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Jackfrost

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    Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL

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  1. For anyone awake at this unholy hour, the band is now creeping back south and is actually re-intensifying a little as it goes. I'm a bit surprised to see the snow which fell earlier has turned to ice while a thick fog has also descended. It certainly feels like mid-Winter rather than mid-Autumn.
  2. Yes, 2-3 cm here too. The interesting thing is that while the main band is moving slowly into Mid Wales (only for a time, before it pivots and moves back into South Wales later tonight), there are still plenty of showers and dribs of drabs of precipitation moving in our direction. The fact that it's snowing as low down as Caerphilly town, Pontardawe and Pontypridd shows that temperatures are lower than expected (evaporative cooling, perhaps?) so there's every chance that this could turn into an unexpected and early snowfall event as the night goes on.
  3. Heavy, settling snow here for the last hour or so. This is a little unexpected, especially as Derek Brockway on Wales Today promised snow above 400-500 metres only just an hour ago!
  4. It's coming fairly thick here with a decent covering. It looks like the rest of the night will see continuous moderate snow rather than anything overly heavy, which I think most of us will be happy with. The Met Office's hourly forecast for my closest location, updated at 21:00 (which, bear in mind, has limited human input) now shows this:
  5. I believe you might be right. How many more ups and downs can we take in one night? Let's see if it comes together.
  6. There seems to be little doubt now that the front is decaying in situ and besides, the amber warning expires at 9. It's not out of the question that it'll all come together but it's beginning to look less likely. I apologise to anyone whose hopes I kept high throughout the day. Everything did seem to be going to plan until it just... wasn't. There are also going to be a lot of irritated people tomorrow as many schools have pre-emptively closed.
  7. Alright, I'm prepared to admit there does seem to be a possibility, but not a guarantee, that some of us will end up disappointed tomorrow. There is more snow on the way but it might not be as heavy as expected, leading to generally light coverings rather than thick blankets. Time will tell, as always.
  8. Well, I'm looking at presumably the same radars as you (Met Office and Netweather), and I'm watching the system move slowly north with the western end moving northwards at a slower pace than the eastern side, which signifies the beginning of the pivot. Regarding the decay in intensity, this is inevitable to an extent when a moisture-laden front in our climate runs into stationary cold air as cold air saps moisture. Those yellow accents currently over Southern England will make it to South Wales, and they're likely to be somewhat reinvigorated by the high ground here. The precipitation to the south of Wales is indeed weakening but, due to the pivot, it will soon begin to feed in from a southeasterly direction. So try not to panic. ?
  9. 11? Yes, that was far too early. I also feel that schools in the Valleys overreacted slightly by closing soon after lunchtime. Like I said, it has arrived a bit later than expected, and actual falling snow was delayed by evaporation for an hour or so, but it was always meant to be an evening event.
  10. I don't mean to single out anybody in particular but this negativity is both baffling and tiresome. It is still moving north and it is beginning to pivot: look at what the eastern arm of the front over France is doing. Yes, I admit it's arrived a little later than most of us had expected but fundamentally, nothing has changed at all. Moderate snow here and settling on all surfaces.
  11. Snowing here. It's moving northeastwards and then, at some point, it'll stall, begin to pivot and then feed in from the east.
  12. For anyone concerned it's now too warm for snow in Wales, here's Cornwall at this very minute with police issuing "do not travel" advisories: It's even snowing in Padstow, on the Cornish coast.
  13. Yes, it's nothing to worry about. Cold air and moisture don't mix well: not only does it evaporate but it also causes frontal systems to weaken and eventually decay, as we'll see tomorrow. It's also why, thanks to climate change, a warmer future is likely to be a wetter one, especially in winter, but that's for another time!
  14. My timing has been a little off... There is actually precipitation over most of Southeast Wales at the moment but it's failing to reach the ground due to evaporation, something which is common in cold air but I did expect at least some if it to reach terra firma! The moderate/heavy stuff is now fringing onto the coast around Porthcawl, though, so expect it be snowing within the next hour. My forecast through today and tomorrow:
  15. The front is slowly beginning its pivot and while it has lost some of its intensity, which is almost unavoidable when any kind of precipitation come in contact with cold air, there's still plenty enough intensity to give many centimetres of snow. Expect light snow to begin in the Valleys within the next twenty minutes.
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