[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

1 minute ago, Paul said:

I agree that the matrix is an important part of the warnings. But, I'm wondering whether you're more highlighting an issue in the communication of the warnings and the matrix system itself, rather than anything else. I mean, if so many people aren't reading the warnings properly and potentially misunderstanding them, is it their fault or the warning's fault?

A warning ought to be as crystal clear as possible from the headline really, if you need to delve into the inner workings to see what's going on, I'm not sure that's ideal. 

Not Meto bashing by the way, as it's a difficult thing to get right, but the one thing a warning system ought not to be (imo) is confusing. 

I totally agree - I'm sure it's only weather geeks like us who bother even to look at the matrix. I have mentioned on this group before that I find the warnings map very confusing and hard to use and making that more user friendly might help. Do we need a weather early warning system by text (one that works)? 

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

I think the issue is that we get so many yellow warnings now people pretty much ignore them. If an amber warning can encourage people to take the weather seriously - securing things like trampolines which are likely to cause a hazard, doing any emergency home maintenance which might avoid serious damage, and most importantly keeping themselves safe - then surely that can only be a good thing. Admittedly here in my corner of Kent we have seen more damage and disruption in recent years under some yellow warnings than we did under last night's amber, but that's not something that can always be predicted in advance and in this case all the indications were that this could well be an extremely nasty storm for most of the UK.  The MetOffice have to be cautious where people's lives and homes are potentially at risk.

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's normally a 2 hour flight and they're now approaching 4 hours in the air.

Words could not describe how happy I am not to be on that plane.

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

1 minute ago, StingJet said:

12z Fax .. 

 

Is this in line with expectations? (Sorry, am not great at interpreting the fax charts)

 

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

4 minutes ago, HellItsHot said:

Why anyone would object to weather warnings because of  political correctness’ or any other such nonsense is quite the mystery. 

Probably the same people who would have objected to the introduction of seatbelts on the grounds of wanting the personal freedom to be thrown through the windscreen

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

Just now, Rush2019 said:

I read it as just a rain warning for Cheshire, my area too.  I'm easily confused, or is it not clear.  

The MetOffice warning maps are ridiculously confusing IMO, especially when there are several out at the same time covering different types of weather. Surely they could come up with something better given their importance? 

[Storm Isha, Amber ⚠️]

10 minutes ago, Ross90 said:

Most of their warnings recently have been excessive or premature. It has been an average storm season but we're somehow likely to be on 10 after this week...

To be honest their last storm warning for severe winds came too late, at least here in the South East where thousands of commuters were stranded in the evening after train services were suspended due to fallen trees on the railway lines. If they'd put out an Amber warning a day or so beforehand I suspect many people would have arranged to work from home that day. So maybe they are erring on the side of caution this time. 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

34 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

No mate, I was saying what the operations were showing which not a prediction of what is going to happen. It's too early to make any prediction so my posts are just speculation / objective analysis of conditions not definitive forecast anyone with any inkling in meteorology would know that. So was the 20cm based on one ecm run was not any sort of prediction.

I predicted 2-7cm for West Kent during the event just gone.

To be fair at my location in West Kent we would have had that had it settled - snowfall was quite intense for a while. Presumably that was because the ground was so sodden from previous rainfalls but that won’t be a problem next week.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, DJ Fart said:

Ha ha ha! Make your mind up! 

Snow is one of the trickiest forms of weather to forecast accurately from hour to hour, but good on Kasim for admitting he may have got it wrong on this occasion - would that some of the other rutting male egos on Netweather forums (Model Discussion Forum, I'm looking at you!) followed his example.  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

19 minutes ago, Tom Quintavalle said:

No offence throwoff but to my untrained eye, the following expected Radar returns, will have this about right.

FWIW, I think the amount of Snowfall seen has been, has roughly been what was expected, and apart from perhaps a light Snow Shower, I wouldn't expect a lot more, now.

Below, is a link to the Dutch Radar Website [Buienradar]

 

Buienradar.nl - Buienradar.nl - Weer - Actuele neerslag, weerbericht, weersverwachting, sneeuwradar en satellietbeelden

WWW.BUIENRADAR.NL

---

Actuele buienradar en actueel weer voor Nederland en Europa, actuele satellietbeelden, actuele temperaturen, neerslag, en veel meer!

Well that's the theory, TSMWK but I stand to be corrected and of course, hope I'm wrong, 

Just saw a Forecast from Chris Fawkes, there was a definite reduction in Shower activity as we go through the Afternoon.

Of course the Wintry Ppn we are seeing currently was due to the interaction between those -12c 850's and the  +8c temps over the Southern North Sea, a few hours ago. With a reduction in those 840's, you should see a resulting reduction in Shower activity, as we go through the Afternoon. There was also a bit of convergence going on, as well.

