Sainsbo
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Posts posted by Sainsbo
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I could be wrong, but I'd think that global models like the UKMO will have some large biases in surface temperature in circumstances where you have a high airmass temperature but some cloud around. Model resolution likely isn't high enough to resolve many of the breaks in the cloud, and you'll end up with a more uniform layer of cloud being modelled than we would see in reality.
With 20C+ 850hPa temperatures and strong solar heating, the temperature would respond very quickly in cloud breaks, and this is probably isn't going to be captured in the model.
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Despite the new red warning for the SE, the larger amber warning is still in the highest category of the matrix for severity. As we get to T0 the event likelihood has to increase, so this warning will surely need to change to either a lower 'severity' amber in the matrix, or further red warnings.
Wind already picking up here in Swindon, especially in the last 15 minutes.
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The ensemble spread for inland areas in the south is currently ~65-80 mph. Red warnings are reserved for events that are all but certain. When 65mph (which would not warrant a red) is still within the realm of uncertainty, it's pretty understandable they haven't bumped it up IMO. The amber warning is as high as it can go on severity. I guess they just need to see what inland gust values the models converge to later today.
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Possibly some further evidence of a sting jet on the AROME 0z: Vertical cross section shows air from ~800hPa descending to the surface collocated with the wind maxima.
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Possibly an even stronger storm on the 12z UKMO - large swathe of 80-85mph+ gusts inland. Will be interesting to see how the evolution differs to the GFS which seems have tempered the strongest gusts.
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4 minutes ago, kold weather said:
A Dudley level storm normally hits Scotland/north every season, possibly a couple of times a season in more active years. Its nothing too out of the ordinary, though of course it does merit warnings clearly.
Eunice as it is *currently* modelled is significantly more unusual. When your talking of possible 70-80mph gusts into densely populated areas that get those sorts of winds every 5-10 years or so, thats very media worthy and people do need to be given quite obvious media warnings, particularly given the area is just not used to those sorts of winds as you say.
Anyway still quite a few runs to go on the models and small shifts will make significant differences in terms of strength and location of strongest winds.
Every 5-10 years might even be underselling it a little bit. For many this is likely to be the worst storm since Burns' Day 1990.
This is the maximum February 10m wind gusts across the UK since 1950 according to the ERA5 reanalysis. It may be a slight underestimation compared to observations because of the resolution, but not a massive underestimation. A lot of southern England have not seen winds as high as currently being modelled (in February at least).
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Honestly I'm not surprised to see the Met Office wait until today to give an amber. A number of the GFS ensemble members didn't even have a closed low over the UK on Friday until very recently. There's always a trade off to be made between giving the public suitable warning, and uncertainty, and the Met Office can't really afford to get it wrong.
I do wonder what areas will get a red warning tomorrow (providing no change in the output). Large swathes of inland area have the potential to see 80mph gusts. In the densely populated south, maybe a red warning won't be reserved for just the 90/100mph gusts along coastal areas? Guess we'll find out.
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Not a forecast you see every day - For the next 3 days, starting from tomorrow, the Met Office forecast daily maxima at Heathrow is within 2C of the all time temperature record.
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Met Office forecast for Reading was 27C at 12:00 - Currently it's 31.0C at the University observatory. Could push 35C.
Should note though that BBC had Reading at 30C at 12:00 and only predict a high of 34C. Interesting to see the differences in how the heat builds.
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If the 03z UKV verifies around the Reading area then the July record of 35.3 is likely to go on Thursday, maybe even the all time record of 36.4C. Only 18C currently - Think I better try and cool the house down whilst I still can!
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36.9C, Kew Gardens, Thursday.
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Friday 28th, 31.1C, Salisbury.
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Swindon has been hammered over the past few hours and no sign of it letting up just yet. Already ~15cm of snow with potentially another couple to go on top of that.
Not bad, given a Met Office yellow warning for 1-3cm with 5-10cm locally on higher ground.
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Unless the precip dies out as it goes inland it looks like we could get a good few cm's in Reading this evening. Very light snow here at the moment, as it has been all afternoon.
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Most of the models had the swing north happening sometime between 1500 and 1600, though given the eastward extent of the precip compared to some of the models it would probably need to make the turn slightly earlier if the negligible snow depths are to verify. Next hour should tell us a lot!
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Even the AROME with it's very high resolution is doing a poor job at representing areas of precip compared to what we can see on the radar. Models are now pretty useless, just need to watch and see if the precip starts moving more northerly as modelled, or if it continues to have an eastwards component for a little while longer.
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Looks like the amber warning zone has been moved further west if anything
Not necessarily a downgrade, just an increase in certainty regarding that heaviest snowfall. I'm sure a few could still get lucky throughout the day and evening, even if the worst of it will almost certainly be in the west.
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ARPEGE takes heavier snowfall much further east on the 18z. A ridiculous amount of uncertainty given we're at 24 hours.
It's going to come down to radar watching and now casting as usual it seems.
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10 minutes ago, mpkio2 said:
18z HIRLAM hasn't updated yet on Meteciel. Can you post a link, please?
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18z HIRLAM looks to have corrected westwards, still somewhat better for the home counties than the WRF but a downgrade in terms of snow potential for sure.
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Just now, kold weather said:
Really interesting as that is very similar to something I just noted,the steering currents are more ENE than the models were expecting at this time, suggesting the low maybe evolving slightly differently than planned at this stage.
Pray HIRLAM is right, 17cms here!
ARPEGE is also pretty similar to the HIRLAM for the home counties. I'm sure MetO will review their warnings for the event tonight/tomorrow morning, will be interesting to see if there's any extension of the amber warning eastwards.
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Thought I'd pop this in here..
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I guess the BBC/MetO aren't too concerned with the ARPEGE and HIRLAM showing heavy precip moving further east given the 2-5cm on the graphic. Either way a great forecast and looks like some people will be very happy come Friday morning. It's interesting to note the discrepancies though:
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Looks like the HIRLAM and ARPEGE (12z and 00z respectively) are keen to give a good covering for central southern areas along with areas further SW, whereas the GFS/NMM and ICON (12z's) aren't interested at all. We're only 30 hours away and the snow depth ranges for central south are anywhere from about 1 to 15cm!
Looks like the ARPEGE 12z is sticking to it's guns. Will be interesting to see when it gets in range of the AROME.
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Not necessarily a downgrade, just an increase in certainty regarding that heaviest snowfall. I'm sure a few could still get lucky throughout the day and evening, even if the worst of it will almost certainly be in the west.
Summer 2022 Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Temperature is still rising here - 34.3C at the closest official Met Office site (Lyneham). Only 0.6C away from the all time site record. Not bad for 6PM!