garbagebags

I just hope that this little low pocket that apeared on the ECM and now METO doesnt develop into something stronger. In which case we may only have cold for 1 day because although we do have a high in the Atlantic, with the greatest respect to it, it is a pretty feeble high and it would take much at all to destroy it. Ooft. She's a cracker

It does look like a great wee spell coming. But to be fair it will be rather, if not very, short lived.

Not to mention "The beast from the East" last December... On of the GFS's darkest moments. Thats was 72hrs out. Then nothing...

Don't want to be a party pooper but should individual frames way out in FI not really be posted in the ramping thread?

00z and 06z are twins in high res.

But arent the AO and NAO graphs produced from info taken from the model runs? They don't come before the models, they come after.

I think "rampant zonality" is a bit harsh, sure the cold will dissapear but all the FI charts are producing anything but rampant zonality.

Looking nice across all models this morning both for cold snap next week, and generally long range PV stuff too (technical term).

Not true. You could see decent snowfall to low levels with the cold front pushing through on monday. Could even be heavy. I would call that more than remotely wintry.

Is it wrong that I prefer a NW wind to a NE wind? Where did I get that from? It's just that easterlies have never produced for me.

* Garbage bags the ECM is not toppling- Its going exactly to plan with the ridge across to scand which will then allow the retrograde back NW as the next low moves into Scandi- * Happy days- do you insist on posting stuff to wind people up- people we need to change your name to miserable .......... ECM 240 shows a clasic reloading pattern for day 12- sadly most of the pessimists on here cant see further than the end of their nose. S Just because it topples into a good location doesnt mean it doesnt topple. Im sorry but for what we were hoping might become a greenland high, it has toppled.

ECM toppling too now. Still a good 4 days next week

Not to worry...

I think we just have to come to terms with the fact that although it's going to be cold, even bitter. Its going to be very short lived. People say look for trends. Well the overriding trend is that this high will topple almost immediately.

Basically the signals in terms of us changing pattern are excellent. FI is consistently good.The actual cold coming next week itself has been downgraded somewhat.

Oh you don't need to tell me that. It's a nightmare. I just cant take down grading, I watch every frame as it comes out next to previous run and check every minute change in pressure and temp. Looking for changes. ...ive even been known to have a ruler up to the screen....

For purely selfish reasons. I have no interest in an Easterly. Last year we didn't have a single falling flake here after 7th December. And Easterlies were the reason.

Well deep down we are all praying the high upgrades to a greenland block. Hopes of that are looking slimmer by the day. Thats why the negativity.

I'm sorry for this negativity but that's an appalling run. What it does show is that (and lets be honest, this is the trend) We don't have a Block, and we aren't going to get a block. Sure a day or two of slightly below average temps, maybe a dusting for Scotland. But we most definitely are not blocked. Doesn't really look like that is going to change.

Much lower heights over Greenland though. Causing things to topple very very quickly.

The cold was most definitely present in the high res on the previous 18z, 12z, 06z, and 00z I would have called that a trend?

Oh dear. Is it just me but is the GFS 00z utterly dire. Refusing to build heights in North Atlantic, cold all but gone in high res

We are going into the freezer next week.

Pretty much a perfect conclusion there.

Whats the craziest model run anyone has ever seen. As in, compared to the previous run, completely different. Have they ever been broken with crazy readings?