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Froze were the Days

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Everything posted by Froze were the Days

  1. Well yes somewhat of a pattern change but dramatic?...not something we haven't experienced before this summer, and going by the ECM back to the Atlantic sometime next week though again looks like low pressure systems will be largely well to the north of the UK and probably a spell of breezy Tm/Pm air with the warmest conditions to the south (again something we've had before) so in general other than some brief pattern changes it's still similar to what we have experienced for the last month and a half.
  2. Stop teasin' us Tom!...looks like you've got a great cook there (most important part of choosing a wife) - never rule the magic 80f being broken again even at the beginning of October the way our climate is going, 1st October 2011 we had 29c/84f.
  3. In your situation Tom you must take each day as it comes and just enjoy the weather (what ever it brings) and our glorious countryside with it...here's for many more years! P.S. No doubt the NHS in general did a fine job with regards to your brain haemorrhage but not so with my mother who passed away in 2015 due to poor aftercare, in fact the first time she had been in hospital in some 18 years - but that's the NHS for you good tales and less good ones. Going off topic a bit here, reached 25.1c here today.
  4. Lovely day to add to the many of recent times, and looking at the models many more to come (no surprise really) - 25c out there at the moment!
  5. Last time we had a winter month more than 1c below average for the CET was the infamous December 2010...that puts things into context.
  6. Thanks for that...clears it up, yes May and June as I thought, the lower anomalies over Europe I still find mystifying and it seems so strange how the Atlantic low pressure systems consistently just steer away from the continent. Have to say August is little more how I believed both July and August to be as we have had largely consistent south westerly or westerly breezes (far more than recent summers) and if you looked at that anomaly for August you'd think it would have been unsettled - far from it in the south east. Neg NAO by and large due to the omnipresent High over Greenland but since end of June had little influence here... I suppose looking at those thumbnails they don't always tell the full picture, June maybe the more obvious one.
  7. hhhmmm yes on those maps you have a point...what about the other 25 days?...why have we had in this part of the world had so many south westerly or westerly days in July/August and even this month? maybe other than the hot plume days. I'm finding it hard to accept other than May/June has had -NAO, of the last umpteen summers the Atlantic driven weather has been far more evident and only one of those maps (1st) is evident of high pressure over Europe which in my mind has been ever present for the majority of July to now...
  8. Well I don't know how these indexes are being tracked, you telling me both July and August have been -NAO?...well unless I've been staring at different synoptics since then, we've constantly had low pressure to our north/north west and briefly times to our west in the hotter 'spikes' so how the hell is that indicative of -NAO? Lets get this right and this is basic meteorology here +NAO is the difference between heights (mb) to the south and low pressure to the north.
  9. If those ECM seasonal maps verify it will be a continuation of what we've largely experienced over the summer and continue to experience, at some time in the next few months there will be a pattern change again (as we saw in May and particularly June) and I'm not talking for a few days...I'd be very surprised if we get a continuation a dominant +NAO over the winter if we don't see changes in the next 2 months (by and large).
  10. Is there anything we can do to blast away high pressure from Europe?...the only crumb of comfort I can grab at currently is that the majority of this summer (since the end of June) we have experienced very little in the way of easterlies or on shore breezes (I live on the coast) in fact far less than previous summers and it has largely been a +NAO for this period and roughly looks to be the same for the foreseeable, if this pattern continues well into Autumn I'd be very surprised to see long spells into the winter...just a hunch no more no less, I did call last winter to be disappointing.
  11. Models (JMA) the same thing most years for the upcoming winter...and that is cool/cold for NW Europe as we get closer to winter it climbs down, getting tedious I'm afraid.
  12. Well done that's right...maybe a few decades ago there might have been something in it but now overriding global warming effects might have shelved many pattern matching analogues - sorry Gav!
  13. Exactly...they don't mention that the last six winters have generally been mild or very mild, only 2017/18 and 2014/15 nearer to normal
  14. I can't remember exactly either - something like that, to do with high pressure during October and foggy days (I think) and the correlation with colder more blocked winters which followed. Steve Murr was one I remember pushing this theory...
  15. If I've read it correctly coldest winter since 2012/13 (not really saying a lot as recent winters have generally been mild) which was the seventh coldest in the last 30 years but some newspapers have chosen to sensationalise this by saying 'coldest in 30 years' as per the Express today...but does seem to come from a more professional source this time around (but hey ho look what a majority of the global models were saying for last winter).
  16. Beautiful day, sun shining, temperature just right - no humidity and little wind, perfect to be outdoors. If only it could be like this until late October with just the odd rainfall which we do need.
  17. Pear tree seems to have plenty of fruit just the apple tree...
  18. Really poor for cooking apples on my tree this year...what's going on or has gone on to cause this?
  19. and hopefully cooling that continent off somewhat if we can get that jet going somewhat on a NW/SE position
  20. Since the last week of June better than average here...mainly sunny (dry spells) and warmer than average with some briefer unsettled breezy interludes 6.5/10
  21. Thanks @Blessed Weather as thought this area in Essex particularly dry, I worked out we had probably less than 33% rainfall and again not surprising the warmest conditions generally to the east of London (an anomaly conducive to westerly Tm conditions). Amazing when you look at the maps on the opening page supplied by Malcolm how consistent the range of the driest and warmest conditions have been since 2016 with slight variations from year to year...
  22. Just over 6 mm here this morning, probably the biggest rainfall total in one day for sometime.
  23. and not for the first time this summer when somewhat cooler conditions were forecast...on Saturday BBC website had highs of 19c and 20c for Monday/Tuesday here but in reality we've had 21.6c and 23.6c... How the hell we'll get another substantially cooler that average month at this rate is beyond me, but it will probably come when we least expect it!
  24. I pay no attention anymore to the GFS...haven't viewed it all spring and summer.
  25. Been the story of the last month and a bit in my region @Blessed, we had some sporadic rainfall around mid-month in August but each time never more than 4 or 5mm, the graphics do look encouraging for tomorrow to liven up the parched landscape...I'll guess at around 5mm, not a lot but welcome.
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