NorthNSW

First winter storm of the year is about to start affecting Perth and the southwestern corner of Western Australia. A low currently around 999hPa is expected to deepen off the southwest corner of WA to about 975hPa by tomorrow evening. According to the Severe Weather Warning issued by BOM today, gusts could locally reach in excess of 125km/h: Severe Weather Warning for destructive winds for people in the Central West, Lower West and South West forecast districts Issued at 11:12 am WST on Tuesday 7 May 2013. For people in parts of WA southwest of a line from Geraldton to Northam to Walpole. This includes people in, near or between the following towns: Jurien Bay, Augusta, Busselton, Bunbury, Mandurah and the Perth metropolitan area but not including Northam or the Central Wheat Belt. Weather Situation A strong cold front will move over the region Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning. During Wednesday and Thursday a deep low will pass to the south of the state. The passage of the strong cold front Tuesday evening and early Wednesday morning may cause LOCALISED DANGEROUS GUSTS in excess of 125 kilometres per hour that could cause SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OR DESTRUCTION TO HOMES AND PROPERTY. Thunderstorms and moderate to heavy falls are also possible. During Wednesday and Thursday a deep low will pass just to the south of the state. This system may bring widespread damaging winds, locally destructive gusts and abnormally high tides. Large swells may cause beach erosion. The weather overnight Tuesday and into early Wednesday is typical weather for this time of the year but winds may cause localised damage to property and make road conditions hazardous. The passage of the deep low on Wednesday and Thursday is likely to produce the kind of weather that is only seen once or twice a year and the worst weather is likely to be south of Bunbury. (Link: http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/severe.shtml) Perth has a Mediterranean climate, and receives about 70% of its average annual rainfall in the wintry months (May-Aug, inclusive). It is highly reliant on these frontal systems for rainfall.

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Apr 29th - 15.1ºC/26.8ºC - NE 22km/h @ 3:06pm - Nil Apr 30th - 16.0ºC/26.1ºC - NNE 33km/h @ 3:44pm - Nil May 1st - 16.5ºC/27.7ºC - NNE 33km/h @ 2:56pm - Nil May 2nd - 16.3ºC/22.2ºC - S 50km/h @ 1:57pm - Nil May 3rd - 14.1ºC/22.9ºC - SW 35km/h @ 2:14am - Nil May 4th - 12.9ºC/25.4ºC - WSW 31km/h @ 10:14pm - Nil May 5th - 14.3ºC/21.9ºC - WSW 35km/h @ 11:27pm - Nil Past week: Another fine and dry week, though more cloudy than the week before. Isolated showers associated with a passing cold front on the 2nd stayed offshore. A cold front clipped the region later on the 4th, but once again any precipitation stayed offshore. Midday images from past week (2:47pm image was closest to midday on the 30th), and near-sunset on the 30th [imagesize approx 700kb]: I'm heading down to Canberra on the 10th and returning on the 15th, so I'll only do a little forecast for the next three days, then on the 9th before I leave, for the week as per normal. Have noticed a wasp eyeing off the solar radiation guard protecting the temp sensor. It's been flying around it for the past two days, hasn't built a nest yet, I'm sending it telepathic messages to not build a nest (lol). Maybe that's working, or maybe it's waiting for me to go away in a few days. Next three days (May 6th to May 8th): A high in the southern Tasman Sea will direct an onshore airstream onto the coast producing isolated showers about the region. There is the chance of a shower or two through tonight, tomorrow, and until around Wednesday morning (just had an ever-so-brief shower a moment ago, even though it's night-time, I know it wouldn't have been enough to register in the gauge). A ridge of high pressure is expected to start moving in during Wednesday clearing away any showers that may be wandering about. Bureau's forecast max temps for tomorrow and Wednesday: 22 / 23

I reckon I'll have a sub-20 before you have a sub-10. You can get a sub-20 maximum anytime of year here, but between December and March (inclusive), it requires a unseasonably cool airmass that has to be very moist as well bringing heavy cloud, no breaks of sunshine at all, and constant / near-constant rain all day, generally all these factors do not align so you'll end up with a 21-23ºC day on these occasional wet "dreary" days of summer. The vast majority of the first sub-20 maximum of the year occurs in April or May though. The five latest sub-20 maximums from Jan 1st (since 1957): 1971 - May 17th 1973 - May 17th 1957 - May 20th 2000 - May 21st 1974 - May 23rd Have only failed to have a sub-20 max in May twice (2004 & 2007), however both of these years had a sub-20 max in April instead. In 56 years of records, there's never been a sub-10 max here, the record low max is 11.1ºC (July 23rd 1968). A sub-15 max has failed to occur in 15 of 56 years (about 25% of years). Despite a good handful of years with no sub-15 maxs, there has never been a year on record that has not recorded at least one sub-16 max.

