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About Styx

  • Birthday November 7

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    Hobart, Tasmania
  • Weather Preferences
    anything locally newsworthy...i'll even take the tabloid press

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  1. No one is talking about the existential threat to the coral reef along that stretch of coastline; already in a weakened state following another mass bleaching event. Huge swells will surely make much more of it vulnerable. A mid Tuesday morning landfall happens to coincide with a high tide...notable storm surge possible. The latest cyclone track map from the BOM ( released 1.5 hours ago ) spares Townsville from a potential destructive event. BOM is updating every 3 hours. Other weather models are not as kind, showing Debbie making landfall closer to Townsville. I see that the town of Ayr has a population of near 10,000 with some fairly basic standard homes. If the outlook stays the same the situation looks dire for property damage/losses.
  2. An intensifying cyclone is approaching Queensland - due to make landfall near Townsville ( pop 175,000 ) on Tuesday morning. Only two other cyclones have crossed the coast this season in remote areas, at category 1/2.
  4. A very warm start to autumn across central and southern Australia. Up to the 19th Hobart is registering an anomaly of +3.0C which is well above the monthly March record. Temperatures are due to fall close to the long-term average over the reliable forecast period so the final figure will be close. We have had 3 days over 30C this month more than the entire summer period.
  5. An apology is a show of empathy with someone else' s continued suffering ( what ever form of suffering that is in a human ). I think a lot of people feel harmed by others because they don't feel others give a hoot about what has been done to them, which creates a sense of inner isolation. If you are talking about institutions or governments apologising for past wronged actions carried out under their name, then why shouldn't they reach out and express an apology and create a healing for wronged actions?
  6. February - Hobart, Tasmania A very dry end to summer with a close to average temperature for the month. There was no temperature anomaly compared to the 1981-2010 figures ( listed below ), but it was +0.4C warmer than the 1961-90 period. Average maximum: 22.9 ( +0.8 ) Average minimum: 11.8 ( -0.8 ). Rainfall: 10mm ( average 39mm ) Rain days ( +1mm ): 4/from 7 This was the driest February since 2003 but it fell short of a historical top ten ranking. February is traditionally the driest month of the year but this year was much drier than normal with an absence of late summer rain bearing systems ( upper low pressure troughs extending south from the continent, cut off lows over the Tasman Sea, or storms on fronts moving in from the west ). These events are fairly irregular. This was an unusual month for not having a 30 degree day, but there were several warm and pleasant days which fell 2 or 3 degrees short. Extremes in daily temperature for February ( records since 1882 ): Highest maximum: 28.1.....22nd ( record 40.1 in 1899 ) Lowest maximum: 17.2.....13th ( record 9.6 in 1964 ) Highest minimum: 16.6.....9th ( record 24.7 in 1912 ) Lowest minimum: 8.5.....25th ( record 3.4 in 1980 ) ---------------------------------------------------------------- This summer will be remembered for an absence of hot days. The highest temperature of 31.3C was the lowest for any summer since 1977/78, and only two days exceeded 30C, the lowest number of days since the summer of 2001/02 when there was a rare one. Nevertheless, this was a warmer summer than average with an anomaly of +0.7C above the 1981-2010 numbers, or +1.0C above the 1961-90 numbers. The mean minimum was 12.5C and the mean maximum was 22.6C. There was more sunshine than average. Summer rainfall was 127mm ( 90% of the long-term average )
  7. A selection of maps from the BOM reviewing the summer. The cool and tropical summer in the west ( wettest on record in Western Australia ) wasn't enough to balance out the heat in New South Wales ( hottest summer on record ) and Queensland ( second hottest ). It is the biggest east-west split in conditions I have seen for a very long time which almost makes looking at the national averages slightly meaningless this time around Summer temperature anomaly ( 1961-90 ) Dec.....+0.7 Jan.....+0.8 Feb.....+0.3
  8. Is there a good chance now that the upcoming summer will break the annual record low based on whats been happening over the last few months? Or is it impossible this far out to determine roughly what that low point will be?
