gaia rules

Good bit of eye candy ...to watch that polar high develop ...pull south into russia, build and build and then be squeezed by the atlantic juggernaut (remove the labels press animation rotate to polar view and sit back and enjoy!) https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_3d.php?lat=80.25&lon=79&ech=3&zoom=6&mode=1

Both ECMWF and GFS have struggled to forecast the low on Thursday. GFS blew it up as we expected by ECMWF doesnt cover itself with Glory either and still 3 days to go. Here are the last few runs on both to compare.

UKMO HD brings that second low further north so although in FI still worth watching seeing to see if this gathers traction

Hi Tilly yes you are absolutely right and I was being a bit gung ho with this weekend's cold looking to become fairly established in the GFS 18Z last night! We just need the cold snap to be short lived (which is a stronger possibility with todays runs as the Iceland high has receded south a tad ) and continuous SW flow in December to push get that 2.04 required.

"The highest annual mean CET ever recorded was 11.15, which is 1.68 higher than normal. To beat this record the anomaly must be higher than 2.04 for the remainder of this year." No chance now! CET is sliding down and down

I think ECMWF is leading its younger brother GFS astray. Next few runs will soon sort this out.

Has France closed its borders to snow?

You can see the difference between the 12Z GFS and 18Z GFS digging in much colder air behind low 2 with ECMWF keeping south in the cold for longer but less cold air behind shallower low

Your OK in teh welsh valleys The models have finally got to grips with the major snowfall between France and Inverness sometime in the next 10 days.

Yes not a flake or drop to be found in these easterlies

The humidity therefore night temperatures will be important in predicting impact on health. I set up the Heat Health warnings when I worked as health lead at the Met Office after the 2003 European Heat wave and it was the night-time temperatures that mattered more. In France those living above the high floors of tower blocks who died as temperatures cooled from the ground up. The higher humidity meant that there were high min temps. So far the predicted humidity next weekend is very low so although the temperatures are frighteningly high if the humidity stays low and there are no more than 2 nights in a row with minima of 22 then it may not be so catastrophic on health.

38.6 Heathrow Sunday 17th July

wow that's a central pressure of 912mb if this ever happens but at 210hrs its well into FI

The jet is off to the Med for Christmas

If ECM is on the right track for Sunday then the storm surge team at Met Office will be waking up as that low crosses east coast bang on a spring tide

While we wait for 18z could someone explain the factors required in N Hemisphere to keep the mid Atlantic block in place from Feb 6th as opposed to it toppling over us again?

I personally look forward to next week's weather. A possible record breaking low in mid Atlantic possibly below 920mb (which is the weather telling us that the NAO is not at all dead from SSW) and then secondary lows racing in causing severe gales in any area. The winter is far from finished and the word Blizzard could still be returning to this forum anytime after mid Feb because we simply don't know!

Could that monster low forecast by ECMWF GFS and UKMO break any records? With my glasses i make that a central pressure of 920mb!

New NEA for 0600hrs a definite upgrade and NEA for 1200hrs Monday ...snow line ever so slightly westward

Ed Ed a very helpful post.However I dont quite follow your logic that GEM is better because Canada should know its own weather better. My understanding is that all models use the same global data and so it is a level playing field. It is also has to be a global forecast although each country chooses to increase the resolution over their patch. GEM therefore just have a better model this week. There is a forum topic of How the Models Compare at Keep posting!

I'm not so convinced of their accuracy even at 72 hours. When it comes to modelling snow I wouldn't trust any forecast beyond 36 hours particularly for Monday/Tuesday event that is changing with each run and Ian F is now thinking it will all shift west.

Saturday's snow (or no snow) event is In range of the NAE....together with the GFS pushing the low further south its not looking great for snow lovers.

I agree that this is a really good update. Like Thunderman I would be very nervous working at the Met Office regarding the possible snow this Saturday! If the rain is very heavy and there is a significant cold undercut surely that boundary between rain and snow is still totally uncertain and could be anywhere!

Just looked at the T144, T120 and T96 from the GFS all for Sat 12:00 pm. Each run shows the progressive drop in pressure over the whole of Northern Europe and rise in pressure over Iceland. The scandi high stays pretty much the same. The low to our SW in particular deepens and carrys more energy with each run so could become more nasty.

I live just south of Oxford and on 19 20 21 Jan the netweather forecast is for a dewpoint of -1.4 winds of 53mph and 33cm snow.....all dreams of course...but nice ones!