While visiting the BOM page this afternoon, I noticed how cold it was in Hobart (sitting just below 8ºC) and that it was raining. So I shot over to the Hobart webcam that looks toward Mt Wellington, and there's snow! A fair contrast to the 27.7ºC maximum we had up here today. The cold front that affected down there today is expected to just brush us tomorrow morning, with a cooler day around 22ºC forecast. Still awaiting the first sub-20ºC maximum of the year here.

It was a pretty gutsy low down there Styx, makes you wonder what the wind speeds were like over the ocean nearer to the low's centre. Would have been the Furious Fifties for sure. Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Apr 22nd - 14.5ºC/25.7ºC - NE 37km/h @ 1:22pm - Nil Apr 23rd - 14.7ºC/25.4ºC - SE 20km/h @ 12:18pm - Nil Apr 24th - 14.7ºC/24.8ºC - NE 24km/h @ 3:41pm - Nil Apr 25th - 14.9ºC/24.0ºC - S 28km/h @ 12:26pm - Nil Apr 26th - 13.8ºC/24.9ºC - SSE 24km/h @ 11:19am - Nil Apr 27th - 14.0ºC/25.6ºC - NE 33km/h @ 3:43pm - Nil Apr 28th - 16.3ºC/26.2ºC - NE 31km/h @ 1:41pm - Nil Past week: The weather was fine and dry all week. A thunderstorm did develop several kilometres offshore late on the 24th, though it moved further out to sea after forming. Midday webcam images from week, and dawn on ANZAC Day (Apr 25th) [image approx 700kb]: This week (Apr 29th to May 5th): A ridge of high pressure is expected to bring fine and dry weather until Thursday. A weak cold front looks like it will produce a shower or two on Thursday. Fine and dry weather should return by Friday morning and persist over the weekend as an area of high pressure starts move towards and over northern New South Wales. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Sunday): 26 / 27 / 26 / 23 / 25 / 27

In the 7-day forecast, the Bureau are currently forecasting maximum temps of 27ºC on the 1st and 2nd of May. Not record-breaking (May record here is 29.5ºC), but still fairly unusual for May.

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Apr 15th - 18.8ºC/26.1ºC - NE 31km/h @ 2:14pm - Nil Apr 16th - 16.8ºC/26.0ºC - S 39km/h @ 1:29pm - 11.6mm Apr 17th - 16.0ºC/25.0ºC - SW 26km/h @ 6:05am - Nil Apr 18th - 17.0ºC/27.6ºC - SW 19km/h @ 8:50am - Nil Apr 19th - 17.8ºC/24.2ºC - S 39km/h @ 3:01pm - Nil Apr 20th - 14.8ºC/22.5ºC - SW 48km/h @ 10:20pm - 3.0mm Apr 21st - 13.4ºC/23.0ºC - SW 41km/h @ 9:33am - Nil Past week: On the 16th, a trough passing through the region triggered a thunderstorm, fairly benign really just a few flashes and steady rain. A surge of showers/wind pushed up the coast later on the 20th, courtesy of a low in the Tasman and a ridge of high pressure moving in. The minimum on the 21st was the coldest night of the year so far. Midday images from week, and seaspray reducing visibility for a period on the morning of the 15th (Image approx. 700kb): This week (Apr 22nd to Apr 28th): It should be a mostly fine and dry week overall. A ridge of high pressure will bring fine and dry conditions for the remainder of today and through to Wednesday. A weak trough will influence the region from late Wednesday and into Thursday. The slight chance of a shower on Thursday, with a lack of moisture looking like inhibiting convective development. An area of high pressure is expected to move into western New South Wales on Friday and over northern NSW and into the northern Tasman Sea over the weekend, with a continuation of fine and dry conditions over these three days. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Sunday): 27 / 26 / 25 / 26 / 26 / 27

Styx, I think I can see settled snow at the top of Mt Wellington on today's midday image (second hump from the right on the 'main mountain' just below the bottom of the cloud base? (Picture below is about 4MB in size): Compare this to yesterday's midday image: http://www.rosebay.tased.edu.au/webcam/archive/18-04-2013.jpg Could you see any settled snow at top of Mt Wellington? Looks like the showers were a bit heavier than forecast with 11mm in Hobart (third wettest day of the year so far). Snow expected to fall today down to 1200m on the far southern ranges of New South Wales today (more-or-less in the Snowy Mountains). A decent number of locations on the NSW ranges could see their first frost of the year this weekend. Any frost in those places on the weekend should be light though.

