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Snow and storms

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Posts posted by Snow and storms

  1. Wow, this has to go down as the greatest disapointment ever... a week ago i looked at the synoptics and thought this is finally our real chance to get a proper snowy and cold prolonged spell. I wish i never looked at any posts and went with my gut that was saying something will go wrong because even being in the perfect spot for a full on easterly blast we have ended up with the most pathetic event. 

    Beast from the east? The most inappropriate term ever used, this is like a small yapping dog, with an enoying bark and no bite. A 2 week plus spell got reduced to a week of cold bitter temperatures with -13 wind temps so i accepted that sucks but at least we get a week. Next minute its reduced to a 2 day event of snow all tuesday and a bit wednesday. Going to bed last night i thought ok its started and will wake up to a decent covering with snow showers all day. !!how wrong i was, barely 1cm of snow, nothing on the roads and now the forecast barely shows any snow all day with not much hope for the rest of the week. The cold is then brushed aside with the first low that says ''boo".

    This has been blown so out of porportion even by experienced members, and its this im most frustrated by, if i had posted the south east will only get a 1cm of snow out of that setup and will be shunted away easily i would have been slated last week. We wont even get a single ice day after seeing -16 850temps showing on the charts i thought this would be certain. Everyone including myself has been taken in by the hype of this cold fart and its realy ruined my love of weather watching this time. It feels completely pointless looking at a weather chart now and reading all the intelligent posts, its hard enough working out which members opinions to follow because theres so many people that forecast on their feelings rather than facts including a lot of long time 'experts'. One big example is how many people ignored the blidningly obvious charts showing that the low would fInish our cold spell in the south because cold air is so dense and so hard to move. Rather than actually taking the evidence of what the charts were showing we are all dragged into this hype that The Cold Beast will deflect it like some indestructible bad super hero movie.

    well thats my rant over, ill go back to being slated by the family as 'The Weather Fool' because to them the bbc forecast and daily mail are more accurate than a few thousand weather enthusiasts. 

    One last leaving comment is i recommend setting up a model discussion area that allows only a select few experts with no biased opinions to comment on the charts and leave one open to amateurs and childhood snow dreamers.

    see you all next year for another go round the merry go round! 

    • Like 2
  2. Could the sea ice increase this year be linked to the lack of storms and early separation of the PV which was also common in 1962/63 winter? It seems to me like this is a recipe for creating calm sea conditions in the north would lead to an increase of the sea freezing up nicely, usually there is a constant raging storms rolling around the north through autumn churning up the seas.

    • Like 1
  3. Any other south easterners getting sick and tired of northlies? They are just like dangling carrots for us in the south east corner. Cold little blips, Promising so much early on the charts then always dampened down and never cold enough for us. Would prefer the atlantic train because at least i wouldnt waste hours of my time on here getting excited only to be severly dissapointed. Cant wait for the beasterly to arrive and get a proper bit of winter weather down here! 

    ... and breathe... wow this thread is so needed!

    • Like 2
  4. Not sure if this is the right thread, I had a good look but couldn't find a more suitable place to post it. Although it's not discussing the model outputs I think it's relevant to a forecasting discussion.

    I am intrigued to know what the more experienced members think of this early season colds effect on the sea temperatures and the consequences down the line. Compared to the last few years we had a reasonably cold end to autumn and with the shots of northerly blasts it's been a cold beginning to winter at times.

    Surely the lack of autumn storms also plays a part as this season the seas have been a lot calmer than usual. Does this have an effect on the sea temperatures? For instance a calm pond will freeze a lot easier than a slow flowing river not just because one is continuously moving but because the cold will be mixed a lot more in a flow.

    Will this tie in with a more probable shot of a long term cold winter and has a quiet autumn with a cold start to the season led to colder winters as a whole in the past?

    Also could someone point me in the direction of some SST charts that I and others can monitor to see if it has any effects in this current spell.

    Thanks!

     

     

    • Like 1
  5. Everyone who keeps going on about Heathrow cancling flights, this is pretty standard, they have the whole evening packed with flights due in & out, their visibility is going to be massivly reduced even in sleet, the runway will likely see some snow that will need clearing, it will also need gritting & de-icing which all means they can't land/take off the normal amount of planes in the given time slot. It's pretty irrelevant if the snow is heavy or lays, even a little bit will cancle some flights as they have so much more to do. Give them a break, they are taking the right steps so far.

    • Like 1
  6. I have been following this potential big storm forecast for thursday for the last few days and what i am seeing is that the outcome of this storm will have a massive impact on how much cold and snow we see. A few days ago the storm was being modelled as a major event with some models going down to 930mb and creating a very wide storm that tracked slightly further south than is being forecast now. This in turn meant that as it passed over us it done multiple things. First of all it helped push the azores high further south, the further south the storm tracked. Secondly the bigger the intensity forecast for the storm the more cold air was pulled down at a greater speed, helping to further disrupt the jet and push against the azores high.

    In summary i believe the track and size of the storm may be a huge turning point in our winter, with the american cold weather due to relent finally this comes at a pivotal time. The more powerful and further south the storm the more chance of cold weather digging south over us and gaining a grip.

    • Like 1
  7. After visiting the strat forum for the first time and reading about the possible sudden strat warming forecasts in a few days caused by the wave activity, how is it this does not always result in cold weather for the uk? Surely the weather forecast will lag behind the strat forecasts and this is why we are seeing westerly flows in the charts.

    Is it possible to have perfect strat forecast and still dodge a significant cold spell? (I think I know the answer to this question but I am not sure as to why) or is it likely either the strat forecast is incorrect or the chart forecasts have not caught up yet?

    If anyone with far more knowledge than myself is able to explain why this is possible I would really appreciate it.

  8. The tides for Friday the 3rd look like causing a few problems... This is at a very high tide at 12pm.

     

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    and then again on the 5th-6th the UK gets swallowed by a hungry black hole monster, which will alos coincide with 2 very high tides.

     

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    Could be some record breaking wave heights off Ireland and exacerbated problems with the river tides being pushed even higher with torrential rain in places making for a nasty cocktail.

    • Like 1
  9. Been bad here since this afternoon but things have just gone up another gear now. House rattling and hearing cranks and creaks with every gust. Conservatory flooded fence panels broken.

    Took a drive earlier and saw that the garage roof at texaco had been ripped a new whole and lots of big building boarding panels snapped and thrown about in the road along with an army of darlicks (bins)

  10. Everyone who is reporting the incredible drops in pressure are forgetting about something, when you talk about a storm dropping 24mb in 24 hours they are talking about the centre of the low.

    Everyone is measuring the pressure dropping from there stationary point which of course will drop faster because not only is the storm deepening but the lows centre is also moving closer so you will always get a much increased drop in pressure on top of a already bombing low.

    • Like 2
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