The rest of the Week for our Region now looks dry but remaining cold, with some Frost and Fog about at Night.

Then next Week, another surge of Cold air is expected from the North but that's not a great direction for Snow, for our Region.

Our best chance of seeing Snow could come from a disturbance in the flow, running down from the North, or perhaps courtesy of an area of Low Pressure attempting to move in from the S.W,, and riding up against the entrenched Cold air, with an initial period of Snow but this is usually a temporary affair, with the milder air usually winning out.

But as I'm due to start a course of Radiotherapy at Sidcup, in a ferw Weeks time and am concerned how road conditions will be like at that time, it/s S--s Law, we are in for a severe spell of Wintry Weather!!

Regards,

Tom Q. 

All the very best, Tom and lots of luck with your treatment

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just now, steveinsussex said:

Blue sky here now

We had that about 20 minutes ago but it’s vanished now and snow is starting to fall - keep the faith!

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

I take it all back, it’s proper snow now and starting to settle on the ground 

 

 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

High excitement here now - just look at it piling up!

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Not sure whether we just saw sleet or snow here in West Kent - it left the lightest of dustings on top of our car. It’s very dark and miserable out there….EDIT: more incoming now

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

7 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

So the ECM has a day 10 chart where Greenland heights have just established yet seem to be on the move West 24 hours later. On the other hand uppers are moving South but even at day 10 they are not cold enough for snow. But wait its dry anyway so we needn't worry about any of that lol  

Folks I thought the ecm was showing a stunner of a 240hrs chart 2 days ago. Shouldn't that now be moving to 192 hrs rather than staying at 240?

Sorry but I'm not convinced about long term cold. The Met have it spot on, cold and dry...

That is at odds with what the MetO is actually saying on its longer-term forecast which mentions the possibility of snow several times - indeed it even mentions that snow showers could develop in its forecast up to 18 January.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Not sure if it's the odd flake of snow I'm seeing or if a particularly large droplet of rainwater is being dislodged by the fierce wind! - it's really horrible out there.....

 

Edit: Definitely the very odd flake of snow mixed in. I'm amazed it's cold enough

 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

Can I just say, this special snow-dedicated thread for all members has been a brilliant idea? From a personal point of view, though I don't have any snow now it's great to hear from those who have been more fortunate this time round and to be able to access that all in one place rather than having to dip in and out of the various regional threads. Also really appreciating the more congenial atmosphere compared to the MOD forum - where model ignorance makes me too scared to comment. I know I won't get shot down in here! Anyway, am genuinely happy for those who have got plenty of the white stuff on the ground today (though possibly I wouldn't have been if I hadn't already had a week's lying snow in December) - stay safe, everyone! And hopefully we will all be back here again before March is over.

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

17 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Well, the snow seems to have arrived, settled, then broken down with a thaw setting in, and now mild air is knocking on the door all in the space of 12 hours. Never used to happen like this 20 years ago.

To be fair we had lying snow on the ground for over a week in December - and I do remember times in the past, when spring was just around the corner, when fairly intense snowfall was followed by a very swift melt. I have a feeling this happened in April 2006

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Quite heavy snow here now in Tunbridge Wells but it does not appear to be settling at all and the roads and pavements are wet. Just goes to show how hard snow is to predict as a few hours ago this wasn't forecast

 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

If anyone is planning on travelling up to London on the Hastings-Charing Cross line this morning, there are currently no trains due to a tree on the line. Still snowing lightly here in TW - sad to think there is rain on the way soon. But a big surprise in March to wake up to quite a bit of settling snow

[It's snowing! Your reports & pics.]

It is snowing here in Tunbridge Wells - settling on cars and a bit on paths from what I can see

 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Sleeting gently here in Tunbridge Wells. I can hardly contain my excitement. But hopefully we in the SE are in with a chance of something - which would be better than nothing at this point 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

More than enough for a decent-sized snowman so we're happy! He is quite camp, or should I say gender-fluid? Predictably we've decided to call him Noel.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

1 minute ago, Gowon said:

For those of you reporting snow, are you sure it's not blowing off your roofs or trees?

Definitely snow falling from the sky but we are talking a very few flakes! Just wondered if it was going to intensify at any point.

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Good to be back in this group after a few years' absence....

Is anyone else seeing unforecast snow right now? - we have a few flakes coming down in Tunbridge Wells to add to the sizeable dumping we got last night and the sky has that ominous look. The MetO did have a warning up earlier but removed it, and there is nothing on the radar - just shows how hard it is to forecast.