Gavin Hannah
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Posts posted by Gavin Hannah
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If the atlantic is to drop down a gear heading in to the uk in the upcoming outputs,could the forcasts for the next say 72hrs change again.I dont mean raging easterly,just more of a easterly wind direction.
theoretically, it could go a completely different direction from now but is very unlikely. 72 hours is pretty close. I certainly haven't seen any major divergence that close to t.0..
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Just thought I would throw Joe Bastadi's opinion into the mix regarding the ECM Monthlies.
Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate flooriJust got a look at the new ECMWF monthlies. If true, this will be the coldest winter in Europe overall since at least the 1980s.
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I hate to say it, but I think we are going to have to endure a couple of weeks of failed attempts of Easterly becoming established. I do think it's going to be more cold than mild on average and with the mobile outlook, very wet, and perhaps snowy on the high ground. All we need is one of these lows to undercut and it's game on.
I prefer the 18Z run with a cooler outlook which will give us some snow events.
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Worth also mentioning that based on the past sometimes an E,ly does not always arrive on the first attempt when you have a block to the E. I do recall a few occasions when I experienced a spell of frosts followed by a brief milder spell before the snowy E,lys arrive.
Very impressive how a deep low of 955mb is sent packing by none other than the GFS.
Im going to say it now this isn't game over. The milder spell could yet prove only brief.
It is a colder output for sure. Mostly under to 0 line. The high ground could get a snowy pasting.
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Haha, it looks like are only salvation lies in FI land... apart from those interesting storm features, nothing to shout about for us coldies. Loving the "Tornado".
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More a channel hurricane! now we know that the gfs winds up these little features only to downgrade them nearer the time, so I think it's a good thing and mean that the gfs wants to be too progressive?
Perhaps a channel tornado!
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It's going for an undercut!
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The good thing about the 18Z run is that we remain under the 0deg dam line with a lot more cooler air to tap into rather than mild air being drawn up from the south. A definite cooler run so far.
The UK is lining up to be in the middle of the mother of all battleground scenarios!
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Ok, so it looks like heading north and getting stuck off our west coast. Check out the Isobars on this image over Greenland.
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It looks like we could be set for a big storm if this Low gets any deeper...... and if it moves south and east, it could bring in a trailing front of snow. All in all, i would say its game over for the Beasterly this time round. (Egg on the face of the Daily Express again lol) But this storm could bring in some really wintry conditions as passes by.
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Could this be the turning point?
It depends on what happens at around t.96. That's round about when the Low really winds up on the past few runs. It's starting to deepen earlier and further out west than on the 12Z.
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At t.63 on the 18Z and that Low to our west is slightly further north and west. Cmon 18Z, lets have the good stuff tonight.
t.72 and the Azores has linked up with the Euro/scandi.
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Watch the price of snow shovels quadruple over the next week. 09/10 all over again.!
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Currently -2.1 here. I think the meto weather warning is fully justified.
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Severe weather warning from METO. Heavy snow on the way tonight from 0300. 5-10cm @ 200m+, 15-30cm @ 400m+.
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Ok, so I posted this over in the chat thread too. It is at t.192 but, it does have a flavor of 2010 about it.
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What I will also say is that IMO, the cold has been getting upgraded the closer we get to T.0. At least where I am, having watched the models lately, we seem to be getting slightly colder that forecast and more snow to lower levels than forecast.
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Looks like Europe will join Russia in the freezer-bear in mind these are projected maximum temps.
This just gives an idea what could well be coming on the Siberian Express.
You can definitely see and feel the buzz in the air as it looks like another stonking winte "could" be just around the corner. The past week and a half has given us a wee taster!
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Ok, so now i'm back after my month off and just to say, the setup is looking perfect. And with the MET looking towards an easterly even more, I'm def getting excited. So to the models, some very good reliable output on GFS with cold getting upgraded the closer we get to T.0. Very pleasing to see.
So while what I'm posting is just out of reliable range, it does have Dec 2010 written all over it and ties in with the METs toughts.
The ski resorts are open or opening up this week which is good news. Winters of 09/10' and 10/11' saw the resorts open before Xmas and stay open with very healthy snow cover which was a rare occurrance pre 2009. It looks like 12/13' is going to make it 3 out of the past 4.
The current snow and ice situation.
Ladies and gentlemen, we are looking so good right now. I would say it's time to strap in and enjoy the ride this winter. While I'm not going to predict Jan or Feb, I have been saying to everyone I know that this Dec is going to be cold and at times very snowy.
Another all white UK satellite snap this year??
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Scottish mountains are accumulating a decent cover with Cairngorm and Lecht ski centre's going for a Saturday opening. More frequent snow across Scotland overnight tonight with some down to low levels. I would go for a punt at 200m ASL.
Interesting to note that there is a brief westerly front blowing in from Sunday with the cold following back in from the N.West on Monday. Could bring some very good snow but as of yet, the BBC weather isn't modelling anything in that time frame. One to keep an eye out for.
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NH cover looking very good indeed. I think I've only been in here twice this month and the change looks dramatic indeed. Very positive stuff! Tomorrow marks the start of winter and I would guess that it's all looking good for a really good winter here in the UK.
Temps here have been below freezing for the past week and it looks like remaining cold for the next week at least on the models.
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I believe that the snow is making progress west. I have been deliberately been keeping away for a while and checking in periodically to see the progress being made. It makes for better viewing this way.
It's all looking good and the charts for the coming cool down look very promising.
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Because the models say so YEEE HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAh
Because Madden & laminate floori say so.
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Wish all this rain was snow
We've had so much rain that I'm actually mutating into a fish man!
Model Output Discussion - 8th December Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Having viewed the last few sets of GFS runs, it strikes me that it could go either way really. The prospect of an easterly really hangs on weather or no we get an undercutting low. The 18Z and 06Z both feature this with a mean little sucker crossing the channel then undercutting. This is one feature I will be keeping an eye out for.