Snow and storms
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Posts posted by Snow and storms
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Never seen anything this bad, it really feels like these are 80mph gusts at least, not sure why so low on xcweather
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Been bad here since this afternoon but things have just gone up another gear now. House rattling and hearing cranks and creaks with every gust. Conservatory flooded fence panels broken.
Took a drive earlier and saw that the garage roof at texaco had been ripped a new whole and lots of big building boarding panels snapped and thrown about in the road along with an army of darlicks (bins)
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Thats odd, when I look at the warnings map for Uk it shows south east and east under amber for wind and south west under yellow for wind http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings show
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the amber warning is for the south east for wind and rain, not south west
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Everyone who is reporting the incredible drops in pressure are forgetting about something, when you talk about a storm dropping 24mb in 24 hours they are talking about the centre of the low.
Everyone is measuring the pressure dropping from there stationary point which of course will drop faster because not only is the storm deepening but the lows centre is also moving closer so you will always get a much increased drop in pressure on top of a already bombing low.
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One thing I would like to add is how lucky we are forecast to be, having a 930mb system hitting us and reletively spread out isobars given the strength of the low pressure and jet stream.
This could easily have tightened up alot more on the forecasts and produced some record breaking winds. I hope I don't have to eat my words and the forecast is correct.
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The met office warnings are really dangerous. They have removed the wind warnings (I see they still include a warning in the text)
They have a wind of 79mph gusts in my area but you click on the wind warning icon in yellow and they only mention areas in the north.
They completely over hyped for the St Jude storm and completely under hyping this one which in my opinion is just dangerous.
No one knows whats coming because the news arn't all over it like a rash because the Met have been really slow with there warnings.
People are aware there is a bad bit of rain and wind coming but not to the extent which will most likely happen.
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Due to be up a scaffold fitting a 13m sign on Monday! Might have to re arrange.
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I am really confused still.
So this shortwave pops up on thursday in between stormy periods and the area around and behind the shortwave is colder than say further north where the wind is still feeding in and mixing out the colder air?
What causes this shortwave to suddenly appear?
sorry for being slow!
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Sky Full, I believe the models show extremes which they then back off from because it is similar to when you swing a pendulum.
In general when something is trying to find the correct solution to a given event it will go to both extremes i.e an extreme storm then the next model may show a weaker storm
then the actual solution will be somewhere down the middle. It is all to do with the forecast mathematics evening out to find the mean solution (in general)
However that always has the possibility to be proved wrong and occassionally go for the most extreme out put, but this is not common.
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As it stand at the moment I believe the Christmas eve/day storm is looking the most dangerous even though it is the furthest out.
Don't get me wrong they are all potent beasties but that one in particular has had both the cold and warm sectors dragged closer to the UK and together
by the previous lows. The huge block of cold shifting over Greenland is in a prime position to create a monster and if the track stays as it is which it probably won't (i hope)
the UK is going to get hit right down the middle in the most populated areas. Central England, London and anywhere south of that will get a total pasting along with some parts
slightly further north east as the storm tracks rapidly north east exiting the jet.
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Really howling in hastings. Back edge of the rain band has just passed through and it almost sounds worst than last mondays event.
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so are we right to think this system is developing deeper or more intense than forecast?
Anyone have any facts to back this up?
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The storm has a much nicer structure than Monday's. You can see a really clear defined circular rotation. Mondays was just a mess that never really formed together.
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I Also agre that it was GEM to first consistently bring last nights storm to everyones attention. I think the big 3 all hopped on board about the same time then GEM jumped ship (typical)
Has anyone got any info on what went wrong with the jet stream forecast, it was this that slowed the development down and downgraded it slightly in the early hours sat.
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Are we going to get a Squall line going over Hastings? has the worst gone now? probably nothing more than a 65mph gust at a guess so far
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Decent gusts here in Hastings. Can't see much outside but the sign over the road has snapped in two. expecting this to really ramp into overdrive in the next few hours
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Isle of Wight (Needles) just reported gust of 83mph!
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I still going by what I said earlier, I think due to the slowing of the storm exiting the jet, it will allow more time to deepen over the UK and give a more curved northly track than predicted and i believe that will in turn increase the wind speeds higher than predicted.
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Hastings steady rain occasionally heavy, gusting quite well.
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wind starting to ramp up here in Hastings on the ridge. Rain very steady. Looks as though there is slightly more rain on the radar than forecast?
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Why I think this storm will take a more northerly track as forecasted yesterday:
The storm is carried by the jet stream which has been forecasted as slightly weaker than what was expected yesterday.
It deepens rapidly (explosive cyclogenisis) when exiting the left side of the jet. A weaker jet will mean the storm will be
carried slightly slower, and be rotated slightly slower.
However what I think is not being taken into consideration is that the slower the storm rides, the earlier it will exit the jet
and begin it's rapid deepening. So by the time it is sitting bang over the UK (if it does) it will have had more time to deepen
and will travel in more of a curved northerly direction.
Yesterday the deepest pressure the storm made was sitting over the north sea as it exited the UK. I believe this will now be
transfered over the top of us. The slower rotation of the storm will mean it is slightly less intense but the exiting of the jet stream
earlier will probably even this effect out.
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This is a rough track I believe the storm will take, if anything maybe slightly more curved and northerly.
This is my own personal prediction and expect there is plenty of more experianced people out there that could prove this wrong.
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Just seems to me like 1987 is repeating it's self, the meto will probably turn round and say no to the storm tomorrow and then we all go to sleep and wake up with a roof ripping off at 3am.
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Thank you very much weathermaster, very helpful of someone to put together such a good summary.
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Severe Atlantic Storms over the Christmas & New Year period
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
The tides for Friday the 3rd look like causing a few problems... This is at a very high tide at 12pm.
and then again on the 5th-6th the UK gets swallowed by a hungry black hole monster, which will alos coincide with 2 very high tides.
Could be some record breaking wave heights off Ireland and exacerbated problems with the river tides being pushed even higher with torrential rain in places making for a nasty cocktail.