  9. I have made a graph of the extreme heat days experienced over summer in Australia's 8 state and territory capital cities. Summer is about to finish and these will be the final numbers. I have used the 40 degree mark because Weatherzone have supplied the historical averages. I have then gone to the BOM site to count up the numbers for each city going back to the summer of 2000 which didn't long. I should point out that there were a few high 30 degree days ( such as 38s and 39s ) in Adelaide and Perth which traditionally get a few 40 degree days, but also in Sydney and Melbourne which happened to fall short this summer. Adelaide and Perth sometimes get 40C days in November and March as well, but obviously I haven't included those shoulder months. Season 2016/17 40C+ days Adelaide............6 days....( historical average 3.2 ) Perth.................4 days....( historical average 2.7 ) Canberra............2 days....( historical average 0.3 ) Melbourne..........0 days....( historical average 1.5 ) Sydney..............0 days....( historical average 0.4 ) Brisbane............0 days....( historical average 0.3 ) Hobart...............0 days....( historical average >0.1 ) Darwin...............0 days....( historical average 0 days )
  10. Have never been to Perth Weather-history but I have two uncles who migrated over there from central Europe. They were drawn there because of the summer heat and sun. It also seems to be the go to place for British migrants, probably for the same reason. ------ Canberra had its coldest February temperature on record this morning of 2.8C ( average 13C ). A cold pool moved over south eastern Australia yesterday but the airmass wasn't particularly sharp or deep. I haven't been to Canberra either but I am supposing a local inversion layer was at play overnight as nearby Mount Ginini ( 1760m ) registered 1C overnight and a brief scan of the BOM readings from other centres this morning doesn't show up any other big anomalies. Canberra's coldest February nights ( records since 1940 ) 1.....2.8.....2017 2.....3.0.....1985 and 1962 3.....3.3.....1943 4.....3.6......1945 and 1941
  11. A very low cyclone season in the Australia region so far. Just one cyclone in Australia waters since the official season started in November ( it crossed the north west coast as a weak system a few weeks ago ). The average cyclone season ( November-April ) will have 11 cyclones in Australia waters of which 4 will cross the coast. Last season was an easy record low with 3 in total and 1 land crossing.
  12. 30 homes were destroyed in the NSW bushfires. It seems the BBC confused the official fire danger threat by the fire service ( the rare 'Catastrophic' rating for a few districts ) with what eventually ended up happening. The mistake was an easy one to make as the Australian media went into meltdown about the impending threat and so did the authorities. Still, it may have been a catastrophic life experience for families who weren't psychologically prepared that their homes could be lost.
  13. Queensland broke it's February record today reaching 47.2C at the town of Thargomindah. The previous Queensland record of 46.5C was also surpassed at the southern town of St George (46.8) and Ballera (47.0). Some of those readings could go higher. Records ( February and all time ) right across southern Queensland. . New South Wales appears to have had more spectacular heat records today this time concentrated in the north. February records down by 2-4 degrees at a number of locations and consequently all time records go. As at 4pm the New South Wales high today is 47.9C ( second hottest February day on record for the state ) with a few 47s.
  14. I was surprised too. I don't want to dismiss a cold weather day out of hand but I think it's important to point out it was a small area involved and the timing of the onset of the rain was fortunate, setting in after a cool night before 9am and lasting for the 24 hour meteorological day before clearing soon after and the clouds breaking up. I just had a look at the climate trend you mentioned for Perth and yes you right. Increasing summer rain is definately on the increase for large parts of Western Australia.
  15. A scorcher across New South Wales today with 32 weather stations topping 45 degrees including the western side of Sydney. There were two 47 degree readings in Sydney's west just 25 miles from the CBD. Many sites had all-time records, January is traditionally more favorable for extreme heat events. The Sydney city site near the harbour was subject to a seabreeze all day long and didn't manage to pass 40. The state's maximum was 47.6C ( the third hottest February temperature ) after 47.4C yesterday ( fourth hottest ). Canberra recorded it's second hottest February day on record today ( records since 1940 ): 1.....42.2....1968 2.....41.6....2017 ( 11th ) 3.....41.0....2017 ( 10th ) 4.....40.3....2009 ( 8th ) .......40.3....2009 ( 9th ) .......40.3....2009 ( 10th ) There is a fire threat tomorrow as a front works its way northward with much cooler air to follow. With the intense heat moving into southern Queensland on Sunday that state has the best chance it's had all month to break the Queensland February high which is 46.5 at Birdsville