Froze were the Days

Utter rubbish here...rain, rain, rain...if this is all the SSW can do then it can do one, then again I expected little else! 2c and steady rain on the Riviera.

Currently wearing my 'not in the least surprised face' as cold rain continues to fall (again)...lost count how many times over the last few Winters news headlines about snow hitting the UK but diddly squat out the window! Always amazes me how we either get marginal situations or only certain areas are effected...particularly when you look how small the UK is!

7c here...what's all the commotion about? roll on Spring.

Nice and balmy 8.5c here on the Riviera and yet another bland day to add to the many of the last 6 weeks or so...but 4 degrees up on yesterday. Looking at the prospective precip type charts for the next few days haven't seen one where I live with snow on the coast! but that's the way of things now days. I'll look forward to further cold rain...

That's the thing that caught my eye considering the OTT det runs the GFS was throwing out a week back or so...the south just gets into -5c thermal line but that's about it and main wedge of really cold air to the north of Scotland and only the -5c line over most of the UK. GFS has been pretty awful this Winter (as well as others)...we would have been knee deep in the white stuff at times if only 50% of those runs had verified over the last few months, problem is the GFS sniffs out a pattern change and goes completely overboard with it and eventually comes back closer to 0z with it's tail between it's legs.

Looking more and more likely that this convoluted SSW and all the posts/charts/ensembles that goes with it for next week anyway is looking like a 2 day maybe 3 day cold spell and probably dry before some rain and maybe a bit of sleet and wet snow at first moves through - certainly if you live in the south. Shouldn't really be surprised...

All a bit of a polava still in the MAD thread....I thought this major SSW would bring more dynamic synoptics than what we're currently seeing. The northly flow in these parts look cold but not that cold (certainly not on a scale anywhere near 2018) and for us to receive the white stuff looks like we'll have to watch out for a southerly tracking low going through the Channel which currently the ECM does want to know about. Personally my bets will be on a wet period in the next week or so rather than white.

Not disagreeing that the cold is not arriving from the north (I think that's never been an argument)...it does 'feel' from the modelling a few days ago probability says it will be a fairly short live affair and certainly not as dynamic pushing southwards, just don't get carried away with the GFS.

All the 'flashy' snowy charts again coming from the GFS...personally I'd be very wary of this, 'once bitten twice shy' come s to mind (certainly this Winter) with that model. ECM 2 consecutive det runs see the low further north...and I'd also be wary of this if you're a coldie considering the flop SSW of 2019 which against all background signals the euros had milder conditions pushing in by D9/10 on the det runs which nobody believed would happen considering the ensembles/mean was pointing to something opposite. Wouldn't at all be surprised after such a long dry spell to see a very wet period in the next week or so...

Another one?...the first one hasn't amounted to much, we were meant to be seeing the effects around about 2nd/3rd initially, signs not looking good for any length of cold which is not surprising, even the 2018 event although a short sharp affair managed to last 5 days or so.

Say that at your peril with the GFS track record this Winter...if we had half the runs that model knocked out at a certain range we would slowly become bored of snow (well some wouldn't) . All the drama in general is following that.

Agree!...I recorded late Autumn/Winter weather for years (back to 83/84) but stopped a couple of Winters back due to the blandness of days and comparatively little variation and lack of frosts/snow days - a lot of mid-level latitude blocking is partly to blame and in summer as we know can lock in the heat from Europe. Good to see you back posting!

Have to agree with that!...2 days of chilly weather and frosts the rest either cloudy the odd bit of drizzle as per the last 3 days or some sunny days but Mild and all a bit bland.

In another 4 days time meteorologically speaking Winter will be over have to say getting a bit tired of this SSW and proposed developments...ECM is still at the D10 potential, GFS swaying between good runs and worse runs (not that I take any notice of it). Roll on Spring warmth.

Have to be honest not sure I buy too much into teleconnections as well now days...

What's the solar state for winter 2023/24?

Even that is not fool proof Matt...in 2019 with the backing of ensembles/means/MetO updates a couple of consecutive day 9/10 ECM opposing det runs put a spanner in the works for the projected cold, I should know I mentioned it against the scowl on here from a few posters - the rest was NW history!

Repeated attempts until the UK is successful...near to April! who wants that? GFS knowing our luck will be a trend setter on this one.

2012/13 the last winter which was colder than the 1961-90 series mean...says it all!

Absolutely no mention on here of how mild it is out there! an hour ago I recorded 16c....obviously everybody spellbound by this flippin' SSW

lassie23...it really is getting tiring in there (only read a few posts from respected members). They're really getting themselves worked up into a palava over something weeks away if at all

Has the SSW officially landed yet?...MAD thread scouring every bit of data and every hour of the models to fit in with their mindset, little appearing as of yet. March it is according to some...to late for me.

Still diddly squat in the dets at the moment...even the good ol' GFS garden path model not showing nowt, far too early the cries particularly from BFTP going for a very cold March

From March March: lots of moaning due to it being fairly cold then rapidly turning very mild. April: Bone dry season setting in, discussions about a possible hose pipe ban in the Summer. May: Lack of any decent convectivity, feeling like early Summer at times. June: The odd rainy day causing the 'warmies' on the site to go into meltdown...then followed by the usual heatwave. July: Scorchio! frequent rain dances by the south eastern population. August: Increasing cloud cover and humidity causing the 'warmies' to get upset...maybe the odd days rain but not enough to stop the dancing. September: Bland but still dry and warmer than average. October: Bland, warm to the south east. Still dancing. November: No frosts or Wintryness, mild and damp. December: Dull, windy mild rainy days and ridiculous talk about a white Xmas (again) but Keep you're eye open for a frost or two. Our climate in a nutshell.

Chortle! all that and we find the affects/projections (possibly) at the end of the month beginning of March are nowt!