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garbagebags

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Everything posted by garbagebags

  1. Substantial downgrade in temps as winds swing from NW to W
  2. My thoughts exactly. A lot flatter. T850's not suffering yet. I fear they will though...
  3. It going to be weird going from a chilly Thursday to a positively warm Firday. (Just a little something while we wait...)
  4. How rare is it to have at least 4 models in complete agreement at day 7? Is that not fairly rare?
  5. I've been saying for weeks that the raging PV since start October has been a good thing. Now at least we have decent cold to unleash.
  6. No doubt the models are showing cold. Can someone tell me how much precipitation they are likely to carry?
  7. Well we certainly have model agreement. Thats a healthy start. Now comes the nail biting ride down to +72.
  8. We aren't obsessed with snow in November. We are obsessed with snow! Nobody cares what month it is except you. Who cares how rare it is? We are watching the models and excited because they are showing encouraging signs. It would be the same if we lived in Dubai and it was July. It doesn't matter what month it is one jot.
  9. Pah, you might get cold rain. Im getting bags o snow!
  10. So, even the "pub run" is as reliable as the other 3? I was led to believe it used less data?
  11. Which is considered the most accurate GFS run, the 00z, the 06z or the 12z ?
  12. The chances of that chart verifying, given it's 15 days away, is slim to say the least. For all we know we could be having a strong North-Easterly flow by then I agree. To get upset at FI is even more bonkers than getting excited by it. People should stick to +192hrs or less. (sometimes I actually wish they would bin the FI part of the run. It's really not very helpful.)
  13. At this time of year, yes of course people and georaphically split. People in Aviemore have a good shout with getting snow. People in Cornwall have no chance. So IMBY's are magnified towards the end of Autumn. Try and not think about whether you will get snow or not, and just be happy for the pattern change. Thats why people are excited. Not because of where the -5 line lies.
  14. Yeah most definitely. A block could form, I'm just not seeing it yet. I do hope so though.
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