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Jackfrost

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    Nelson, Caerphilly, South Wales. 175m ASL

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  1. It's coming fairly thick here with a decent covering. It looks like the rest of the night will see continuous moderate snow rather than anything overly heavy, which I think most of us will be happy with. The Met Office's hourly forecast for my closest location, updated at 21:00 (which, bear in mind, has limited human input) now shows this:
  2. I believe you might be right. How many more ups and downs can we take in one night? Let's see if it comes together.
  3. There seems to be little doubt now that the front is decaying in situ and besides, the amber warning expires at 9. It's not out of the question that it'll all come together but it's beginning to look less likely. I apologise to anyone whose hopes I kept high throughout the day. Everything did seem to be going to plan until it just... wasn't. There are also going to be a lot of irritated people tomorrow as many schools have pre-emptively closed.
  4. Alright, I'm prepared to admit there does seem to be a possibility, but not a guarantee, that some of us will end up disappointed tomorrow. There is more snow on the way but it might not be as heavy as expected, leading to generally light coverings rather than thick blankets. Time will tell, as always.
  5. Well, I'm looking at presumably the same radars as you (Met Office and Netweather), and I'm watching the system move slowly north with the western end moving northwards at a slower pace than the eastern side, which signifies the beginning of the pivot. Regarding the decay in intensity, this is inevitable to an extent when a moisture-laden front in our climate runs into stationary cold air as cold air saps moisture. Those yellow accents currently over Southern England will make it to South Wales, and they're likely to be somewhat reinvigorated by the high ground here. The precipitation to the south of Wales is indeed weakening but, due to the pivot, it will soon begin to feed in from a southeasterly direction. So try not to panic.
  6. 11? Yes, that was far too early. I also feel that schools in the Valleys overreacted slightly by closing soon after lunchtime. Like I said, it has arrived a bit later than expected, and actual falling snow was delayed by evaporation for an hour or so, but it was always meant to be an evening event.
  7. I don't mean to single out anybody in particular but this negativity is both baffling and tiresome. It is still moving north and it is beginning to pivot: look at what the eastern arm of the front over France is doing. Yes, I admit it's arrived a little later than most of us had expected but fundamentally, nothing has changed at all. Moderate snow here and settling on all surfaces.
  8. Snowing here. It's moving northeastwards and then, at some point, it'll stall, begin to pivot and then feed in from the east.
  9. For anyone concerned it's now too warm for snow in Wales, here's Cornwall at this very minute with police issuing "do not travel" advisories: It's even snowing in Padstow, on the Cornish coast.
  10. Yes, it's nothing to worry about. Cold air and moisture don't mix well: not only does it evaporate but it also causes frontal systems to weaken and eventually decay, as we'll see tomorrow. It's also why, thanks to climate change, a warmer future is likely to be a wetter one, especially in winter, but that's for another time!
  11. My timing has been a little off... There is actually precipitation over most of Southeast Wales at the moment but it's failing to reach the ground due to evaporation, something which is common in cold air but I did expect at least some if it to reach terra firma! The moderate/heavy stuff is now fringing onto the coast around Porthcawl, though, so expect it be snowing within the next hour. My forecast through today and tomorrow:
  12. The front is slowly beginning its pivot and while it has lost some of its intensity, which is almost unavoidable when any kind of precipitation come in contact with cold air, there's still plenty enough intensity to give many centimetres of snow. Expect light snow to begin in the Valleys within the next twenty minutes.
  13. An amber warning has been issued. The maximum depth, 10 cm, seems a bit undercooked to me, but time will tell. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?region=wl&date=2019-01-31&regionType=area
  14. 10-15 cm is 10-15 cm, regardless of whether the warning is amber or yellow! Still, I'm around 70% confident an amber warning will go out this morning for Southeast Wales and the southern part of Mid Wales.
  15. It's mostly algorithms and data rather than human input which create the hourly location forecasts, which is why there's so much divergence both between the BBC and Met Office and between locations and which is why I have more faith in what expert forecasters have to say (despite that being an unpopular view amongst some here!) There are differences in the output for Mountain Ash, Treharris, Ystrad Mynach and Bargoed, for example, despite them being so close to each other that any differences are going to be negligible to non-existent.
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