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Apr 8th - 16.1ºC/25.8ºC - SSE 30km/h @ 12:50pm - 1.6mm Apr 9th - 16.2ºC/25.6ºC - ENE 35km/h @ 12:01pm - 63.2mm Apr 10th - 15.0ºC/24.0ºC - ESE 31km/h @ 10:41am - Nil Apr 11th - 16.0ºC/26.1ºC - SSW 26km/h @ 7:33am - 3.4mm Apr 12th - 16.5ºC/26.1ºC - ESE 37km/h @ 2:42pm - 3.0mm Apr 13th - 16.0ºC/20.6ºC - WSW 31km/h @ 2:37am - Nil Apr 14th - 17.5ºC/26.1ºC - SW 26km/h @ 11:22am - Nil Past week: A thunderstorm on the 9th delivered a decent part of the rain that fell on that date. A low came down the Queensland coast on the weekend but stayed far enough offshore to only produce a couple of light showers. Persistent cloudcover on the 13th saw a maximum of just 20.6ºC, although winds were generally light and humidity was very high so it didn't feel particularly cool. Webcam images for the week at midday, and a image of a heavy shower of rain moving in on the 9th with a little rainbow visible. The cam has had a fair amount of downtime since mid February: This week (Apr 15th to Apr 21st): This week will see the influence of the tropics wane, and the beginning of the shift toward being more influenced by mid-latitude systems here. A trough moved into eastern New South Wales today, though it remains fine here. Tomorrow, the trough will move into the northeast of the state, and bring an afternoon/evening shower and possibly a thunderstorm. On Wednesday, there is the chance of an afternoon shower in lingering instability as the trough moves to the north and into far southern Queensland where it is expected to weaken. A southerly airstream should be directed up the coast on Friday as a high moves into the Tasman Sea, which should bring the chance of a light shower or drizzle on Friday and Saturday. A weak trough may near the region later on Sunday. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Sunday): 27 / 25 / 26 / 24 / 24 / 24

Received quite a downpour in a thunderstorm last night, with 63.2mm falling, largely coming from that storm. Btw, it is starting to look like the low forecast to develop this weekend could hug a bit closer to coast than first thought before heading to NZ. This closer track could produce some showery weather.

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Apr 1st - 17.8ºC/23.9ºC - SSW 48km/h @ 10:05am - 1.4mm Apr 2nd - 18.7ºC/27.5ºC - WSW 28km/h @ 11:05pm - Nil Apr 3rd - 18.0ºC/27.2ºC - S 70km/h @ 5:38pm - 3.6mm Apr 4th - 15.4ºC/24.0ºC - SSE 43km/h @ 7:59pm - 0.6mm Apr 5th - 15.7ºC/23.6ºC - SSE 37km/h @ 11:28pm - 3.6mm Apr 6th - 15.0ºC/22.7ºC - WSW 33km/h @ 3:40am - 36.2mm Apr 7th - 15.2ºC/25.0ºC - E 33km/h @ 11:12am - 0.2mm Past week: An onshore airstream persisted all week. Two upper troughs during the week helped to destablise conditions, giving the showers more "oomph", we didn't have much luck with the first upper trough though, missing the heavy falls associated with the isolated storms. Although, there were isolated heavy falls of up to 106mm from those localised storms not overly far away from here. We did better with the second upper trough, scoring a good load of showers on the 6th. This week (Apr 8th to Apr 14th): The onshore airstream will continue into part of this week, a shower or two is possible tonight. An upper trough should wander through tomorrow, with a few showers likely and the slight chance of a thunderstorm. This should ease to a light shower or two on Wednesday. Thursday could bring the chance of a shower, otherwise be fine. Later in the week, a low may form off the southern Queensland coast on the weekend, but it looks like it will make a beeline for New Zealand. At this stage, fine weather (courtesy of a ridge of high pressure) looks like being the most likely outcome for here on Friday and over the weekend. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Sunday): 25 / 25 / 26 / 27 / 26 / 26

