Jackfrost

Hah. It has felt a bit like that this week, either with DPs being too high or any precipitation from the north being snuffed out by the Beacons. And I hope nobody thinks I'm being needlessly negative - if an all-snow event like Storm Emma was on the horizon I'd be shouting about it - but I'm not convinced that the time has come for deep, widespread snow in these parts just yet.

150-200 m, I agree, but I think the bigger question at the moment is whether there'll be much noticeable precipitation around. Something to monitor when the 6Z begins rolling out in just over an hour.

I know nobody wants to hear this but I'd urge a lot of caution over tomorrow's "event". This morning's output takes the feature further south, only just grazing South Wales for a few hours with light precipitation. Also, as we've found out over the last few days, most of us aren't on the right side of marginal just yet and whatever happens, it's fairly unlikely to snow in coastal areas. That said, there's still much uncertainty about the track of the system and as always in these situations, the slightest adjustment makes a big difference (the difference between snow, rain or the dreaded "wintry mix") and somewhere's loss is always somewhere else's gain. I'll make a little map of where I'd expect any snow to be tomorrow based on output later this morning.

I don't think they're exaggerating so much as covering themselves. Most of the output we've seen suggests fairly light precipitation not getting that far north at all, so for them to issue a warning covering an area stretching from Cornwall to Norfolk and Powys and Kent, and mentioning the possibility of 10-15 cm in places, suggests they might be privy to data that we aren't just yet.

Come on, I think we both know you will. Just reminiscing over past snow events, and does anybody remember the late season snowfall of March 11th, 2004? It was the day of the Madrid train bombings, if that jogs anyone's memories. It's one that never gets mentioned these days. I was 13 at the time but I'd just started taking basic weather records, and I recorded 17 cm of level snow.

Bit taken aback by that warning, especially as the most recent GFS output is having none of it and the UKV doesn't bring anything other than light precipitation any further than Devon. A front approaching from the Atlantic and colliding with cold, stagnant air in situ is by far my favourite set-up and the one that delivers for all of South Wales more than any other, but am I up for for another round of model and radar watching after last night's disappointment? Hmm.

The showers that have passed through in the last half an hour have been of rain so it's not looking good for places south of here, and besides, that precipitation moving in from the northwest is gradually becoming patchier as its energy is sapped by the high ground. I don't understand it. There's a layer of ice on everything and the flakes that fell earlier (all ten of them!) have frozen on impact, and yet it's raining. I suppose the DPs are just too high.

Snowing here now. A bit late for this band as it'll clear within the next fifteen minutes, but there's a second clump of precipitation now moving into the Cardigan Bay area and moving southeastwards.

Well, the low itself is beginning its pivot over Cheshire and it'll slowly decay and drift south with its dribs and drabs of (possibly) something wintry throughout the day over (probably) the Southeast Wales/Gloucestershire/Bristol areas, but as for the main band, it does look like a bust unfortunately! What's falling outside right now is quite sleety, I suppose, but even that's less than what my already limited expectations had allowed for.

Hopefully I'll be eating these words later, but has something gone a bit wrong tonight? It's raining here, in an area that was expected to see some snow, and the front is moving through at a fair old speed which means it'll clear Southeast Wales within an hour or so. Disappointing.

Regarding the overnight snow, I suspect the dreaded M-word could be a factor for many of us, with temperatures maybe a degree or so the wrong side of optimal. The 12Z is now trickling out and while it's far from a disaster, I'd urge caution to avoid disappointment. This will be a nowcasting event and could end up as anything from simply watching a few flakes fall to a surprise, widespread covering. Looking at the radar, the secondary low, which is currently to the west of Scotland, has a bit more oomph to it than I expected.

March 2013, by any chance? December 2013 was a very mild and wet month but that March was historically cold and very snowy up your way. Either way, an incredible photo!

Fun fact: The League got stuck in the snow in West Wales in early '82 while on their way to (or back from) Ireland. Speaking of which, the blizzard of Jan. 6th-9th that year was incredibly severe in Glamorgan, Monmouthshire and Gloucestershire, as these photos taken in my hometown show: Level depths were widely 50-75 cm and this was followed by a week or so of extremely low (as in sub -10°C) temperatures. And all soundtracked by the superb "Dare" album!

