were the Days

  1. After the 14th basically...so no change really.
  2. Here we go something to get the juices flowing from Jan 1987 from one of the lanes near Burnham
  3. Happy New Year all! Right to the here and now and yet another mildish end to the old year and start of the new one!! - seems to be annually mild at this time. Here are the maxes and mins from where I live for New Years Eve and New Years Day of recent years: 2009/10: 31st 4.2, -1.2 1st 3.1, -1.8 2010/11: 31st 6.0, 4.9 1st 6.8, 3.3 2011/12: 31st 12.4, 8.7 1st 12.3, 8.5 2012/13: 31st 11.4, 8.9 1st 8.9, 8.9 2013/14: 31st 9.6, 5.5 1st 10.5, 6.1 2014/15: 31st 6.2, -0.7 1st 11.3, 4.5 2015/16: 31st 10.5, 6.5 1st: 8.2, 1.9 2016/17: 31st 8.0, 4.8 1st 9.0, 4.5 2017/18: 31st 12.9, 7.9 1st 7.0, 5.2 2018/19: 31st 10.0, 8.5 Very few frosts here in my local and no doubt others across the area - sorry for all the stats with the banging heads at the moment!
  4. Happy New Year Tom and best of health and everybody else on NW and let's hope Sammy snowman has lots to look forward to! cheers FWTD (Tim)
  5. Difficult one to call...the signs are there with the global models and SSW, but for a month long/longish cool/cold/very cold spell would be pushing it. So I'm expecting some cold but how long it last's is the question - 4.2c for me
  6. Please don't curse it, aware of your December LRF with a wintery start and some noteworthy cold after Xmas!...couldn't have been more the opposite in all reality! Slightly better ecm certainly an improvement on this morning, maybe some room for further improvement around day 8?
  7. Well certainly 'potential' there (please don't shoot me)...I believe that's why there's so many posts
  8. I have little faith in GFS full stop...occasionally picks out trends in FI just commenting on what would happen on that brief excursion with HP to our north west on that 06z, nothing more nothing less.
  9. 216z seems a bit flatter than the 0z (I know we should be comparing like to like) but feel like we're getting nowhere quick with the ops...
  10. But why the impatience?...you can't go against all the signals (as you told me a while back) , all good things come to those who wait...and that wait will probably go on until a few days in March!
  11. Well I said he might possibly be correct but I'll stand by my post as I've read some strat posts that say we're in a very 'tentative' phase of the down welling affecting the trop but Chris has largely been using the GFS which has been unfavourable though ECM still shows weakening of zonal winds at 60N in the next week or so...
  12. Please no more about Chris Fawkes...we know his thoughts about this winter (he might be right) but he's certainly tweeting every image he can which backs up his thoughts and showing lack of propagation of the down welling...we seem to be hearing more from him than any other Meteorologist or Strat person currently and I don't believe he's one 'hunting' for cold.
  13. Not a chance from that...heights remain over Spain/SW Europe, looks good at 144 - 198 but the fly in the ointment is still that main low which doesn't advect northwards (near Greenland) followed by the feature developing from near the Azores and then 'balloons' ...another near miss on the cards or the building blocks?
  14. Looks like an old fashion toppler...but better than anything over the last few weeks!
  15. Read the article from Simon Lee about generally 2 types of SSW's on the Start thread, this one appears different to Feb 2018 and some models are struggling with the downward propagation into the trop...but as he mentions this SSW is in a tentative stage currently so we might still get lucky
  16. Yep! I mentioned that the other day...we get so few days with fairly persisting frosts it's untrue. Xmas morning so far this late Autumn/Winter has been the highlight with minima just below freezing and the first slight ice I've seen on puddles, this was a regular feature even in Novembers back in the mid 90's and further back, all we seem to get now days is dull, damp/wet interspersed with brighter conditions and largely mild.
  17. Can't beat a beat of morribund - though have to completely disagree with 'TV Quick' - not as bad as December 2015 which was horribly mild but this is almost it's smaller brother! A. Partridge
  18. Cause the good ol' MetO 30 dayer forecast says from 'mid-month' (as if they've been that accurate this late Autumn/Winter).
  19. Injury time winner...will lightning strike twice if we're struggling come February? I doubt it.
  20. The winter of the 3 P's ..Potential, Patience and Pee'd off Ecm showed some potential yesterday and numerous times post day 10 earlier this month ...have we got anywhere?...answer no. Makes me smirk now the date 15th January is etched in everybody's heads, I wonder how realistically it will be that we'll get cold conditions around that date?
  21. Seriously nothing now I'd like to see more than to see that Atlantic absolutely do one...GFS now spewing out Xmas dinner left overs of chewed sprouts and regurgitated turkey. The model obviously doesn't believe in a season for all men!
  22. To be honest watching the GFS currently is really starting to bore me - next!
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