A bit tardy with this update because of Easter. Hope everyone had a good holiday/rest. Summary here over the past eight days (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Mar 24th - 21.8ºC/30.2ºC - WNW 33km/h @ 3:52pm - Nil Mar 25th - 21.5ºC/30.4ºC - SSE 26km/h @ 1:24pm - Nil Mar 26th - 21.4ºC/29.7ºC - ENE 30km/h @ 3:43pm - Nil Mar 27th - 21.7ºC/28.2ºC - NNE 37km/h @ 12:27pm - Nil Mar 28th - 22.0ºC/27.5ºC - NNE 48km/h @ 2:37pm - Nil Mar 29th - 20.0ºC/26.3ºC - S 43km/h @ 3:22pm - Nil Mar 30th - 17.0ºC/25.5ºC - SW 31km/h @ 2:07am - Nil Mar 31st - 19.4ºC/26.7ºC - NNW 35km/h @ 9:53am - Nil Past eight days: Summery heat and humidity persisted for the bulk of the time. The 24th to 28th felt like January, a sweat-a-thon. A couple of days there was a little tiny bit of rainfall, but not even enough to record 0.2mm. We have bad timing with the troughs during these days and so they didn't bring any recordable rain, different story less than an hour to the north though. This week (Apr 1st to Apr 7th): During this week, a high pressure system should move eastwards into the Tasman Sea. The high is expected to direct an onshore airstream onto the coast all-week. An evening shower or two is possible today. Chance light shower tomorrow, otherwise fine. The flow should strengthen later on Wednesday, which should see shower activity increase. Occasional showers look likely for Thursday. A shower or two should persist into Friday, and possibly lingering into Saturday and Sunday too. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Sunday): 27 / 26 / 25 / 25 / 24 / 24 Daylight Saving will come to an end at 3am on Sunday. On Saturday, sunrise will be at 7:01am and sunset at 6:38pm. However on Sunday this will change to sunrise at 6:02am and sunset at 5:36pm.

Booooooo, two failed storm days in a row. Yesterday, too much high cloud spoilt the party. And then today, the storms formed just a little bit too far north (storms were as near as 40kms away). Have had to put up with summery heat and humidity in past three days, but with no reward. Summary here over the past fortnight (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Mar 10th - 18.1ºC/26.2ºC - SW 33km/h @ 8:52am - 4.6mm Mar 11th - 18.8ºC/26.4ºC - ESE 28km/h @ 3:12pm - 3.4mm Mar 12th - 18.0ºC/25.3ºC - ESE 31km/h @ 11:47am - 3.4mm Mar 13th - 18.7ºC/25.9ºC - SW 30km/h @ 8:21am - 0.4mm Mar 14th - 16.0ºC/26.6ºC - S 39km/h @ 6:30pm - Nil Mar 15th - 20.1ºC/27.7ºC - SSW 43km/h @ 8:34am - 4.0mm Mar 16th - 18.6ºC/26.6ºC - N 28km/h @ 9:08pm - Nil Mar 17th - 18.9ºC/27.3ºC - S 65km/h @ 2:31pm - Nil Mar 18th - 17.4ºC/23.4ºC - SSW 43km/h @ 9:06am - 0.6mm Mar 19th - 16.7ºC/24.0ºC - ESE 31km/h @ 2:19pm - 6.8mm Mar 20th - 15.5ºC/23.9ºC - ENE 33km/h @ 10:33am - 3.8mm Mar 21st - 15.8ºC/25.2ºC - NNE 39km/h @ 12:47pm - Nil Mar 22nd - 19.9ºC/29.5ºC - NNE 52km/h @ 2:18pm - Nil Mar 23rd - 21.7ºC/31.9ºC - NW 31km/h @ 7:37am - Nil This week (Mar 24th to Mar 30th): Another very warm and humid day today. As described above, storms fired near here, but we were just a little too far south. A trough currently sits across the northeast of the state. It should weaken through tomorrow and dissipate on Tuesday. There is the possibility of an afternoon shower tomorrow in the lingering, weak instability. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday should be fine thanks to a ridge of high pressure. On Good Friday, a trough is expected to approach the north of the state. At this stage, it looks like it could bring the possibility of an afternoon/evening shower or storm on Good Friday and Easter Saturday. Warm and humid, summer-like conditions are expected to persist all week. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Saturday): 29 / 28 / 28 / 28 / 28 / 26 A couple of pictures from my short holiday out to the Tamworth region last weekend: Upper Ebor Falls - Lower Ebor Falls - East Tamworth in the foreground, looking towards Calala and over the Peel Valley. The large white building in the centre middle part of the picture is the Australian Equine and Livestock Events Centre, the biggest in the Southern Hemisphere - Central and South Tamworth - West Tamworth, Westdale, and looking out towards the Airport - The Big Golden Guitar in Tamworth. It is the 'Country Music Capital of Australia'. The Australian Country Music Awards are held annually in January at the nearby Entertainment Centre at the end of the Tamworth Country Music Festival (which runs for about 10 days) - The Upper Peel Valley from Hanging Rock Lookout -