As things stand, Wales is very much in the game for some snow overnight tomorrow into Monday. But first, let's get through Bella without having the roof torn off!

I got stung making a snow prediction during that half-hearted cold spell at the start of the month so I'll hold off making one now, but if I had to then yours doesn't sound far off the mark! I agree that any showers following the secondary low would favour more northern and western locations in Wales; Southeast Wales tends to benefit most from somewhat different synoptics.

Yes, there's a strong regional bias towards Southeast England in the MOD, which makes sense as it's Britain's most populous region. There's also an element of regional competitiveness, kind of a desire to hog all the snow (and can anyone here honestly say they haven't felt a bit smug when we in Wales have been half-buried and other places have struggled to see a single flake? Hah) Regarding Monday, while we're far from guaranteed snow in Wales, I also haven't seen anything this morning to suggest this will be a Southeast England-only event. The track of the low is still not pinned down and it'll be hard to make any accurate forecast probably until tomorrow morning, but at this stage some falling snow in the dead of night is possible at the very least.

Thanks Keith. I always err on the side of caution with these things and don't like to ramp but yesterday even that wasn't enough! Looking to the present, there's a band of fairly heavy precipitation now moving in from the E-NE. Snow is being reported from it in Gloucestershire and Wiltshire so that'll likely equal snow in southeast Wales when it does arrive, possibly even to fairly low levels, and once it moves in it should be with us for an hour or two.

My prediction for southeast Wales yesterday was a bit off. I'm honestly surprised there was no lying snow, even at the highest point of the A465 at over 400 m. Glad to see settling snow in other parts of the country, though! Sorry if I got anybody's hopes up unnecessarily.

My prediction for today, knowing this part of southeast Wales and its climate as well as I do, and based on years of observations: the 00Z is still going for widespread snow away from coastal areas but not widespread settling snow. Based on this, and also the Met Office and BBC forecasts, I certainly wouldn't bet against falling snow in the Valleys and Monmouthshire from this afternoon onwards, with possibly some wintriness closer to sea level from the VoG eastwards, but I'd expect settling snow to be mostly restricted to the usual places (the tops between the valleys, communities in the Heads of the Valleys and, of course, the Beacons and Black Mountains). That said, some settling snow can't be ruled out as the evening goes on and temperatures drop, especially if EP plays any part as happened on Nov. 13th last year. It does look maybe a little sleety under the streetlight here this morning, but I can't be sure.

I'm back after my long summer hibernation and I'm a bit surprised to see a second consecutive GFS run is keen on bringing falling (if not widespread settling) snow to the bulk of Wales, on-and-off, for a two day period between Thursday and Saturday. Most of this is away from the coast, from the Valleys up to North Wales, but some wintriness does appear to reach sea level at times. Also, the focus of any snow has now moved north and west and away from the east of England. It's worth taking these with a pinch of salt as the GFS does tend to over-egg snow but in all honesty, after the year we've had and after a long run of rubbish winters (well, except for 2017-18), I think most of us would be happy with some falling snow and slushy deposits!

For anyone awake at this unholy hour, the band is now creeping back south and is actually re-intensifying a little as it goes. I'm a bit surprised to see the snow which fell earlier has turned to ice while a thick fog has also descended. It certainly feels like mid-Winter rather than mid-Autumn.

Yes, 2-3 cm here too. The interesting thing is that while the main band is moving slowly into Mid Wales (only for a time, before it pivots and moves back into South Wales later tonight), there are still plenty of showers and dribs of drabs of precipitation moving in our direction. The fact that it's snowing as low down as Caerphilly town, Pontardawe and Pontypridd shows that temperatures are lower than expected (evaporative cooling, perhaps?) so there's every chance that this could turn into an unexpected and early snowfall event as the night goes on.

Heavy, settling snow here for the last hour or so. This is a little unexpected, especially as Derek Brockway on Wales Today promised snow above 400-500 metres only just an hour ago!

It's coming fairly thick here with a decent covering. It looks like the rest of the night will see continuous moderate snow rather than anything overly heavy, which I think most of us will be happy with. The Met Office's hourly forecast for my closest location, updated at 21:00 (which, bear in mind, has limited human input) now shows this:

I believe you might be right. How many more ups and downs can we take in one night? Let's see if it comes together.