Eskimo

Anyone for another marginal snow event on the 5th? 06z 12z

Why are some people disheartened? If the GFS is to be believed in fi (of course if you are deranged) then it shows low pressure systems gradually tracking more and more south with a chance of snow across the Midlands northwards.

We never sleep.

+1.8C here now and plateauing I think.

Will never beat the time a sharp cold front went through one day in April. Went from 10.8C down to 2.7C in about 15 minutes. I remember standing underneath the gazebo with a T-shirt and then suddenly needing a jumper as it was so cold.

+2.2C here from a high of +7.4C just 60 minutes ago

+2.8C here now, so that's half a degree colder in about 5 minutes. Wow!

Highest temperature was weirdly at exactly midnight tonight at +7.4C, now it's +3.3C. 4 degree drop in over an hour.

Dropping like a stone here, 1.4 degree drop in 15 minutes.

Where is that link Essex Weather, please?

Okay I don't post in here much any more because of my own reasons but I will help you folks out. By midnight the warm sector would be over Kent, much of the northern half of this region will have air sourced from the NE. Precipitation that is currently sitting over Yorkshire will be rapidly pulled back down the country. As it does this, the colder, drier air will filter in and much of that precipitation will fizzle and break apart. However... I have seen wrap around lows that come back down the country and pep up because of the North Sea, and I'm confident that this will be the case this time around as the North Sea is still pretty moisture laden and warm. By the early hours between 3-5am, I'm confident parts of Suffolk, Essex and Herts will see at least something.

It was clearly never going to go ENE, in fact it never even shifted ENE at all! I understand you have a lot more available data in front of you, but how could this system possibly move ENE when the Jet Stream was moving ESE? http://gifmaker.me/PlayGIFAnimation.php?folder=20141226072XRyQdxmQapbdbDBhuQp6G&file=output_6X5noc.gif

How is this in anyway heading ENE? http://gifmaker.me/PlayGIFAnimation.php?folder=20141226072XRyQdxmQapbdbDBhuQp6G&file=output_6X5noc.gif

No it isn't...it's moving SE as expected, the surface pressure charts suggest this! http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?date=2014122620&size=large〈=en&map=eur_full&area=eur

Can someone fill my little southern head with snow comfort? Its still raining out there, no sign of even sleet. I know the pivot could drift south over the southeast, but can anyone convince me ill see at least something tonight?

Yes it's a developing area of low pressure, not one that hits the UK and disintegrates, so expect precipitation to be quite varied at times.

It's frustrating really, watching this system for the last week or so, getting excited and receiving just rain from it. Weather can be so cruel.

Starting to sleet here in North Hertfordshire, I'm pretty sure that's all I'll see tonight. That low pivoting, will it actually drift south over the south-east?

Not going to get anything this far south, even at 100m or so

Please keep this Mods as I think it's important. A lot of people were/are indeed bashing Frosty for his exuberance when it comes to snow. Although, granted, he doesn't post charts to back up his thoughts, but I'm sure, actually certain, he's the anchor for reoccurring members on this site. The traffic on Netweather trebles or quadruples during the Winter period, Frosty's excitable updates are genuinely what people look for and he's one of many that bring new members back onto the forum every time. I understand there are other threads, but if we want people to get interested into the weather and not be scared to venture into this thread, I think some Mods should be more lenient and the members bashing him should allow him to keep his exuberance as it can too serious and droll in here at times.

I know I'm a suvverner but I remember it happening last year. We weren't forecast any notable accumulations, let alone any snow at all. The rain had turned to snow and we received about 8cm.

Really? Surface still very cold with the potential for ice days.

If the UKMO has the track correct, then expect snow from Birmingham northwards, and some wet snow across the Chilterns. The GFS has a large warm sector which limits snowfall to Manchester northwards.

Something like 66 hours until that system hits the UK and the variations are still huge (albeit similar trend) in each model, isn't that incredible?