Gavin Hannah

At t.96 on the 12Z and it looks like the next 3 - 4 days will deff feel more seasonal. the nth hemisphere is looking a right mess at the momemt. By the time we get to t.120, the ridging to the north has a much different profile compared with 06Z. What will it lead to..?

I have aquired a new snowboard today so there had better be some damn snow soon!

Ok I think the 3 of the last 4 GFS outputs have shown a pattern change of sorts the closer we get to the big day. I think the 18Z was still going for the mild south westerly solution whereas yesterdays 06Z to this mornings 00Z have show possibly something much more seasonal and wintry ahead. Each has taken a slightly different track to get there and the outcome is different in terms of wintry weather but would it be fair to say there is a pattern change coming? The result of which is still to be decided, or do we need more runs similar to the 06, 12 and this mornings 00z?

Im heartened to see the gfs 12z output was a significant 'upgrade' to the 06z. Despite the ECM going a different route, i'm not surprised. Whe was the last time we say any models agree out at the 240? Hopefully the GFS is on to something as a I saw mentioned that other models were hinting at something similar. C'mon God of Winter... don't let us down!!

Is there something brewing in the GFS cauldron.... this would produce some insane amounts of snow at the "battleground" mark. The key difference between the 06Z and this is the strength of the low of Scandi. It's more organised and a single low rather than two cluster lows.

Woah... that's a disagreement and a half!

At 1.135. It does seem that HP off the west is more pronounced than in the 06Z and occupying more space inbetween the lows. t.150 and that low in the Atlantic is centered much further south than in the 06Z. Could be a key factor in the FI portion of the run.

I'm adding this to the Squirrels and Nuts theory lol.... All I will say is that we aren't too far off of 2009 territory if you're looking for "signs"....

Would happilly take the 06Z all the way to Xmas with the minor change to the last 48 hours of the output. Would like to see the HP cell rotate, around it's southern tip towards Scandi if it MUST move, rather than simply fade away...

They're not showing it... Yet... I seem to remember the GFS doing better than then ECM in recent winters with the ECM the one to usually throw out the golden FI charts before changing it's mind. And wasn't the GFS normally skewed to favour the westerlies???

Woah, that is an outlier and a half lol.... I think i've seen models disagree as close as 5 days away, so this could be an interesting period of model watching. Daaammmnnn!

Wouldn't it be funny if the GFS was the only one that got it right lol....

I like to ref Dec 2009, I don't think anyone saw that coming until very near the time. From memory, it had been wet and windy up to that point so yeah, models are good in the short term but longer term is still not written off by any stretch of the imagination. If we get to a week out from Xmas and it's showing mild mush, then I will accept that a white Xmas is looking unlikely. From what I've been reading, most of the knowledgeable folks are punting for a Cold and Wintry Jan/Feb so perhaps a chance of something more like 2010/11? And while it's dissapointing when Xmas day turns out to be 10 degrees and wet, 2009 I think, was a rare oddity. Emphasis on 'rare'. My experience would lead me to suggest that the UK is always a month behind in terms of "seasonal weather" because of our location, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility, it's just harder to come by events like 2009/10 & 2010/11.... Also, the north of the UK does better than down here in the south just by the nautre of being 'the north'. Anyway, still a week from December so I will not be getting to disheartened just yet.

Nah, what we need is this.

Is this deep enough???

3 months of blizzards, drifts and sub zero temperatures. What else?

Oooh, I hope someone doest setupt thousands of fake twitter accounts and post #uksnow on each one lol

Came across this site which monitors #uksnow on twitter to show live where it is snowing in the UK. http://uksnowmap.com/ Kind want to put up a fake tweet to see if actually works as I don't think it's snowing anywhere atm lol.

Depends on your deffinition of huge, by comparisson to some Hurricanes and tropical monsoons, a stiff gale and a few chimney pots blown over is like comparing a sardine to a salmon...weird conotation there lol... However, I do like your suggestion.. Storm Abigail was a crap name for a storm..."oooh its got the syllable "gail" in it..." pfft.. And dont get me started on Storm Purple Dinosaur.. I think the next storm should be called Storm "Apocalypse Now"

Impressive Ice growth towards Iceland and more snow in the UK than on the Alps..... Very interresting.

Well woke up to wet and windy conditions today with it seemingly turning very autumnal over night with a lot of leaves blown down. It's going to have to be some switch over night if we are going to get this "Halloween heatwave"

As much as I would hate to see that come to fruition, I wouldn't be surprised. That big puddle to our left can be a right pain in the A*£$ some times and just a big party pooper!

How very odd...

ROFL, I shudder at the thought of what that Winter would look like..

Is this being touted as the strongest storm ever? Or the strongest Hurricane ever? Do we get stronger storms than hurricane cat 5s?