Mark Neal.
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Posts posted by Mark Neal.
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12z compared to 18z. Shows the difference and shift south. All part of the envelope.
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Much more benign day here today, lengthy sunshine. High of 9.3c. Currently 4.8c at moment under clear skies. 2mph N.
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4.4c. 75mm (In form of snow by midmonth onwards... )
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Just had a shower rattle through had some flakes in amongst it. Temp 2.7c. Dew point -1c
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2.6c at moment here in Oxford.
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Lovely sunny afternoon here. Currently 8.5c. 2mph SW Gusting 9mph. Some Towering Cumulonimbus to the NE though.
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Heating on again! It does half get cool/cold quick as the sun dissappears at the moment. Especially when the high is 15c.
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Clear skies here in Oxford to end the day. Started off Bright and sunny overnight low of 7.2c. High of 15.8c today.
Currently 13.5c. Wind 6mph NW.
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Much lighter now but has left a decent covering. Paths/Roads started to get a dusting as temp dropped.
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Took pic at 23:30.
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Good covering on grasses,rooftops and cars. Just starting to settle on pavements, I am at 115m Asl. Temp currently 1.7c
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Heavy Snow here in Headington,East Oxford at moment. Massive flakes, wet snow currently but starting to settle.
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ICON-Very Good
GFS 00Z- Less Good
UKMO 00Z- Very Good
GFS P 00Z- Very Good.
GEM 00Z- Very Good.
Encouraging 00z Runs imo.... obviously the GFS Op is a concern and we will see where it sits in the ensembles coming up. There is a trend to make more of the LP moving up from SE, making it more more marginally further SE, but as the GFSP shows it won't be for long and then the cold air returns even for the far south.. widespread snow potential is still there!
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Horray for the GFSP! Widespread snowfall as the weekend goes on.... far cry from the 18z GFS, 00Z GFS. lets hope that is the one, UKMO. ICON Vvery good too..
357 members online at 4:30am
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10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
Wednesday feels a very long way off, but plenty to keep an eye on just in the next 24 hours! Widespread dusting of snow across much of England by midnight tomorrow according to latest ARPEGE
Yep makes more of the low pressure in the NW, moving through Wales and into SW before clearing Central Southern parts. You also have a secondary feature which moves down from the NE, from the North Sea. Weakening as it heads south.
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GFS 18z for what its worth is further north than its recents runs.. but not as north as the ECM.
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Heavy Rain, 26mph, Gusting 43mph here at moment. 10c. Wild night!
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18Z Harmonie keeps things more western and southern as it comes down from NW, although there is streams of showers/from the E/NE as behind the front. Here is the frames from 3am Monday morning through to 6pm Monday evening.
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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:
This is due to a second front beefing up later on Monday, not the original low for Monday morning which goes back in the channel.
Hard to keep up with this!
Yes your correct! The totals especially centrally and southern weren't much its when the wrap around or pivot comes back through Monday that gives many areas an extra few cm's. The lucky ones from this could see snow for much of the day and get more when the pivots come back around, its an interesting watch!
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Certainly going to be interesting next 36hrs/48hrs. To see what happens with that system coming in from the NW monday early hours and then again as the system pivots and comes around again through later monday and into tuesday morning.
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The aforementioned Euro4. 18z. Shows the low pressure in Ireland and then NW, coming through Wales and does come through parts of central england and southern, not as organised band as ICON but there is still some snow showing and system does pivot through course of Monday.
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18Z Arpege. Certainly not showing a snowy picture compared to the ICON/UKV. It does have a secondary low that moves in off the North Sea later on monday and into tuesday that sweeps down into E.Anglia and then SE.
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Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Accumulations by Thursday. Courtesy of the 18z GFS