Seven News story this evening on the tornadoes around the border of NSW/VIC: http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJnatLm5g2U Footage of one of the tornadoes near Yarrawonga (from a bit of a distance):

Hey Styx, I'm going well. Hope all is good down in Tassie. The risk of cyclones is infrequent enough on the north coast that there is not a designated cyclone plan in place. I imagine the SES / Emergency Services would take similar precautions to other severe events like East Coast Lows which has similar effects to a weak tropical cyclone, but the precautions would probably be intensified if we were at risk of a Category 2 or 3 cyclone. Although last month's subtropical low, was probably a good 'test run' for emergency services, with winds of 90-125km/h along the coast. Cape Byron's 126km/h gust in the subtropical low that made landfall late last month was pretty noteworthy, but I'm not aware of the max gust from a TC or Extratropical cyclone on the north coast. ~~~~ Supercells are reasonably common in Australia, more-so in New South Wales, Victoria, and the southeastern quarter of Queensland, even then a fair number go unreported thanks to Australia's generally urbanised population. On that note, parts of northern Victoria / far southern NSW around the Yarrawonga region experienced several confirmed tornadoes this evening. Severe storms have affected parts of northern VIC and southern NSW this evening: Already a short video uploaded of one of the tornadoes: http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=83JaolExJvU Another video on public Facebook account: http://www.facebook....151309246450588 Could be more videos surface over the next couple of days, although it did hit around dusk/nightfall. Tomorrow, well technically 'today' as it is 3am (I'm a uni student so my sleeping patterns are wack, lol), severe storms are possible over central NSW. On Saturday, the possibility of severe storms looks like moving into northern NSW (but forecast high cloud could potentially inhibit convection). Haven't heard thunder for almost a month now, thanks to being more-or-less stuck in a SE'ly regime, so hoping Mother Nature brings a bit of stormy weather. The 'Severe Storm Season' traditionally comes to a finish at the end of March. Not that Mother Dearest always follows the script, e.g. Sydney Hailstorm of April 1999 http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6AoXkN7tRQ

Not that it covers the entire heatwave period, but can definitely see the heatwave's effects Styx. Impressive Max temp anomalies over the past week in Victoria, Tasmania and southern South Australia. The Otway Ranges area has a max temp anomaly of 12ºC+!: Tropical Cyclone Sandra is currently sitting off the New South Wales coast, and is expected to affect Lord Howe Island (http://en.wikipedia....ord_Howe_Island) as a Category Two cyclone. Sandra won't bother us on the mainland, but we're overdue for a tropical cyclone impact here on the north coast, so a reminder that these TCs can survive at these latitudes. It is not common for a TC for affect here, but it does happen. The last TC to directly affect here was TC Nancy in 1990 which was a Category Two. I have marked my location as a small blue dot, to the north of Port Macquarie. This afternoon's forecast track map for TC Sandra: Latest synoptic to put Sandra's position in perspective:

Happy 100th to Canberra. Established on March 12th 1913. http-~~-//www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-n22q6lIbY

