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Mammatus

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About Mammatus

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    When snow falls, nature listens.....

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    Male
  • Location
    Haverhill Suffolk UK
  • Interests
    Meteorology Astronomy Paranormal Photography Poetry Art
  • Weather Preferences
    Thunderstorms, Squall Lines, Storm Force Winds & Extreme Weather!

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  1. Oh well, I'm going to have to stay up now with no sleep.....just can't risk missing something potentially good in the severe weather department, especially squall lines. Had a lively gust a few minutes ago that woke my 2 year old dog up......she barked extremely loud 'once'....... then nodded back off dreaming of tomorrow's grub
  2. Winds remain strong and gusty on the Suffolk/Cambridgeshire boundary. Remaining crispy Autumn leaves are hurling themselves through the unstable atmosphere, propelling themselves like unhinged missiles...... On a serious note it is turbulent out there.... the weather is angry tonight. Mammatus
  3. The low pressure is definitely further south than programmed by the models, so expect tomorrow pm's severe gales to be further south to. North Wales, the north midlands into Lincolnshire and Norfolk more likely to bear the brunt as it exits into the North Sea. Lots of nowcasting...... Gusty in Suffolk now.... here's hoping the gales blow down my neighbour's conifers that are over-grown and blocking all light into my garden. lol Mammatus
  4. 20:00 Surface Pressure Plot Looks even more impressive on the Euro! A strong Atlantic storm on our shores. One area to watch tonight is the back-edge squall-line sweeping Wales and England. Some violent and likely damaging convective gusts will be associated with this. Mammatus
  5. GFS 18z Parallel programmed 03:00 Saturday 10th. A distinct and noteworthy shortwave sweeping E/SE with some really vicious gusts I suspect for Wales, the Midlands and into Lincolnshire and East Anglia before it clears quickly away after 11:00. A trend for this severe weather to be further south as we approach T+0. Mammatus
  6. Looking forward to the forthcoming 18z Liam, some consistency emerging I feel. Although, like you I believe there will be some minor changes with regards to the strength and positioning of these vigorous low pressures. Mammatus
  7. Something like this would be ideal, but unlikely here in Suffolk
  8. A downgrade in real terms for Friday's storm northern Scotland on tonight's GFS 18z as others have said in previous posts^. BUT, an upgrade for most of Wales and England north of the M4 corridor for Saturday 10th January 00:00 - 12:00. Saturday imo has been the day to watch for over a week now, especially with the extremely powerful jet right over the UK. GFS certainly shoulder to shoulder with latest ECM output this evening, albeit slightly watered-down wrt wind gusts but still damaging nonetheless! 18z GFS - Saturday morning - Widespread severe gales across most of England (north of M4) with gusts in excess of 70 mph inland. You then have prone exposed locations that would outstrip 70mph comfortably. Interesting few days coming up for us storm fanatics. Along with further modifications as we get closer to the weekend! Mammatus
  9. Hello everyone, Have been keeping a close eye on the models since my post 5 days ago and the trend for some really violent weather across the UK and Ireland is probably going to become a reality later next week. As you can see from this morning's GFS 06z (below - programmed for this coming thursday pm - T+111), the jet stream swoops east from Canada, then east/northeast across the Atlantic towards the UK. Closer to the ground bitterly cold dry air is streaming south from Canada and meeting warm moist air moving north from the Caribbean. It is where these two air-masses are going to meet under the jet stream that these extremely powerful Atlantic storms will form and head straight towards Ireland and the UK. With mean wind speeds forecast to be 'potentially' 70 mph in exposed prone locations and gusts 'potentially' exceeding 100 mph+ all within the reliable time frame, we all really do have to keep tabs on developments as this/these could be dangerous wind storms that cause havoc. Lots to watch over the coming hours and days!!! Mammatus.
  10. Firstly and most importantly Happy New Year to you all. I wanted to start a distinct thread discussion for the period illustrated above. Mods, please feel free to amalgamate with the general storm discussion if necessary. For several days now some really quite monstrous Atlantic storms have been showing up in the models correlated with the above dates. It's far to early to discuss specific details with regards to the storms track and/or intensity, but there is an unmistakable and bold trend towards some really quite atrocious weather for the United Kingdom and Ireland. One storm I have highlighted is for the 10th January 2015. Very deep low pressures Powerful strong jet stream aloft Wind gusts in excess of 90mph inland We are all heading for a bumpy ride into the New Year! Mammatus
  11. The wrap around precipitation starting to intensify now with a distinct line of rain, sleet and snow clearly visible on the radar from Manchester down to Swansea. As this drifts SE and the colder air digs in expect this to be all snow come 00:00. For those that haven't seen snow so far don't write this low pressure off just yet Matty M mentioned in an earlier post about the strong winds across the SE during the early hours. I completely agree with this and expect a warning by the MetO over the coming hours covering the SE and perhaps southern EA near the core of the low where the tightest isobars will be. Could be quite stormy out there for a few hours with minor tree/property damage. Mammatus
  12. What initially started as rain and sleet at 17:15 is just rain now. Feeling somewhat optimistic for later this evening as the centre of the low pressure drifts south of here and the colder temps dig in behind the precipitation. With the low pressure still close by to SE England and EA tomorrow morning, I expect there to be snow flurries/moderate outbreaks of snow throughout the day. Keeping tabs on the wind gusts as this gives us a good indication of the pressure dropping/low deepening. Essex, Herts, London, Sussex and Kent could have some damaging NW gales during the early hours as the low pressure exits SE into the Continental Europe. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 70 mph tomorrow 03:00 - 07:00. Mammatus
  13. With the upcoming low pressure programmed further and further south with every run as we get closer to T+0 this is where I suspect the low pressure will end up being come Friday/Saturday. Trans-Pennine routes, the Welsh Mountains and SW/Dartmoor I suspect will get some disruptive snowfall with drifting as the low exists SE. With the NW/N/NE winds subjected to increase rapidly across EA and Kent as the low exits SE into the Continent I wouldn't be surprised to see inland gusts in excess of 65 mph with 70 mph along the Lincs/EA coastline. With SST's still relatively high I think any chance of snowfall will be minimal across Norfolk, Suffolk and Essex. Head into Cambridgeshire and Hertfordshire, and your chances of snow increase somewhat. It's nice to see the risk of snow across England after what was a very mild, wet and windy Winter 2013/14. Merry Christmas all. Mammatus :-)
  14. Buoy 62023 23:00 54 - 71 mph ~ Wind It's going to be a stormy night in Southern England. Mammatus.
  15. Interesting few hours ahead for Southern England, the SE and E.Anglia. Rapidly deepening now..... the low pressure really feeding itself...... IR Satellite Image I suspect inland gusts hitting 70.mph across Sussex, Kent and Essex during the early hours, with 80.mph through the Dover Straits. Mammatus
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