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Mar 3rd - 19.0ºC/25.9ºC - E 41km/h @ 9:04pm - 11.0mm Mar 4th - 20.5ºC/24.4ºC - ESE 48km/h @ 12:16pm - 0.6mm Mar 5th - 20.8ºC/26.1ºC - ESE 39km/h @ 4:35am - Nil Mar 6th - 18.9ºC/25.7ºC - SE 35km/h @ 7:23pm - Nil Mar 7th - 17.7ºC/25.8ºC - SSE 28km/h @ 11:26am - 0.4mm Mar 8th - 17.6ºC/25.0ºC - E 30km/h @ 6:53pm - 1.0mm Mar 9th - 18.9ºC/26.0ºC - SE 33km/h @ 3:26pm - 0.2mm Past week: An area of high pressure sat over the Tasman Sea all week directing a weak onshore airstream onto the coast (stronger on the 3rd) bringing cloud and the odd light shower. A mild to warm week overall. The webcam looks like it has been put back online again after going down in that later half of February. Webcam images at midday for the past week, and an almost cloud-free sky during the late afternoon of the 6th: This week (Mar 10th to Mar 16th): A high in the Tasman Sea should continue to push a weak onshore airstream onto the coast, with a low to moderate chance of a shower until Wednesday. During Wednesday and into Thursday, the high centred over the Tasman Sea should move eastwards to New Zealand instead, causing the weak onshore flow to cease. It should be fine on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Saturday is looking mostly fine at this stage, maybe a late SE'ly surge bringing a shower or two. It should be a warm week, with maximums slightly above average. Minimums should stay around average. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Saturday): 27 / 26 / 26 / 27 / 26 / 28 Next update will probably come in a fortnight, as I'm going on a short holiday next weekend. Visiting relatives for a few days in Kootingal (near Tamworth).

Wouldn't mind some heat and dry air up here Styx, would be glad to take it off your hands. The soil is super-saturated here and could do with some heat and/or dry air. We had 21 consecutive raindays between February 12th and March 4th (inclusive), which brought a total of 469mm.

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Feb 24th - 20.9ºC/26.8ºC - N 39km/h @ 9:43am - 18.8mm Feb 25th - 21.5ºC/26.1ºC - NE 39km/h @ 4:51am - 0.8mm Feb 26th - 20.8ºC/26.8ºC - NE 50km/h @ 8:33am - 3.0mm Feb 27th - 18.8ºC/26.6ºC - NE 41km/h @ 12:25pm - 1.4mm Feb 28th - 20.0ºC/27.5ºC - NNE 52km/h @ 4:09pm - 0.2mm Mar 1st - 22.0ºC/23.4ºC - N 31km/h @ 12:20am - 28.0mm Mar 2nd - 19.0ºC/23.6ºC - E 39km/h @ 5:21pm - 70.2mm Past week: Drier than last week but still wet! The onshore flow weakened during the 25th to 28th. A trough moved into eastern NSW on the 28th, the trough produced extensive rain across much of the inland of the state thanks to being able to tap into tropical moisture. An upper low formed in the trough on the 1st, enhancing rainfall on the 2nd as it stalled in the region with heavy rain during the early evening. Temperatures were about normal for most of the week, until the two cooler days on the 1st and 2nd. Despite rain being lighter than the subtropical low last week and Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald at the end of January, it was still enough to cause renewed flooding in the river valleys, mainly minor to moderate flooding. The river catchments are absolutely saturated. The subtropics of the East Coast would like some drier weather please! This week (Mar 3rd to Mar 9th): The trough has now weakened, but a moist onshore flow still persists thanks to a high off the east coast of Tasmania. Some showers should persist through today (although we seem to have dodged them all so far today), easing to a few showers tomorrow. On Tuesday, the onshore flow should weaken somewhat. From Tuesday through until Friday, there is the chance of a shower each day in a weak onshore flow, but it should remain mostly fine. The current high pressure is expected to slowly move across the Tasman Sea to New Zealand by Friday. It should be replaced by another high in the Tasman Sea, depending on the movement of this new high, the flow may possibly strengthen slightly allowing for a shower or two on Saturday. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Saturday): 24 / 25 / 25 / 26 / 25 / 25 It looks like Mother Nature could be settling into a quieter period of weather, after an action-packed six weeks. But it can fairly dynamic at this time of year so forecasts beyond the short-term are difficult (well, I suppose a bit more predictable than the tropics at least). I must say the Bureau did a reasonable job with their summer rainfall prediction: Edit: Thought this might be of interest. Pictures from the local newspaper of last weekend's major flood here in the Kempsey / Macleay area. Various photos from Kempsey / the Macleay of the flood (28 slides) - http://www.macleayar...amblyn/?cs=1778 (Slide 15 is taken from what will we be Australia's longest bridge when it opens as part of the Kempsey Bypass later this month or next month. It is 3.2kms long) Kempsey town - Showing the breach of the (less important) northern levee, and the subsequent minor inundation of the CBD area (24 slides): http://www.macleayar...empsey/?cs=1778 (had the southern levee broke, there would have been moderate to major inundation of the CBD) Update of current flood situation following the rain in the past two days.: currently causing moderate flooding at Kempsey / Lower Macleay, with the river expected to peak at 6.0m this evening and stay around that level for 12 hours.

Yer, luckily the subtropical low largely slipped inbetween Sydney and Brisbane. Would have been pretty chaotic if either metropolitan area had received a direct hit. Floodwaters have receded enough overnight to allow the South West Rocks Road to be reopened, so we're no longer isolated. The South West Rocks Road is open with extreme caution between here and Kempsey due to water on edges of road and severe potholing and edge damage. The Pacific Highway (the main highway connecting Sydney and Brisbane) is still closed between Kempsey and Clybucca. The smaller communities of Hat Head and Crescent Head are still isolated. For the second month in a row, the Kempsey Shire has been declared a Natural Disaster Zone (was declared a NDZ last month after Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald). Even with a couple of days of February left, we've already had our wettest Jan-Feb period on record with 757.8mm falling (beating the previous record of 666.1mm in Jan-Feb 1959). We've also had our third wettest summer on record with 842.4mm falling. Only as much as 5-10mm is possible before the end of the month, so it is guaranteed to be a bit shy of the second wettest summer in 1955/56 (890.8mm) and the wettest summer in 1958/59 (909.2mm).

Pretty amazing rainfall when you think of it. Mt Seaview is in an area where rainfall is orographically enhanced by the sudden rise in elevation from the coastal plain. There are several other areas in the region that get orographic enhancement of rain in certain weather setups (usually when rainfall is pushed ashore), including Dorrigo where the land suddenly rises from about 50m up to 750-1000m along a steep escarpment. For the year to date, Mt Seaview has already had 1384mm and Dorrigo 1139.7mm (compared to 738.2mm here for the year to date). Dorrigo is about 70kms NNW of here, and Mt Seaview is around 100kms SW of here. Dorrigo National Park is a part of the Gondwana Rainforests of Australia World Heritage Area, some Google images of the area: http://www.google.co...iw=1366&bih=673Major flooding is continuing and we are still isolated today. The river at Kempsey has only just dropped a couple of centimetres below major flood level (currently 6.57m), nearly 12 hours after it peaked at 7.1m (which was a bit lower than expected), but it was still high enough to breach the one of the levees for a period of time and by reports there has only been minor flooding in the CBD, with very little damage. The main levee held, and has spared the CBD from moderate to major inundation. News Article summarising the latest: ~~~~~ Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Feb 17th - 17.6ºC/26.0ºC - SSE 44km/h @ 5:07pm - 9.0mm Feb 18th - 17.5ºC/25.0ºC - S 26km/h @ 10:58am - 27.0mm Feb 19th - 19.6ºC/24.4ºC - SW 30km/h @ 3:13am - 15.0mm Feb 20th - 20.2ºC/24.7ºC - S 65km/h @ 4:50pm - 28.2mm Feb 21st - 21.4ºC/25.0ºC - SSE 70km/h @ 2:01pm - 38.8mm Feb 22nd - 20.2ºC/24.1ºC - S 98km/h @ 3:29pm - 131.6mm Feb 23rd - 19.8ºC/26.5ºC - E 69km/h @ 5:19am - 28.0mm Past week: The wet weather persisted all week. A low developed off the southern Queensland coast earlier in the week, and hovered some distance off the coast of Brisbane / Gold Coast before moving towards the north coast of New South Wales where it made landfall late on the 22nd. The subtropical low brought widespread heavy falls to the north coast and severe winds. This week (Feb 24th to Mar 2nd): Humid today with a few quick showers this morning, which makes today our 13th consecutive day of rain. At 4:04pm, it was 26.0ºC with a dew point of 23.7ºC (87% humidity, yuk!). An approaching upper level trough tonight is likely to increase showers in the onshore airstream during tomorrow with possible moderate falls. A few showers look likely on Tuesday, mainly in the morning, even though the onshore flow weakens a bit. On Wednesday, the onshore flow is expected to weaken further and the upper level trough enhancing the showers will have moved out to sea, bringing only a lingering light shower or two. Thursday could see a new trough enter the region with a shower or two possible, potentially increasing to a few showers on Friday. The trough should clear on Saturday with a mostly fine and dry day expected at this stage. Bureau's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Saturday): 26 / 25 / 26 / 26 / 25 / 26

A powerful low pressure system has wreaked havoc across the region. Floodwaters isolated the town here about 12 hours ago. Major flooding is expected along the Macleay River and with a predicted peak of near 7.3m upstream in Kempsey, which would mean the levee will be overtopped and flood the Central Business District there. Two people have been killed so far in the region, one near Port Macquarie (to the south) and near Grafton (to the north). Towns/village between here and Kempsey (including Smithtown/Gladstone) were evacuated today. The region experienced rainfall totals as high as 415mm in 24 hours (Mt Seaview recording 415mm in the 24hrs to 9am Saturday). Most places in the region received between 120-300mm in the 24hrs to 9am Saturday. This rain follows fairly widespread cumulative totals of 100-200mm in the 9 to 10 days beforehand, and the very heavy rain from Ex-Tropical Cyclone Oswald near the end of last month. Winds as high as 126km/h were officially recorded in the region, with widespread winds of 90-100km/h. A reasonable amount of tree damage around town, plenty of branches down and some trees too. We lost power for several hours last night as the winds peaked. A number of residents across the district are still without power. Seven News report from this evening (Saturday evening): Currently being kept awake by a thunderstorm sitting a couple of kilometres off the coast.

The Bureau are confident that this low could bring significant rainfall to this part of the coast over the next few days. This afternoon they issued a Significant Media Release: EDIT: Probably worth noting there is still considerable differences in precipitation predicted by the main and most reliable models (GFS, EC and ACCESS-R). There was a lot of agreement early today and yesterday of a heavy rain event, but disagreement has returned today. GFS is going for a light rain event, EC a moderate rain event, and ACCESS-R a heavy rain event. The less reliable models, CMC and ACCESS-G, continue to support a heavy rain event. It should become clearer by tomorrow night about what is going to happen.

Summary here over the past week (Date/Min/Max/MaxWindGustDirectionSpeed&Time/24hrRainfall): Feb 10th - 20.1ºC/29.8ºC - NNE 52km/h @ 1:34pm - Nil Feb 11th - 19.1ºC/27.8ºC - E 24km/h @ 3:01pm - Nil Feb 12th - 17.8ºC/27.2ºC - SE 61km/h @ 9:05pm - 0.4mm Feb 13th - 19.5ºC/26.3ºC - SSE 41km/h @ 9:46am - 2.0mm Feb 14th - 18.1ºC/23.3ºC - WSW 35km/h @ 9:57am - 13.0mm Feb 15th - 17.9ºC/26.3ºC - WSW 26km/h @ 8:29am - 28.8mm Feb 16th - 19.0ºC/24.7ºC - WSW 33km/h @ 6:18am - 13.2mm Past week: An onshore airstream became established along the coast thanks to a high moving into the Tasman Sea. A trough developed offshore during the 14th, which enhanced the onshore flow over the next couple of days bringing brief moderate to heavy falls in the occasional showers. A brief thundery shower occurred on the night of the 16th. Midday images for the week, and an example of an onshore shower on the 15th enhanced by the presence of a trough near the coast: This week (Feb 17th to Feb 23rd): A high in the Tasman Sea will continue to direct onshore winds onto the coast at least through today and tomorrow, with occasional showers as a result, possibly briefly moderate to heavy thanks to the presence of the trough offshore. Later on tomorrow, all indications are a low pressure system will form off the southern Queensland coast in the Coral Sea and it should begin to influence our weather from Tuesday. Where it will travel after formation is still unclear, a number of scenarios have been modelled. Whether it makes landfall on the NSW coast, or stays out at sea parallel to the NSW coast, or how far away from the NSW coast the centre of the low will be, will have a large bearing on the weather we experience for the remainder of the week and could literally make the difference between 5-10mm and 50-75mm falling here between Tuesday and Saturday! It is expected that there should be a continuation of generally mild conditions this week, overall cooler than usual for February. The BOM's forecast max temps for the next 6 days (Tomorrow to Saturday): 25 / 24 / 24 / 24 / 24 / 27